A presentation by Mr Ofentse Mokwena (Lecturer: Department of Transport Economics and Logistics Management: NWU) at the Transport Forum special interest group proudly hosted by TCT in Cape Town on 10 December 2015. The theme for the event was: "Encouraging Public Transport". The topic of the presentation was: "Encouraging public transport as a feasible option to passenger mobility" More like this on www.transportworldafrica.co.za

1. ENCOURAGING PUBLIC
TRANSPORT AS A FEASIBLE
OPTION TO PASSENGER
MOBILITY
Ofentse Hlulani Mokwena
North West University, Mafikeng Campus
Department of Transport Economics and Logistics Management
Ofentse.mokwena@nwu.ac.za
018 389 2829

2. INTRODUCTION 1.1 two sides, one coin
When South African households
spend hours lost in transit…
When South African households
spend hours 'stuck' in traffic…
It All Starts Here® 2

3. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG MANY
How can authorities or providers of public transport
tap into domestic and international evidence to
influence decision making processes?
It All Starts Here® 3
PART A: Current mobility context
PART B: Current Policy Trends
PART C: Expanding the way we think of public
transportation services.
PART D: Identifying the potential knowledge
necessary for effective decision making.

4. MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-1.1 traffic, transit,
walking
1. During the peak hour traffic delays in selected SA cities is nearly
70 hours per year for a 30 min commute.
2. In one story, a public transport user reportedly spends 4 hours
to travel to work.
3. Whilst in different tale some learners are found walking more
than 5km to school.
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Table 1: International Congested Time Averages
Peak Delay/hr Delay/yr- 30min Commute Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT)
SOUTH AFRICA 27min 70h 24 918 330km
AUSTRALIA 30min 76h 37 216 892km
EUROPE 28min 71h 74 594 575km
Table 1: Travel Distance Averages
Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) VKT per Network Km Road Network Length
SOUTH AFRICA 24 918 331km 1712km 15885km
AUSTRALIA 37 216 893km 3393km 14631km
EUROPE 74 594 575km 15480km 7776km

5. MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-2 SA urban delay
It All Starts Here® 5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Bloemfntein
Cape Town
Durban
East London
Johannesburg
Pretoria
Peak Delay/hr Delay/yr- 30min Commute Vehicle Kilometres Traveled
Cape Town peak hour delay is 38min, Johannesburg is
34min– annual time lost for a 30min commute is 89 hours and
83 hours per year.

6. It All Starts Here® 6
(StatsSA, 2003; 2014)

7. MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-3 spatial access
Compared to international
cities SA cities are low
density high distance cities.
In Gauteng for instance,
lowest income households
are immobile and travel 20-
30 km to access the city
(work).
It All Starts Here® 7
(Vanderschuren et al., 2010) (Venter, 2014)

8. Sandton and Alexandra reveals the spatial-access nature of
the competition for mobility and access in SA.
It All Starts Here® 8
MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-4 competition for spatial inclusion

9. Between 1993 and 2009 20%
of the highest income earners
earned no less than 60% of
all available income.
SA has a Gini Coefficient of
0.63 today (2015) it was once
the most unequal nation on
earth in 2012.
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MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-5 affording access
World Bank Data http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
African Development Indicators
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/africa-development-indicators

10. It All Starts Here® 10
"Growth in liabilities stems from household consumption
expenditure growth being financed by means of credit,
especially credit facilities and unsecured credit."—Melring, van Aardt, de
Clercq, Harmse (2012) 'South African Household Wealth Index Q4 2012'
MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-6 spending patterns

11. It All Starts Here® 11
MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-7 cost of transport
relative to spending
(Venter, 2011)

12. It All Starts Here® 12
MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-8 cost of transport
relative to income
(Venter, 2011)

13. High income earners tend to spend less than their income.
Low income earners tend to spend more than their income–
given facilitative credit facilities.
Maybe transport services are so costly that low income
households borrow money in order to afford it and
other expenses…
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14. From a modal perspective, walking and minibus taxi use are
significant captivators of the middle to low income groups'
demand for travel.
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MOBILITY CONTEXT: A-9 traffic, transit, walking
(StatsSA, 2003; 2014)

15. It All Starts Here® 15
"…bus subsidies are holding down the price of mini-bus taxi services
because the competitiveness of buses is bolstered by the subsidy."-
Lombard et al. (2001)

16. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG MANY
How can authorities or providers of public transport
tap into domestic and international evidence to
influence decision making processes?
It All Starts Here® 16
PART A: Current mobility context
PART B: Current Policy Trends
PART C: Expanding the way we think of public
transportation services.
PART D: Identifying the potential knowledge
necessary for effective decision making.

17. It All Starts Here® 17
POLICY TRENDS B-1 invaders

18. POLICY TRENDS B-2.1 public transport juggle
It All Starts Here® 18
Figure 2: Patronage and Coverage (Walker, 2008)
Public transport service provision is a balancing act of capturing the
maximum number of passengers and maximising profitable load
factors.

19. Coverage Patronage
Social Needs Geographic Equity Financial Return Vehicle Trip Reduction
* 10% of Disposable
Income.
* Reasonably
accommodate all
user types.
* Public transport
information services.
* 40km/direction
* 1 hour/direction
* Proximity to work
locations in rural and
urban areas.
* 85% Metro population
within 1km from
station*.
* Walking distances
<1km in urban areas
given 100km of
dedicated walkways
and cycle ways.
* Economically viable
with minimum
financial support.
* Peak= 5-10min; Off-
Peak= 10-30min.
* Service Hours: 5 am
to Midnight in large
metros.*
* 80% Public
Transport; 20% Car.
* 20% shift in car trips
to public transport by
2020*.
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POLICY TRENDS B-2.2 public transport juggle
(DoT, 2007; Department of Transport, White paper on national transport policy, 1996)

20. 1. Public transport in South Africa appears to negotiate a future
within three strategic trends:
1. Spatial Transformation that enables affordable access and
mobility for all by redressing spatial fragmentation (Cooporative Governance
and Traditional Affairs, 2014; National Planning Commission, 2012).
2. Establishing viable integrated multi-modal operations that play
a catalytic role within and between urban and rural economies (Pillay &
Seedat, 2007; DoT, Public Transport Strategy, 2007; DoT, National Transport Master Plan, 2010;
VIVA, 2007).
3. Enhancing the proximity to transit and public services
through neighborhood level actions and standards that aim to densify
and compact human settlements whilst capturing value through transit
oriented land uses (National Treasury, 2013; National Treasury, 2014; Clacherty, 2011;
Urban LandMark, 2012; Beg, et al., 2014) .
It All Starts Here® 20
POLICY TRENDS B-2 invaders

21. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG MANY
How can authorities or providers of public transport
tap into domestic and international evidence to
influence decision making processes?
It All Starts Here® 21
PART A: Current mobility context
PART B: Current Policy Trends
PART C: Expanding the way we think of public
transportation services.
PART D: Identifying the potential knowledge
necessary for effective decision making.

22. THINKING & PRACTICE: C-1
Sustainable Mobility
It All Starts Here® 22
“The intention is not to prohibit the use of the car, as this would be both difficult
to achieve and it would be seen as being against notions of freedom and choice.
The intention is to design cities of such a quality and at a suitable scale that
people would not need to have a car.”—Banister (2008)

23. THINKING & PRACTICE: C-2 Holistic
Mobility Thinking
Figure 3: Integrated Transport Planning (Potter & Skinner, 2000; May, Kelly, & Shepherd, 2006)
Two extremes are evident in the holistic approach: a) the travel
economy and b) transportation economy.
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Functional & Modal
Integration
Policy Instruments of Provision
and Management
Transport & Land-Use Planning
Integration
Social Integration
Holistic Integration

24. THINKING & PRACTICE: C-3 views of the
travel economy
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Figure 4: The Transport
System is one of Flows,
and Activities (Zuidgeest ,
PhD)
Figure 5: The Travel Market is
a System of Elements and
Some Distribution (UCT, 2015)
Figure 6: The Public
Transport Framework is
Mutli-dimensional (Onderwater,
2014--unpublished)

25. Behavioral economic research
reveals the formation of travel
habits, decision structures, and
cognitive influences to mode
choice.
It All Starts Here® 25
Figure 8: The Theory of Planned Behaviour
(Ajzen, 1991)
THINKING & PRACTICE: C-4.1 mode choice

26. It All Starts Here® 26
Figure 9: Classification of Modal Choice Determinants Based on Review Analysis (De Witte,
Hollevoet, Dobruszkes, Hubert, & Macharis, 2013)
THINKING & PRACTICE: C-4.2 mode choice
Socio-demographic indicators are not enough!

27. • Travel behaviour (i.e. mode choice)
transcends socio-economic and
demographic characteristics– it may
largely be behavioral.
• Vincent Kaufmann reveals that motility
signifies the social transition a
traveller makes from home (mother)
to work (colleague). (De Witte et al., 2013;
Kaufmann, 2011)
• Julia Markovich and Karen Lucas show
that young children's future travel
behaviour can be bubble wrapped in
private car use– loosing spatial-
cognitive skills(Markovich & Lucas, 2011).
It All Starts Here® 27
THINKING & PRACTICE: C-4.3 mode choice

28. THINKING & PRACTICE: C-5.1 the
transportation economy
It All Starts Here® 28

29. Chester and Horvath argue that there is an entire supply chain of
emissions in the public transportation economy.
It All Starts Here® 29
THINKING & PRACTICE: C-5.2 conceptual
framework of emissions
(Chester & Horvath, 2008)

30. It All Starts Here® 30
Figure 7: An Expanded View of the Paratransit Market in Macro, Meso and Micro Contexts
THINKING & PRACTICE: C-5.3
macroeconomic framework of public transport
(Mokwena, 2016)
One study shows that there is an entire value chain underlying the demand and
supply of transit services. There are more path dependencies.

31. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG MANY
How can authorities or providers of public transport
tap into domestic and international evidence to
influence decision making processes?
It All Starts Here® 31
PART A: Current mobility context
PART B: Current Policy Trends
PART C: Expanding the way we think of public
transportation services.
PART D: Identifying the potential knowledge
necessary for effective decision making.

32. • A holistic view of attractively integrating public transportation
services seems necessary.
• Broader and richer multidisciplinary analysis supply and
demand of travel and transportation services.
• International best practice and retrofitting are not enough–
local methods, surveys, and data collection efforts may add
significant value.
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KNOWLEDGE FOR DECISION MAKING

33. APPROACING THE COCKROACH
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34. CONCLUDING REMARKS
• International evidence is but a valuable learning tool.
• The collection of large, longitudinal, dynamic, multi-disciplinary data,
survey methods and toolkits may demystify what we 'see' in South
Africa.
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35. CONCLUDING REMARKS
• Absorbing such data, methods and outputs may require:
– institutional infrastructure that is well capacitated,
– threshold specific policies (instead of procedural ones) and
– efforts toward collaboration between various entities from rural, urban
and metro areas.
It All Starts Here® 35

36. CONCLUDING REMARKS
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At the end of the day, using evidence to design attractive, viable
and valuable public mobility and access systems is a step closer
to a livable future that accounts for positive and negative
externalities.

37. Thank You!
Any Questions/Comments/Inputs?

38. REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING
It All Starts Here® 38
• Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 179-211.
• Beg, F., Brickford, G., Denoon-Stevens, S. P., Harber, J., Jitsing, A., Moosajee, R., et al. (2014). How to build transit oriented cities. Johannesburg:
South African Cities Network.
• Chester, M. V., & Horvath, A. (2009). Environmental Assesment of Passenger Transport should include Infrastructure and Supply Chains.
Environmental Research Letters, 1-8.
• Chester, M., & Horvath, A. (2008). Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A detailed methodology for energy, greenhouse
gas and criteria pollutant inventories of automobiles, buses, light rail, heavy rail and air v.2. Berkeley: UC Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport:
A Volvo Center of Excellence.
• Clacherty, A. (2011). Creating and Capturing Value Around Transport Nodes. South Africa: South African Cities Network.
• Cooporative Governance and Traditional Affairs. (2014). Integrated Urban Development Framework: Draft for Discussion. South Africa: Department of
Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs.
• De Witte, A., Hollevoet, J., Dobruszkes, F., Hubert, M., & Macharis, C. (2013). Linking modal choice to motility: A comprehensive review.
Transportation Research Part A(49), 329-341.
• DoT. (2007). Public Transport Strategy. Pretoria: Department of Transport.
• DoT. (2010). National Transport Master Plan. Pretoria: Department of Transport of South Africa.
• Kaufmann, V. (2011). Rethinking the City: Urban Dynamics and Motility. Routledge.
• Kennedy, C., Miller, E., Shalaby, A., Heather, M., & Coleman, J. (2005). The Four Pillars of Sustainable Urban Transportation. Transport Reviews, 393-
414.
• Lombard, M. C., Lamprecht, T., & van Zyl, N. J. (2001). Fundamental restructuring of Durban's public transport system- The user preference study.
20th Southern African Transport Conference. Durban: SATC.
• Markovich, J., & Lucas, K. (2011). The Social and Distributional Impacts of Transport: A Literature Review. Oxford: Transport Studies Unit, School of
Goegraphy and the Environment.
• May, A. D., Kelly, C., & Shepherd, S. (2006). The principles of integration in urban transport strategies. Transport Policy, 319-327.
• Mokwena, O. H. (2016). Paratransit Mesoeconomy: Control Measures from the Supply Side? Procedia Economics and Finance (p. Forthcoming ).
Elsevier.

39. REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING
It All Starts Here® 39
• National Planning Commission. (2012). National Development Plan. Pretoria: The Presidency.
• National Treasury. (2013). Neighbourhood Development Programme Urban Design Toolkit. Pretoria: Neighbourhood Development
Programme, National Treasury.
• National Treasury. (2014). Urban Hub Design Toolkit. Pretoria: The National Treasury.
• NPC. (2012). National Development Plan. Pretoria: National Planning Commission, The Presidency.
• Onderwater, P. (2014, June 3). Public Transport and Rail Transport Planning . (E. University of Cape Town, Interviewer)
• Pillay, K., & Seedat, I. (2007). Towards 2020: Public Transport Strategy and Action Plan. Proceedings of the 26th Southern African Transport
Conference (pp. 398-408). Pretoria: SATC 2007.
• Potter, S., & Skinner, M. J. (2000). On transport integration: a contribution to better understanding. Futures, 275-287.
• Statistics South Africa. (2014). National Household Travel Survey. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa.
• StatsSA. (2003). National Household Travel Survey. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa.
• StatsSA. (2014). National Household Travel Survey. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa.
• Suzuki, H., Cervero, R., & Iuchi, K. (2013). Transformin Cities with Transit: Transit and land-use integration for sustainable urban development.
Washington D.C.: World Bank.
• Urban LandMark. (2012). Improving Access to the City through Value Capture: An overview of capturing and allocating value through the
Development of Transport Infrastructure in South Africa. Urban LandMark.
• Vanderschuren, M., Lane, T., & Korver, W. (2010). Managing Energy Demand through Transport Policy: What can South Africa Learn from
Europe? Energy Policy, 826-831.
• Venter, C. (2011). Transport Expenditure and Affordability: The Cost of Being Mobile. Development South Africa, 121-140.
• Venter, C. (2014). Access and Mobility in Gauteng's Priority Townships: What Can the 2011 Quality of Life Survey Tell Us? Proceedings of the
33rd Southern African Transport Conference. Pretoria.
• VIVA. (2007). Catalytic public transport initiatives in South Africa: A critical review. Pretoria: National Department of Transport.
• Walker, J. (2008). Purpose-driven public transport: creating a clear conversation about public transport goals. Journal of Transport Geography,
436-442.