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Climate change and health –
challenges and opportunities
Andy Haines
0
10
20
30
40
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Globaltropicalforestlosscompared
with1700baseline(%))
Tropical forest loss
0
1000
2000
3000
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Worldpopulationaffectedby
watershortage(millions)
Extreme Shortage
High Shortage
Moderate Shortage
Water shortage
6
7
8
9
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Globaloceanacidification(mean
hydrogenionconcentration;nmol/kg)
Ocean acidification
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Temperatureanomaly,°C
Temperature change
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Globalvertebratebiodiversity
(indexvalue;1970=1)
Biodiversity
Human Health in the Anthropocene epoch
(Rockefeller/Lancet Commission on Planetary Health 2015)
Carbon dioxide trends
2oC Target
Projections of soil moisture change
1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario
The availability of water will be different in a climate changed by our emissions
Just how different depends on how quickly we move to a low-carbon world
IPCC AR5
Risk Underestimate? (Lancet Climate Change Commission 2015)
Exposure to thermal stress (monthly mean Wet Bulb
GlobeTemperature hottest month) late 21 st century
(RCP 6.0 emissions pathway HadGEM2/GFDL midpoint)
Kjellstrom T, Lemke B, Le Quéré C, Otto M, Briggs D, Freyberg C, Haines A unpublished
64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
Plus climate-related:
• Flood/storm/fire damage
• Droughts – range, severity
• Pests (climate-sensitive)
• Infectious diseases (ditto)
CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst
MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050
Many millions more people are projected to be
flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s
Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.
Record drought in Syria – risk more than doubled by climate
change
Kelley et al., PNAS 2015
http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2015/02/23/1421533112.DCSupplemental/pnas.2
01421533SI.pdf
 Physical limits: small low lying
islands e.g. Cayman Islands
 Behavioural limits: influence
where we live and why, e.g.
New Orleans
Technological limits: e.g. to the
flood defences
What are the physical, behavioural and
technological limits to how much we can adapt- who
should pay ?
Health co-benefits from the ‘low-
carbon’ economy (avoiding harms)
Through policies in several sectors
e.g.
 Housing
 Transport
 Food and agriculture
 Electricity generation
Health Economic Benefits of reducing air
pollution through low carbon policies
◦ Marginal benefits of avoided
mortality $50-380/tCO2 -exceed
abatement costs ( West et al Nature Climate
Change 2014)
◦ Global Fossil fuel subsidies
◦ $5.3 tn. annually (IMF 2015)
Addressing coal combustion is a
priority
The Future of Planetary health will
depend on cities
Cities responsible
for ~ 85% of global
GDP in 2015 and
71–76% of global
energy-related
greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions.
Newclimateeconomy.report/workingpaper_ci
ties_final_web.pdf 2015
What could cities do for climate change
mitigation and adaptation?
16
Accessible
efficient public
transport and
active travel
Universal
access to
clean low
carbon energy
Safe access to
green spaces
and ecosystem
strategies for
resilience
Housing
Improvements
Water and
Sanitation
FOOD & AGRICULTURE
Mitigation action SLCP-related
climate benefit
Potential health
benefit
Main health
benefit(s)
CO2 reduction
co-benefit
Promoting healthy low-
GHG (plant-based)
diets
High High Reduced diet-sensitive
chronic diseases
Medium-high
Reducing food waste Medium-high Low-medium Reduced food
insecurity/undernutrition
Medium-high
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
kgCO2eperkgfood
Climate change has far reaching and potentially
catastrophic impacts but many ‘low carbon’ policies
can improve health and the economy.

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Day 2 Speaker Presentation - Prof Andy Haines

  • 1. Climate change and health – challenges and opportunities Andy Haines
  • 2. 0 10 20 30 40 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Globaltropicalforestlosscompared with1700baseline(%)) Tropical forest loss 0 1000 2000 3000 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Worldpopulationaffectedby watershortage(millions) Extreme Shortage High Shortage Moderate Shortage Water shortage 6 7 8 9 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Globaloceanacidification(mean hydrogenionconcentration;nmol/kg) Ocean acidification −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Temperatureanomaly,°C Temperature change 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Globalvertebratebiodiversity (indexvalue;1970=1) Biodiversity Human Health in the Anthropocene epoch (Rockefeller/Lancet Commission on Planetary Health 2015)
  • 5. Projections of soil moisture change 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario The availability of water will be different in a climate changed by our emissions Just how different depends on how quickly we move to a low-carbon world IPCC AR5
  • 6. Risk Underestimate? (Lancet Climate Change Commission 2015)
  • 7. Exposure to thermal stress (monthly mean Wet Bulb GlobeTemperature hottest month) late 21 st century (RCP 6.0 emissions pathway HadGEM2/GFDL midpoint) Kjellstrom T, Lemke B, Le Quéré C, Otto M, Briggs D, Freyberg C, Haines A unpublished
  • 8. 64 36 20 80 Percentage change in yields to 2050 -50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100 UN Devt Prog, 2009 Plus climate-related: • Flood/storm/fire damage • Droughts – range, severity • Pests (climate-sensitive) • Infectious diseases (ditto) CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050
  • 9. Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.
  • 10. Record drought in Syria – risk more than doubled by climate change Kelley et al., PNAS 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2015/02/23/1421533112.DCSupplemental/pnas.2 01421533SI.pdf
  • 11.  Physical limits: small low lying islands e.g. Cayman Islands  Behavioural limits: influence where we live and why, e.g. New Orleans Technological limits: e.g. to the flood defences What are the physical, behavioural and technological limits to how much we can adapt- who should pay ?
  • 12. Health co-benefits from the ‘low- carbon’ economy (avoiding harms) Through policies in several sectors e.g.  Housing  Transport  Food and agriculture  Electricity generation
  • 13.
  • 14. Health Economic Benefits of reducing air pollution through low carbon policies ◦ Marginal benefits of avoided mortality $50-380/tCO2 -exceed abatement costs ( West et al Nature Climate Change 2014) ◦ Global Fossil fuel subsidies ◦ $5.3 tn. annually (IMF 2015) Addressing coal combustion is a priority
  • 15. The Future of Planetary health will depend on cities Cities responsible for ~ 85% of global GDP in 2015 and 71–76% of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Newclimateeconomy.report/workingpaper_ci ties_final_web.pdf 2015
  • 16. What could cities do for climate change mitigation and adaptation? 16 Accessible efficient public transport and active travel Universal access to clean low carbon energy Safe access to green spaces and ecosystem strategies for resilience Housing Improvements Water and Sanitation
  • 17. FOOD & AGRICULTURE Mitigation action SLCP-related climate benefit Potential health benefit Main health benefit(s) CO2 reduction co-benefit Promoting healthy low- GHG (plant-based) diets High High Reduced diet-sensitive chronic diseases Medium-high Reducing food waste Medium-high Low-medium Reduced food insecurity/undernutrition Medium-high 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 kgCO2eperkgfood
  • 18. Climate change has far reaching and potentially catastrophic impacts but many ‘low carbon’ policies can improve health and the economy.