The document proposes providing command and control (C2) system users with a mix of rational and naturalistic decision support tools. It discusses how current C2 systems emphasize rational decision making but research shows users also prefer naturalistic decision making that relies on pattern matching and experience. The document suggests developing tools to support both approaches to give users flexibility. It analyzes several existing C2 systems and identifies opportunities to enhance them with new naturalistic decision support capabilities. The goal is to provide the best of both rational and naturalistic decision making.

1. Netherlands Defence Academy
Towards mixed rational-
naturalistic decision support
Prof. dr. T.J. Grant
T: +31 (0)76 52 73261 (Mon-Wed)
M: +31 (0)638 193 749
TJ.Grant@nlda.nl

2. 12 May 09
Outline
Goal:
• To propose that Command & Control (C2)
system users should be provided with mix of
rational-naturalistic decision support (DS) tools
Overview:
• Background
• Decision-making & planning
• Current C2 systems
• Mixed C2 toolset
• Conclusions
NLDA
2
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

3. 12 May 09
Background (1)
NECS-G1 research project:
• “Beyond Situation Awareness: closing OODA loop”
• Research question:
Is it advantageous in terms of operational agility to
construct NEC-era C2 systems based on human
users’ thinking processes?
• Progress:
Benchmarked OODA process model
Rational reconstructed OODA
OODA-RR test-bed applied to computer intrusion
• Next step:
Develop 2G test-bed & apply to 9/11 case NLDA
3
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

4. 12 May 09
Background (2)
Research problem:
• Current C2 systems emphasize RDM:
Select best immediate option
Proven optimal
Requires perfect information & no time pressure
• Research shows users prefer NDM:
Match current situation to known patterns
Applies users’ experience
Fast & tolerant of incomplete information
• Can we provide mixed RDM-NDM toolset?
Best of both worlds
NLDA
4
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

5. 12 May 09
Background (3)
Research reported here:
• Study DS tools in current C2 systems
• Using Control Centre Visit Checklist (CCVC):
Operational-view functions:
• Observe, Orient, Sensemaking, Plan, Decide, Act
Systems-view functions:
• Data acquisition
• Status monitoring
• Situation assessment
• Abnormality detection, isolation, & recovery Grant, 2008
• Planning & scheduling
• Prediction
• Procedure execution
• NLDA
Commanding
5
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

6. 12 May 09
Decision making & planning (1)
Characteristics of decision-making environment:
• Ill-defined goals & ill-structured tasks
• Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data
• Shifting & competing goals
• Dynamic & continually changing conditions
• Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions)
• Time stress
• High stakes
• Multiple players
Klein & Klinger, 1991
• Organisational goals & norms
• Experienced decision makers
NLDA
6
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

7. 12 May 09
Decision making & planning (2)
Feature Rational DM Naturalistic DM
a.k.a. analytic a.k.a. intuitive
Decision maker Novice or expert Expert
Environment Perfect information Changing goals & situation
Unlimited time Time pressure / stress
Inputs Set of options & attributes Current situation
All attribute-values Patterns from experience
Objective function
Option Score options & compare Match situation to patterns
construction Select best option Construct single option
Satisficing (“good enough”)
Selection Optimizing
Key processes Option selection Situation assessment
Pattern matching
Story generation & analogy
NLDA
Mental simulation
7
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

8. 12 May 09
Decision making & planning (3)
Possible mixtures:
• RDM for short-listing; NDM for final choice
• Construct single option & use RDM as checklist
• Drills for decision-making under stress:
Rational, trained actions
Naturalistic recall
Providing both RDM & NDM tools:
• User free to choose
• Flexibility in high-stake situations
NLDA
8
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

9. 12 May 09
Current C2 systems (1)
BMS
ISIS
NLDA
CMS 9
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

10. 12 May 09
Current C2 systems (2)
OODA-RR COSPOL ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS
Observing DA P Y Y P
Orienting SM Y Y Y Y
Orienting SA N N Y N
Orienting AD N N Y N
- GR P P P (CEC) Y
Deciding AI N N Y N
Sensemaking AR N N N N
Planning PS P P N Y
Planning PR N N N N (Gamma)
Acting PE N N N N
Acting CO P P Y P
NLDA
10
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

11. 12 May 09
Current C2 systems (3)
NDM cognitive process ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS
Identifying situation:
• Feature matching N N Y N
• Holistic / pattern matching N N Y N
Diagnosing situation:
• Information gathering P Y Y P
• Belief updating P P Y N
• Situation awareness Y Y Y Y
• Story generation P P N Y
• Analogical reasoning N N N P
Generating option:
• Single option construction N N P P
Evaluation:
NLDA
• Mental simulation N N N N
11
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12. 12 May 09
Mixed toolset (1)
Use existing RDM tools unchanged:
• Data acquisition
• Map display
• Data fusion
• Procedure execution
• Commanding
Enhance existing RDM tools:
• ORBAT browser
• Planning tool
NLDA
12
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

13. 12 May 09
Mixed toolset (2)
Develop NDM tools for:
• Situation matching
• Generating information requirements
• Alarming / alerting
• Safeing
• Diagnosis / prognosis
• War-gaming
NLDA
13
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

14. 12 May 09
Mixed toolset (3)
Using toolset during planning process:
Thunholm, 2006
1. Understanding mission:
Data acquisition; ORBAT; map display
2. Situation assessment:
Data acquisition; data fusion; situation matching; diagnosis; alarming; safeing
3. Generating concept COAs:
Planning
4. Define success criteria:
Planning
5. Develop credible plan:
Planning; map display; ORBAT
6. Simulate:
War-gaming; map display
7. Decide:
Map display
8. Develop mission order:
Commanding; ORBAT; procedure executor
9. Opportunities for proactive DM:
Planning; map display
NLDA
14
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

15. 12 May 09
Conclusions
Conclusions:
• Studied four C2 systems
• Argued for providing mixed RDM-NDM tool-set
Limitations:
• Few C2 systems studied; no air force system
• Proposed enhancements & tools not yet implemented
Further study needed of:
• Additional C2 systems
• Refining CCVC to include NDM items
• Relationship between C2 and information gathering
• Constructing 2nd generation test-bed for 9/11 case NLDA
15
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

16. 12 May 09
Any questions?
NLDA
16
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2