The risk that AV hype will undermine the Safe Systems Approach

1. Autonomously Driven to
Distraction?
The risk that AV hype will undermine
the Safe Systems Approach
David Ward,
Secretary General,
Global New Car Assessment Programme
WRI Ross Centre for Sustainable Cities
Washington DC
23 February 2018

2. Growing ‘Safe Systems’ Policy Consensus
There is a growing support for the Safe Systems
approach and its four key principles:
• People make mistakes that lead to road crashes.
• The human body has a limited physical ability to
tolerate crash forces before harm occurs.
• There is shared responsibility amongst those
who design, build, operate, and use roads and
vehicles to prevent crashes that result in serious
injury or death.
• All parts of the system must be strengthened in
combination to multiply their effects, and if one
part fails, road users are still protected.

3. ‘Blame the Victim’ Rationale for AVs
The usual rationale for AVs is based on a cliché and
oversimplification of crash causation. The claim that 94%
of crashes are caused by human error is erroneously taken
to justify the hypothetical possibility that AVs can
eliminate all these ‘human error’ crashes.
The source of the 94% figure is NHTSA’s 2008 National
Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Study. Overlooked is
the reports cautionary statement: “Although the critical
reason is…important…it is not intended to be interpreted as
the cause of the crash”. In fact crashes are the result of
multiple factors and culmination of events. 100% can be
attributed to human error if account is taken for poor road
& vehicle design, and weak speed management.
By focusing on human error the core AV rationale is
reverting to a form of ‘blame the victim’ syndrome. This
risks undermining the Safe System approach.

4. Safety Gains from Autonomous Vehicles…Still Decades Away

5. Acceleration of EV Fleet Much More Plausible…

6. Autonomous Cars and Zero Fatalities…Beyond the Hype
Autonomous Vehicles (AV) will have zero positive impact on
road injury prevention by 2030. There are still major issues with
software, consumer acceptance, cyber security, regulatory
approvals, transition periods, etc.
There is a real risk that ‘hype’ about the safety impact of self
driving cars will divert attention from technologies with the best
potential to achieve road injury reduction to 2030 and beyond.
These are:
• Electronic Stability Control (in emerging markets)
• Autonomous Emergency Braking Systems
• Intelligent Speed Assistance
The policy priority now should be to accelerate fitment of these
available driver assistance systems to reverse the rising level of
fatalities. These technologies are building blocks towards more
autonomous vehicles and will build consumer confidence.

7. IIHS - Voluntary Commitment
AEB Standardization Forecast
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
50% in 2027
80% in 2034

8. May 2nd New EU Regulatory Action on Vehicle Safety
https://ec.europa.eu/info/consultations/public-consultation-revision-vehicle-general-
safety-regulation-and-pedestrian-safety-regulation_en

9. Don’t be Distracted by AV Silver Bullet Syndrome
Waiting for driverless cars is like hoping for a perfect
vaccine to eliminate a road death epidemic that we can
already control with known treatments.
So we must stop magical thinking leading to ‘business as
usual’ global toll by 2030 of:
21.7 million deaths
875.7 million serious injuries
To avoid this preventable tragedy we need accelerated
fitment of life saving technologies that are already
available, effective, and affordable…used in road
environments that are more forgiving, self explaining
and self enforcing. In short the Safe System approach!
All of which would make life easier for AVs when they
eventually begin to gain significant share of global fleets.

10. Emerging Market NCAPs
Global NCAP gives financial and technical support
to emerging NCAPs in Latin America and South
East Asia. Despite weak regulatory systems in
these regions ASEAN and Latin NCAP have seen a
rapid increase in the availability of four and five
star cars.
In India we have created a ‘Safer Cars for India’
project and this has acted as a catalyst for action
by industry and Government who have mandated
crash test standards from October 2017. A ‘Safer
Cars for Africa’ project was launched in Cape Town
on November 22nd.
Global NCAP is also promoting its #nozerostarcars
campaign to discourage manufacturers from
selling cars that fail to meet minimum UN crash
test standards and score zero stars in NCAP
ratings.

13. Evolution of Renault Nissan’s
CMF-A Platform
The Common Module Family A is the platform
used for Renault’s Kwid sold in India, Indonesia
and Brazil.
The original Kwid was launched in India in
2016 & was crash tested by the Global NCAP’s
‘Safer Cars for India’ programme. The car
scored zero stars as the body shell collapsed.
Further tests have led to improvements in the
body shell and a driver’s air bag equipped
version is now available which scored one star.
In 2017 a revised version was launched in
Brazil with four air bags which scored three
stars in a Latin NCAP test. The safety
improvements are estimated to make the car
64kg heavier than the Indian version.

14. Thank You!
is pleased to acknowledge support from: