Nordic Statistical Meeting 26.-28.8.2019, Helsinki

1. Reporting on Accuracy for the National Accounts
October 18, 2019 Helena Kaplan, Statistics Sweden 1

2. Disposition
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1. Introduction
2. Quality concept for official statistics in Sweden
3. Some general features of the National Accounts
4. Describing the Accuracy of GDP
5. Conclusions and lessons learned

3. Quality framework for official statistics in Sweden
• One single template for quality reports which are to be released with the
release of official statistics – makes things simple for the users
• One single quality concept
• 5 main quality components correspond to principles 11-15 in the ES Code of Practice
• Applies to all statistical products regardless of the design
• Determines the structure for the quality report
• Relevance describes the purpose of the statistics and the content of the statistics
(the target characteristics to be estimated)
• Accuracy of the estimated target characteristics in terms of Overall accuracy, Sources
of uncertainty and Preliminary statistics compared to final statistics
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4. Some general features of the (Swedish) National
Accounts
• The detailed annual and the less detailed quarterly compilations are based
partly on different sources and methods
• Both use a large number of sources and involves a variety of methods
• Compilations from the production side and from the expenditure side are
analysed and balanced to arrive at a single GDP estimate
• The annual estimates are published with a delay of 21 months
• Quarterly compilations with a delay of 2 months provide estimates for the
remaining quarters and are the basis for a quarterly disaggregation of the
annual estimates
• The quarterly estimates are subject to frequent revisions
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5. Describing Accuracy of GDP
• The statistical discrepancy – the difference between the production side and
expenditure side estimates – over a number of periods is used as an indicator of
uncertainty
• It is a meaningful indicator only to the extent that the production and expenditure
estimates are independent
• There is a clear indication of uncertainty that users should take account of
• Each source of uncertainty is assessed for its influence on Overall accuracy
(small, moderate or large), with model assumptions and measurment being the
sources regarded as contributing the most to uncertainty
• Data on revisions also advice users no to put to much attention to a single
quarterly estimate
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6. Conclusions and lessons learned
• Although measures of uncertainty are unavailable, it is possible provide quantitative as
well as qualitative information that are relevant for users evaluation of the accuracy of a
complex secondary statistics like the national accounts
• The information can be provided in same format and using the terminology as for a
traditional statistical survey, which improve accessibility and clarity for users of various
statistical domains
• The production of a quality declaration brings together national accountants,
methodologists and subject area statisticians, which is one way stimulate a long-term
beneficial cooperation between the various competences
• Focusing on the accuracy of total GDP only the current quality declaration cannot satisfy
all needs, but adding further details will inevitable increase the complexity of the
document. Therefore, the extensive inventories describing different components/domains
of the accounts are necessary for a broad understanding of the basis for the accounts.
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7. Thank you!
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