Collective intelligence (by Frederik Wouters)

4.3 Collective intelligence 1
CONFIDENTIAL Template Innovation Day 2018CONFIDENTIAL
COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE:
A DYSTOPIAN INNOVATION PATH
TODAY, A UTOPIA TOMORROW
Frederik Wouters
Business Development Director
Frederik.wouters@verhaert.com
TRACK 4 - DESIGN FOR A BETTER WORLD

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Collective intelligence

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Companies designing
a better world

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Superminds

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‘’Sometimes the best way to gain
power is to give it away’’

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20K
participants
1 M user,
200K
premium
users

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27bn
weather
data points/y
with a fleet
of 1,500
vehicles
Each vehicle
equivalent of
8,640 fixed
weather
stations
roadsurface
temperature,
road surface
temperatur
moisture

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Building believers of a better world

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How will it gain traction ?
TO NUDGE OR NOT TO NUDGE ?
Discounting
future
benefit
Postponing
investments
Creating a
new purpose
DESIGN
RESEARCH
UNDERSTANDING
BEHAVIOR
DESIGN
FOR BEHAVIOR
INFLUENCING
BEHAVIOR
INTERACTION
DESIGN
ENABLING
BEHAVIOR

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WHAT DRIVES BEHAVIOR
MOTIVATION
ABILITY
TRIGGER
BEHAVIOR = ƒ(MAT)
IT’S EASY TO DO, BUT
THE MOTIVATION IS
LOW BECAUSE OF
FEELINGS OF
DISCOMFORT.
CURIOSITY AND
GROUP PRESSURE
TRIGGERS HIM TO GO
TO ACTION
TAKES ACTION
ABILITY
MOTIVATION
LOW HIGH
LOWHIGH
ACTION LINE
TRIGGERS
succeed here
TRIGGERS
fail here
BEHAVIOR MODEL
(B.J. Fogg)

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INCREASING ABILITY
MOTIVATION
ABILITY
TRIGGER
PRINCIPLE
INCREASE SIMPLICITY
DECREASE LEARNING CURVE
ABILITY
MOTIVATION
LOW HIGH
LOWHIGH
ACTION LINE
TRIGGERS
succeed here
TRIGGERS
fail here
BEHAVIOR MODEL
(B.J. Fogg)
BEHAVIOR = ƒ(MAT)

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TRIGGERS LEAD TO A CHAIN OF BEHAVIORS
TYPES
EXTERNAL : BY SURPRISE
ROUTINE : DAILY HABIT
• CALL TO ACTION
• PROMPT
• REQUEST
• SOUND
• LIGHT
• TACTILE
• OFFER
• ALARM
• ….
ABILITY
MOTIVATION
LOW HIGH
LOWHIGH
FACILITATOR
High motivation
Low ability
SPARK
High ability
Low motivation
SIGNAL
MOTIVATION
ABILITY
TRIGGER

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DO YOU RECIGNIZE THE 3 TYPES ?

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MAKING THEM ACT OR CONTRIBUTE
Get
community
feedback on
your goals
Compete
with other
Set goals
Instant
Analysis

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Creating levers for a better world

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The Network Effect
The effect that one user of a
good or service has on the
value of that product to other
people. The value of a product
or service is dependent on the
number of others using it.
A single data producer creates value through the platform not for 1 but for
multiple consumers /customers.
Data used by 1 consumer / customer generates new data for another consumer
/ customer. The network effect.

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MAKING USE OF REED’S LAW
Reed’s Law : How Multiple Market Networks Make the Long Tail Just
That Little Bit Longer
“Market Networks” provide profiles (users) that project a
person’s identity, then lets them communicate in a 360-
degree pattern with other people in the network.

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MULTI-SIDED PLATFORM

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IT’S NOT NEW: WAZE

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Platform technology for a better
World

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• Use existing infrastructure that or device in the market
• is hyperlocal
• is massively deployed
• has relevant sensors
• has data processing, storage, security, ….
HD WEATHER MODEL

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SOFT & HARD RAIN

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SMARTPHONE MIC

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Motorsound
Roll sounds
Radio on
….
BUT …

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SMARTPHONE / DASHCAM

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PREDICTIVE APPLICATION USABLE IN HD WEATHER
• Predictive analysis (using data driven generation of probability curves) of
weather-parameters : Probability curves related to
• Time difference from past measurement and now/future
• Distance (x,y)
• Probability curves will be generated on
• Historical data RMI
• Real-time data provided by cars/dashcams/smartphones
• Probability model will be actualized with difference between weather estimate and new
measurements (on the time, x,y) coordinates when car arrives at that point
• Estimate of weather vector can be calculated on any (t,x,y) and is defined by
rain intensity from
• Rain wiper from, Fog lights on/off, Outside temperature
• Dashcam or smartphone camera (sound)

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Situation
-x1, x2, ...xn: measurement samples
over time about weather from RMI
-- (y1, t1), ... (ym, tm): measurement
traject of car’s
Question:
- P(rainintensity on place x’ at time t' |
rainintensity on places x1, x2, ...xn on
time t;(y1, t1), ... (ym, tm) )

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Purpose to build a better world

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INNOVATION FOR A BETTER WORLD
25000 road deaths per year in the EU, 1,4 million injuries
approximately 16% of those are weather related
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/sites/roadsafety/files/pdf/statistics/dacota/asr2018.pdf
Other Road
deaths; 86%
FOG; 1%
Rain; 8%
Snow & Hail; 1%
Wind; 1%
Other (not dry);
3%
Road deaths / Weather related
Road deaths FOG Rain Snow & Hail Wind Other (not dry)

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VISION ZERO
Collective
Collaboration
& co-
operation
Community
Engagement
Data-driven
Managing
Speed

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Multisides platforms

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RT HYPERLOCAL MULTI-SIDED PLATFORM WITH PREDICTIVE
WEATHER
Insurance
Life style
Telematics
& Agriculture
Car Safety
Weather
& Disaster service

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WHAT IS YOUR PURPOSE?
Data Consumers Common Goals Data Producers
Needs &
Expectations
SensorsPlatform req.
PURPOSE
Common Goals
NudgingTechnology
Pains &
Gains
Value req.
YOUR
PURPOSE

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SOURCES
• https://visionzeronetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/What-is-VZ_FINAL.pdf
• https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/zero-road-deaths-and-serious-injuries/executive-summary_9789282108055-2-en#page1
• https://www.itf-oecd.org/towards-vision-zero
• http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/129/road-traffic-and-safety-provisions
• https://www.fleetowner.com/technology/qa-weather-based-telematics-and-trucking
• https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/sites/roadsafety/files/pdf/statistics/dacota/asr2018.pdf
• Information from: McKinsey, Curieuzeneuzen, Waze, Strava
• https://platformdesigntoolkit.com/wp-content/docs/Platform-Design-Toolkit-Whitepaper-ENG.pdf
• https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-16581-8_13 (Reed’s Law and How Multiple Identities Make the Long Tail
Just That Little Bit Longer)

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One group, five brands
Our services are marketed through 5 brands each
addressing specific missions in product development.
INTEGRATED PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
ON-SITE
PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
DIGITAL
PRODUCTS
DEVELOPMENT
OPTICAL
PRODUCTS
DEVELOPMENT
VENTURING

Collective intelligence (by Frederik Wouters)

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