1. Does the existence of drought
influence the frequency of conflict
events?
Theory:
Drought causes resource scarcity,
leading humans to more and more
extreme methods for sustenance.
Tim Maher

2. Literature results: it depends
Several Studies focusing on Africa have determined
that climatic variables are not significant in influencing
the onset of conflict events.
• Security lit concludes that other variables are more significant (conflict
history, percent of population that is powerless, etc.,)
Others looking at a global scale have determined that
conflicts are twice as likely to occur in tropics during El
Nino years rather than La Nina years.
El Nino leads to dry, drought-prone conditions in the tropics.
• What about directly including droughts in regression?

3. Model and Data
robust logit analysis:
onset = civil war outbreak = the first year of recorded battles in wars that generated at
least 25 deaths per year. This variable was generated from the Uppsala Conflict
Data Program/Peace Research Institute in Oslo (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict
Dataset.
pcw= post-Cold War dummy variable = coded 1 for years 1990 and later.
wheatchnglag = change in average annual wheat price, lagged one year. This accounts
for non-regionally located droughts. Data was gathered from the USDA.
cumint = Intensity of conflict, taking into account conflict history. Coded 1 if conflict,
since onset, has exceeded 1000 battle-related deaths, else 0.
gdppc = GDP per capita, data gathered via USDA ERS Macroeconomic dataset.
pwrlpop = percent of population excluded from access to national power. variable
generated by Ethnic Power Relations dataset.
moderate = existence of moderate drought, using historical PDSI data from UCAR.

4. Results:
robust logit - Prob of F-Stat: 0.0000
onset R^2: 0.1667
Variable Coefficient P-Value
Colonial
Post Cold War .5263642 0.019 vacuum
Lagged Change in Wheat -.5683508 0.311
Historical Conflict? -2.100427 0.000 Memory?
GDPpc -.0000908 0.001 Sustenance
satisfied?
Powerless Pop .4521971 0.390
Moderate Drought .4691432 0.041 Other
droughts?
Constant -.4729777 0.025

5. Results - conclusive?
No!
If moderate is
significant:
• severe? -> NO
• extreme? -> NO
Why?

6. Policy Implications
Caution: modern data collection/processing is only just now
beginning to understand the causes of conflicts.
In some cases, droughts may be considered influential.
• future droughts likely to exceed any droughts humans
have experienced thus far
Must analyze conflicts on case by case basis!
• Some common factors, but all conflicts are unique
• Regional analysis can assist with this - I focused on
global