Scott McIntosh, Director, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado June 2016 - UCAR Congressional Briefing on Predicting Space Weather Video of this presentation will be available soon.

1. Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Dr. Scott W. McIntosh
Director, High Altitude Observatory
Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research

2. We Live In The Atmosphere Of Our Star
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Courtesy NASA/VisLab

3. Space Weather Impacts on Society
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
The US research community is meeting a new National Space
Weather strategy that will require parallel advances in observational
and numerical science to improve forecast skill for critical systems.
Power Grid VulnerabilityRaw Natural Beauty Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Financial System Vulnerability

4. Critical Needs
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
The Storm Track of Hurricane Ike
Improvements in Space Weather forecasting REQUIRE the
improved estimates of the environment between Sun and Earth.
Before
After

5. Improvements in Key Areas To Improve The Space Weather Enterprise
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Observations of the Sun’s complete magnetic
atmosphere.
Ø Observations of interplanetary space to track
the disturbance.
Ø Observations of the magnetosphere/ionosphere
Interface.
Ø End-to-end modeling capability to interpret the
suite of observations.
Ø Capability to feed next-generation models with
these new observations.
Ø Models to increase forecast capability to weeks
and beyond…. Hunting for extreme event
origins.

6. Solar Observation
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø CoSMO is a suite of three instruments.
Ø CoSMO is capable of measuring the critical
magneto-thermal environment of the inner
solar system.

7. Terrestrial Impact
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
The ionosphere is the nexus of space and
weather in the Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Next generation observations and models of the
Earth’s upper atmosphere are required to study
the balance of “bottom-up” and “top-down”
influence on this region housing critical
infrastructure.

8. Data Assimilation
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Space weather forecast skill will
be increased by utilizing
observations and models
t o g e t h e r t h r o u g h d a t a
a s s i m i l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s
c o m m o n l y e x p l o i t e d i n
terrestrial meteorology.

9. Take Home Message & Hand Off
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Space weather is a full-time concern.
Ø Benign and extreme flavors of space weather
can impact society and critical infrastructure
at different levels.
Ø There could be a hefty price to pay for
negligence in forecasting episodes of extreme
space weather.
Ø Improved observations and modeling
capabilities working hand-in-hand are
required to improve forecast skill.
Ø NCAR is working with the university
community to develop key pieces of
infrastructure at the critical boundaries of the
Sun-Earth Connection.

10. Research Frontiers in
Space Weather, II
Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen
Professor, University of Michigan

11. Nature of Space Weather in Research Community
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Space
Weather
is
to
Space
Researchers
what
Cancer
is
to
Biological
Scien5sts:
A
way
to
demonstrate
the
value
and
impact
of
one’s
work!

12. Role of University Community
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical
investigations, data analysis, and models
Ø Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument
used today and needed in the future
Ø Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of
predictions and improved prediction methodologies
Ø Educate talent equipped with both skillsets

13. Space Weather Facts
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA
and Europe alone
Ø A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage
Ø The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10
years

14. Key question
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours?
Ø Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge
?

15. Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF.
SWMF Control & Infrastructure
Eruption
Generator
Solar Corona
Inner
Heliosphere
Global
Magnetosphere
Polar Wind
Inner
Magnetosphere
Ionospheric
Electrodynamics
Thermosphere
& Ionosphere
Solar
Energetic
Particles
Radiation
Belts
3D Outer
Heliosphere
Couplers
Flare/CME
Observations
Upstream
Monitors
F10.7 Flux
Gravity
Waves
Magneto-
grams,
rotation
tomography
Particle in Cell
Particle
Tracker
Convection
Zone

16. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in
prediction skill among all available models
Ø Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on
NOAA’s super-computers

17. March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather

18. New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in
magnetosphere
Ø Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly
cheaper spacecraft operated as system
Ø Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies
!

19. New Architectures: Severe Storm Example
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of
cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional
technologies
!
!
Cyclone
Global
Naviga1on
Satellite
System
(CYGNSS)

20. CubeSats as Development Platform
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Current
Emerging
Developing
Demonstrated
Within
2
years
Expected
in
5
years
0.1
degrees
0.02
degrees
0.0003
degrees
(arc-­‐minute)
(arc-­‐second)
AAtude
Control
Current
Emerging
Developing
Demonstrated
Within
2
years
Expected
in
5
years
N/A
Inert
gas,
3D
printed
Micro
Electrospray
50
m/s
300
m/s
Propulsion
Current
Emerging
Developing
Demonstrated
Within
2
years
Expected
in
5
years
10
krad
Si
total
dose
Selec1ve
hardened
Radia1on
hardened
bus
12
months
LEO
12
months
interplanetary
Mul1-­‐year
interplanetary
Radia5on
Tolerance
Blue
Canyon
XACT
aUtude
control
system
Astrium
LEON
microprocessor
JPL
Indium
MEP
thruster

21. Educational and Training Challenge
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø Education, mobilize workforce to
Ø Develop new, more compact sensors and
systems
Ø Analyze data with fundamental and
applied problems
Ø Develop and run models for research
and forecasting
!

22. Space
Weather
Predic5on
Next
Steps:
An
industry
and
military
perspec5ve
GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA
June 14, 2016
Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO
Vice Admiral, ret. USN

23. Slide Title
National Space Weather Strategy*
“The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and
private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue
targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks
associated with space weather.”
“The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to
reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce
risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience
of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a
collaborative environment in which government, industry,
and the American people can better understand and prepare
for the effects of space weather.”
.
Introduction
*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/
final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

24. Industry & Military Perspective
National Space Weather Strategy*
1. Establish
Benchmarks
for
Space
Weather
Events
2. Enhance
Response
and
Recovery
Capabili1es
3. Improve
Protec1on
and
Mi1ga1on
Efforts
Public
Good
&
Government
Control
4. Improve
Assessment,
Modeling,
and
Predic1on
of
Impacts
on
Cri1cal
Infrastructure
5. Improve
Space
Weather
Services
through
Advancing
Understanding
and
Forecas1ng
6. Increase
Interna1onal
Coopera1on
Strategic Goals
*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/
final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

25. Industry & Military Perspective
American Commercial Space Weather Association
• Algorithm development
• Automatic event detections (flares, solar
energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs)
• Calibration/validation
• Data assimilation
• GPS modeling and services
• HF propagation
• Numerical modeling and simulation
• Sun, interplanetary medium
• magnetosphere, ionosphere
• thermosphere, lower atmosphere
• Operational implementations /
Research to Operations (R2O)
• Risk and threat analyses for
infrastructure and space resources
• Satellite data analysis & data product
development
• Sensor hardware & modeling
• Software tools
• Application development (web-based and
smart phone)
• Data hosting / data product delivery
• Data / model visualization
• Space Situational Awareness (SSA)
• Spacecraft anomaly prediction and
assessment
• Space weather data product and
service distribution
• Space weather now-casting/forecasting
Capabilities*
*http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html

26. Industry & Military Perspective
Dilemma
?
Federal
Budget
National
needs
To Meet

27. Industry & Military Perspective
Partnership
Federal
Budget
National
needs
Gov’tGov’t
Space Weax
Academia
Space Weax
Commercial
Space Weax
Academia
Commercial
To Meet
Filled by:
Coordinated
National
Public
Private
Effort
Essential

28. Industry & Military Perspective
U.S. Government Space Policy*
• Purchase
commercial
space
services
to
the
maximum
extent
• Modify
commercial
space
services
when
cost
effec1ve
&
1mely
• Explore
nontradi1onal
arrangements
for
acquiring
commercial
space
services
• Develop
USG
space
systems
only
when
no
US
commercial
service
available
• Refrain
from
ac5vi5es
that
compete
with
US
commercial
space
ac5vi5es
• Pursue
opportuni5es
for
transferring
rou5ne
space
func5ons
to
the
commercial
space
sector
• Cul1vate
entrepreneurship
in
the
commercial
space
sector
through
incen1ves
• Ensure
USG
space
technology
available
for
commercial
use
To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall:
*http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf

29. Industry & Military Perspective
Space Weather Industry
Products and Services
Upstream
Mid-Stream
Downstream
• Research
• Observations
• Instrumentation
• Data
• Data Processing
• Computation
• Algorithms
• Models
• Forecasts
• Warnings
• Services
• Emergency Mgt
Value Chain
www.acswa.us

30. Industry & Military Perspective
Military Perspective
• Solar
Storms
will
affect
military
opera1ons
and
readiness
– White
House
emergency
ac1on
will
be
ini1ated
based
on
current
plans
– Assets
may
have
to
be
moved
to
cover
areas
without
power
or
communica1on
– Reac1ons
are
1me
sensi1ve
– Military
forces
rou1nely
train
for
defense
against
nuclear
warfare
scenarios
• Nuclear
Elector-­‐magne1c
Pulse
(EMP)
or
High
al1tude
EMP
(HEMP)
– Caused
by
nuclear
bomb
detona1on
– Effects
vary
based
of
al1tude
and
bomb
size
– Effects
(E3)
similar
to
a
geomagne1c
storm
caused
by
a
solar
flare
– Major
effects
include
communica1ons
disrup1ons
– Detona1on
in
outer
space
could
affect
long
term
viability
of
mul1ple
satellites
• 2013,
House
considered
"Secure
High-­‐voltage
Infrastructure
for
Electricity
from
Lethal
Damage
Act"
(surge
protec1on
~300
large
transformers.)

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Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
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