1. DR. VERONIKA RABL
Principal, Vision & Results
Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security
October 4-11, 2015
Antalya, Turkey
2. DR. VERONIKA RABL
Principal, Vision & Results
Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security
October 4-11, 2015
Antalya, Turkey
4. 4
Summary
Restructured power sector
most utilities are now distribution companies (LSE)
generation & transmission spun off
the term “utility” lost its meaning
Distributed decision-making
Continuing substitution of natural gas &
renewables for coal generation – profound
changes in grid operational requirements
Fragmented regulatory structure - an obstacle to
progress
5. 5
Topics
U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
Electric generation
LCA exercise
Electricity grid
Wholesale markets
Integrating renewables
Smart Grid
End-use – electric transportation
LCA exercise
6. 6
U.S. Economy in Perspective
Source: Perry, M., “Putting the ridiculously large $18 trillion US economy into perspective by comparing state GDPs to entire countries,”
American Enterprise Institute, June 2015
7. 7
Separated by Common Language?
billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe (?)
1012 = trillion
Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu
MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu
MMBtu is 1 million Btu
Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!
Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV
Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as
18% for H2 fuel cell)
8. 8
Topics
U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
Electric generation
LCA exercise
Electricity grid
Wholesale markets
Integrating renewables
Smart Grid
End-use – electric transportation
LCA exercise
10. 10
All Eyes on Electricity Industry
Electricity use accounts for about a third of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions
11. 11
Regulatory Pressures
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and
existing plants
Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash
disposal)?
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
Performance standards for GHG emissions
Virtually every coal plant must
RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER
12. 12
Natural Gas Replacing Coal
Good News, Bad News
Less expensive than just about any other form of
generation
EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between now
and 2035
May slow momentum or displace renewables
May substitute for storage
Not coordinated with electricity markets
Competition with residential heating
13. 13
Coal down, Gas up → CO2 down
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review September 2013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
MillionMetricTonsofCO2
PETROLEUM
COAL
NATURAL GAS
14. 14
Some Bad News
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531
15. 15
From Net Imports to Net Exports
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA, July 8, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21972
16. 16
Topics
U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
Electric generation
LCA exercise
Electricity grid
Wholesale markets
Integrating renewables
Smart Grid
End-use – electric transportation
LCA exercise
18. 18
Greening the Power Supply
IEEE-USA RECOMMENDATIONS
Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric Generation
Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power Plants
Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation
20. 20
Renewables
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review, September 2015
About 13% of electricity was generated from renewables in 2014
(Billion kilowatthours) (Quadrillion Btu)
21. 21
68 GW of Installed Wind Capacity
Source: “US Wind Industry Second Quarter 2015 Market Report,” AWEA, July 2015; http://www.awea.org/2q2015
22. 22
The Future of Tax Credits?
Source: PTC Fact Sheet, AWEA; retrieved Oct. 2015 from http://www.awea.org/Advocacy/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=797
The Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) expired at the end of 2014
23. 23
29 states and DC have RPS policies
8 more have non-binding goals
Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/
www.dsireusa.org / June 2015
WA: 15% x 2020*
OR: 25%x 2025*
(large utilities)
CA: 33%
x 2020
MT: 15% x 2015
NV: 25% x
2025* UT: 20% x
2025*†
AZ: 15% x
2025*
ND:10% x 2015
NM: 20%x 2020
(IOUs)
HI: 100% x 2045
CO: 30% by 2020
(IOUs) *†
OK: 15% x
2015
MN:26.5%
x 2025 (IOUs)
31.5% x 2020 (Xcel)
MI: 10% x
2015*†WI: 10%
2015
MO:15% x
2021
IA: 105 MW IN:
10% x
2025†
IL: 25%
x 2026
OH: 12.5%
x 2026
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)
VA: 15%
x 2025†
KS: 20% x 2020
ME: 40% x 2017
29 States +
Washington DC + 3
territories have a Renewable
Portfolio Standard
(8 states and 1 territories have
renewable portfolio goals)
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewableportfolio goal Includes non-renewable alternative resources* Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
†
U.S. Territories
DC
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015*
SD:10% x 2015
SC:2% 2021
NMI: 20% x 2016
PR: 20% x 2035
Guam:25% x 2035
USVI: 30% x 2025
NH: 24.8 x 2025
VT: 75% x 2032
MA: 15% x 2020(new resources)
6.03% x 2016 (existing resources)
RI: 14.5% x 2019
CT: 27% x 2020
NY: 29% x 2015
PA: 18% x 2021†
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020
+ 4.1% solar by 2027
DE: 25% x 2026*
MD: 20% x 2022
DC: 20% x 2020
24. 24
44 States + DC have MANDATORY
net metering requirements
Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/
State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities
No uniform or statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering
www.dsireusa.org / March 2015
* State policy applies to certain utility types only (e.g., investor-owned utilities)
Note:Numbers indicate individual system capacity limitin kW. Percentages refer to customer demand.Some limits vary by customer type, technology and/or application.Other
limits mightalso apply.This map generally does notaddress statutory changes until administrative rules have been adopted to implementsuch changes.
WA: 100
OR: 25/2,000*
CA: 1,000*
MT: 50*
NV: 1,000*
UT: 25/2,000*
AZ: 125%
ND: 100*
NM: 80,000*
WY: 25*
HI: 100*
CO: 120%*
OK: 100*
MN: 40
AR: 25/300
MI: 150*
WI: 20*
MO: 100
IA: 500*
IN: 1,000*
IL: 40*
FL: 2,000*
KY: 30*
OH: no limit*
GA: 10/100
NC: 1,000*
VA: 20/1,000*
NE: 25
KS: 15/100/150*
ME: 660*
AK: 25*
State: kW limit residential/ kW limit nonresidential
U.S. Territories:
AmericanSamoa: 30
Guam: 25/100
PuertoRico: 25/1,000/5,000
Virgin Islands: 20/100/500
LA: 25/300
44 States + DC,
AS, Guam, USVI, & PR
have mandatory net
metering rules
DC
WV: 25/50/500/2,000
VT: 20/250/2,200
NH: 1,000
MA: 60/1,000/2,000/10,000*
RI: 5,000*
CT: 2,000/3,000*
NY: 10/25/500/1,000/2,000*
PA: 50/3,000/5,000*
NJ: no limit*
DE:25/100/2,000*
MD: 2,000
DC: 1,000/5,000/120%
SC: 20/1,000*
25. 25
State Incentives Accounted for
Over ½ of Capacity Added 2010-2013
Source: State RPS Policies and Solar Energy Impacts, Experiences, Challenges, and Lessons Learned , LBL Nov. 2013;
http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/seia-webinar-nov-2013.pdf
26. 26
Aging Power Generation Fleet
About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity
was 30 years or older at the end of 2010
27. 27
Decline in Coal Generation
Source: EIA and http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/eia-forecast-fossil-fuels-remain-dominant-through-2040/
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
COAL
Petroleum
28. 28
Coal Retirements Continue in 2015
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, March 2015
Note: Other renewables include hydroelectric, biomass/wood, and geothermal
30. 30
How Long Before Prices Go Up?
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, August 2015; http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview/ngas-ovr-lng-wld-pr-est.pdf
Units: $/ MMBtu
31. 31
Gas shortage at home?!
Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531
32. 32
Nuclear
Traditionally the lowest cost electricity
Clean generation option
BUT
Post-Fukushima public acceptance issues
High initial cost a significant barrier
Aging fleet; last reactor started up in 1996
33. 33
Nuclear Fleet Aging Too
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21
The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is
about 32 years
The oldest entered commercial service in 1969
The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996
Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site
addition planned to begin operation in 2013 2015
U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to
operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC).
34. 34
Two Plants Licensed Early 2012
another in 2015 …More to Come?
Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, July 2015; http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html
35. 35
Major Recommendations/ Nuclear
Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management
program that would close the fuel cycle and
develop a disposal facility as mandated by the
Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982
Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies
to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce
the volume and lifetime of wastes
36. 36
Where will electricity come from?
Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
High risk (carbon regulation)
CCUS?
Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
Renewables may grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
And the rest? Nuclear?
37. 37
Maybe it doesn’t matter?!
Alarming headlines:
All that waste of energy!
The lack of basic understanding of energy
needs, supplies, and processes is astounding!
… but it influences our energy policy and
misleads energy users.
38. 38
Wasted Energy:
The numbers will astound you
Source: “Wasted energy: The numbers will astound you,” Fierce Energy, Oct 2, 2015; http://www.fierceenergy.com
A whopping 54 percent of the total energy used to generate electricity in the
United Kingdom is wasted before it even gets to homes and businesses,
according to a report released on end of September 2015.
The total economic value of the energy wasted by Britain's electric grid is
estimated to be about $14 billion (£9.5) billion (109 ?) annually.
To put this in perspective, this is equivalent to more than half the average
home's annual electricity bill in the UK. The environmental impact of the
prodigious energy waste is arguably even more mind numbingly huge. The
annual carbon emissions attributed to the energy wasted in the UK is
equivalent to that created by every car in the UK.
"If half of current centralized thermal generation was instead directly
connected at the distribution level near demand, the avoided transmission
losses would save energy users £135 million annually," said the report.
39. 39
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: “Less Waste, More Growth,” September 2015; http://www.theade.co.uk/less-waste-more-growth--boosting-energy-productivity-_3479.html
40. 40
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: Paraphrased from comment by Tom Schneider, member of IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee; http://www.fierceenergy.com
Electricity is used to provide light and mechanical work as well as
computation, communications and control. These services cannot be
provided by water at ~80 deg F.
With a heat pump even a generator with “losses” of 2/3 delivers more useful
"heat" than combined heat and power. Very little electricity is used to
generate heat through resistors.
The “lost” energy is not the rejected heat at ambient to water and air but the
high temperature which might be used in a topping cycle. Today’s natural gas
combined cycle systems are close to the practical limits of efficiency given our
current materials and the available flame temperature.
LEARN THE LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS AND SAVE ENERGY!
41. 41
CHP Efficiency
What’s Wrong with this Picture?
Source: EPA; retrieved Oct. 2, 2015 from http://www3.epa.gov/chp/basic/methods.html (now with some explanations)
42. 42
Biomass
LCA is difficult because of the importance of
temporal dimension and indirect impacts, e.g.,
arable land and water.
EPA still working on the subject, but some states
provide incentives
WE HAVE THE ETHANOL EROI PROBLEM
NOW WE ARE ABOUT TO TOP IT!
43. 43
Europe’s climate policies…
Source: Washington Post, June 15, 2015
…led to more trees being cut down in the U.S.
“Every morning, logging crews go to work in densely wooded bottomlands along the
Roanoke River, clearing out every tree and shrub down to the bare dirt. Each day, dozens of
trucks haul freshly cut oaks and poplars to a nearby factory where the wood is converted
into small pellets, to be used as fuel in European power plants.
Soaring demand for woody fuel has led to the construction of more than two dozen pellet
factories in the Southeast in the past decade, along with special port facilities in Virginia and
Georgia where mountains of pellets are loaded onto Europe-bound freighters. European
officials promote the trade as part of the fight against climate change. Burning “biomass”
from trees instead of coal, they say, means fewer greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”.
“can increase carbon emissions relative to coal for many
decades — anywhere from 35 to 100 years”
44. 44
Wood Pellets – Big Business
Source: Wood Pellets Are Big Business (And For Some, a Big Worry”’ Forbes, February 2015
45. 45
Where will electricity come from?
Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
High risk (carbon regulation)
CCUS?
Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
Renewables may grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
And the rest? Nuclear?
46. 46
Electricity – Engine of Progress
Developed from EIA data
Electrification
• Electricity use is
increasing in both
absolute and
RELATIVE terms
Increasing energy
productivity
• It takes less-and-less
energy to fuel the
economy0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%primaryenergyusedforelectricity
ThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollars
Energy
Use/$GDP
Electricity
Fraction
50. 50
Network of
10,000 power plants (~1,000 GW, ~4,000 billion kWh)
150,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission
lines
Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines
More than 12,000 substations
~150 million customers
U.S. Electric Grid
51. 51
Complex and Splintered Market
and Regulatory Regime
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
SCSC MOMO
MEME TOTO
SOSO
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
RC MO
BA TO
TOP
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
RC-
MO - Market Operator
TOP -
- Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
RC– Reliability Coordinator
MO – Market Operator
TOP – TransmissionOperator
BA – Balancing Authority
TO – TransmissionOwner
Many players
Not necessarily
conducive to
cooperation or
optimal system
design
Market
efficiency vs.
system
efficiency
52. 52
NERC Regions & Balancing
Authorities
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
53. 53
Wholesale Markets & Operations
Federal jurisdiction
Source: NERC (RTO – Regional Transmission Organization, ISO – Independent System Operator)
54. 54
Markets vs. Electricity
Is electricity a commodity?
Public goods elements?
Market efficiency or system efficiency?
Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit
laws topology
RTO market rules are not uniform
55. 55
State Jurisdiction
Retail rates for regulated utilities
Construction of transmission, new generation
Implementation of environmental regulations
The regulatory structure has built-in conflicts
60. 60
Incentives for renewables
Renewable portfolio standards
Net metering
Tax incentives
Increasing wind (transmission) and solar
(distribution)
Some “interesting” dilemmas for organized
markets – priority, negative bids
61. 61
Operational Impacts
Source: Renewable Energy Futures, Vol. 4, NREL
Steeper ramps
and lower
turndown
levels require
increased
flexibility for
systems with
large amounts
of wind
64. 64
U.S. DOE asked IEEE for insights on
a specific set of priority issues
IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW
Effects of renewable intermittency on the grid and the potential role of
storage
Business case issues related to microgrids and distributed generation (DG),
including rooftop photovoltaics
The technical implications for the grid of electric vehicle (EV) integration
The implications and importance of aging infrastructure and the options for
addressing these challenges, including asset management
Recommendations for metrics for addressing Smart Grid issues, especially to
help policy makers determine the importance and necessity of protocols
Skilled workforce issues
Report cards on the condition and performance of the electric grid
IEEE QER Report: http://www.ieee-pes.org/qer
65. 65
Renewable Intermittency & Storage
Grid Level:
Uncertainty of renewable sources can be tolerated at penetration
levels around 30% (system studies and real world experience)
Traditional power system planning and operations need to be
updated, incl. cooperation among balancing areas
Energy storage, while a useful and flexible system tool, is not
essential as other often more cost-effective options are available,
such as fast responding generation and demand response
IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW
66. 66
Renewable Intermittency & Storage
Distribution: High penetration
of renewable DG creates
challenges; solutions include
Low-cost distributed storage systems
Advanced power electronics
technologies
Real-time monitoring, control and
automation.
Before DG
After DG
Distribution
Voltage Profile
67. Critical Needs
Standards
Interconnection (based on static and dynamic conditions)
Big data handling, stream computing and analytics
Software/Models
Tools/process models for integrated systems analysis and
operation
Policy
Address issues associated with devices that operate
across institutional, regulatory, and information
architectural boundaries
67
69. 69
Optimized Hybrid Microgrids
Power grid and micgrogrids must work synergistically to
fulfill all the needs, e.g. serving all the load all the time
Policy should support value creation and not unduly favor
either incumbent utilities or non-utility MG sponsors
Assessing costs should include efficiency, reliability, safety,
optimizing life-cycle costs, and resilience for the grid
Costs and benefits apportioned in a multi- stakeholder microgrid
business case
Regulatory policy to reward costs incurred in planning,
operational changes, and the optimal integration of assets
New tools and Standards, e.g. IEEE 1547 Series
71. 71
Major Infrastructure Issues
Increasingly complex and competitive bulk
power market is adding stress to the grid
Grid congestion and higher transmission losses
Higher rates for electricity
Splintered physical and market jurisdictions
impede
effective coordination between large-scale and distribution-
scale technology options
rational system planning
72. 72
Building a Stronger and Smarter
Electrical Energy Infrastructure
Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid
Expanding the Transmission System
Accommodating New Types of Generation and
New Loads
Variable generation
Local generation, PV; microgrids
Plug-in vehicles
73. 73
Smart Grid Promise
Source: Adapted from Massoud Amin, Smart Grid definition, 01-27-1998
Highly Instrumented
Advanced Sensors and Computing
Interconnected by a
Communication Fabric that Reaches Every Node
POWER OF INFORMATION
REDUCING COSTS OF
ELECTRICITY OR REDUCING
RATE OF INCREASE IN COSTS
SUBSTITUTING INTELLIGENCE
FOR PHYSICAL ASSETS
ENGAGING CONSUMERS
ENHANCING EFFICIENCY
ENSURING RELIABILITY AND
REDUCING OUTAGES AND
OUTAGE DURATION
ENABLING RENEWABLES
ENABLING ELECTRIC
TRANSPORTATION
75. 75
Creating New Capabilities
Must build the enabling infrastructure
Funding for open standard communications protocols
Removing institutional barriers
Data → Knowledge → Whole new spectrum of
applications
From better grid management…
…to new services for consumers
76. 76
Topics
U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
Electric generation
LCA exercise
Electricity grid
Wholesale markets
Integrating renewables
Smart Grid
End-use – electric transportation
LCA exercise
77. 77
Transportation
National Security Risk
Vital economic sector
Almost entirely oil
About 70% of entire U.S. petroleum use
Major Source of Pollutants
Urban smog
About 30% of U.S. GHG emissions
Cannot capture dispersed emissions
78. 78
Transforming Transportation
by Diversifying Energy Sources
Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
Developing and Using Alternative Transportation Fuels
79. 79
Electric and Hybrid Transportation
• Heated discussions concerning the impact of
these vehicles on energy efficiency and
environment, including GHG emissions
• Questions are being raised about the costs of
various options relative to their benefits
• Impact of the new vehicles on T&D and electric
load growth
80. 80
Where the Energy Goes
Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)
GASOLINE
ENGINE
EFFICIENCY
Tank
-to-
Wheels
14 –16%
82. 82
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Well to refinery = .95
Refining to gasoline = .85
Gasoline delivery = .97
Tank to wheels = .14 – .16
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
83. 83
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Delivered to power plant = .95
Power generation = .35 - .45
Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93
Plug to battery = .80 - .90
Battery to wheels = .80 - .90
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
84. 84
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
85. 85
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
86. 86
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
Plug into a coal plant to reduce emissions?!
87. 88
Vehicles Responsible for Most
Precursors of Smog
Source: Our Nation's Air - Status and Trends through 2010, EPA-454/R-12-001, February 2012 (http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2011/)
DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL TOTAL EMISSIONS ESTIMATES BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR SPECIFIC POLLUTANTS, 2010
88. 89
Judge by the Future, Not the Past
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 20212, Early Release
U.S. generation mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon
options, led by growth in renewables and gas
89. 90
Integrating PEVs
Source: “Survey Says: Over 40% of American Drivers Could Use an
Electric Vehicle,” Union of Concerned Scientists, December 2013
So why plug in?
Electric vehicles are more fun to drive
and emit less pollution
About 330,000 PEVs on the road
Generation and transmission
systems can handle millions of
plug-in electric vehicles
Good understanding of technical
issues on the distribution system
Potential overloads of distribution
transformers and circuits
Changes in equipment cooling
patterns
Inability to accommodate high-
power charging in older
neighborhoods with legacy
distribution infrastructure
90. 91
Does everyone need a fast charger?
Source: Bob Bruninga, IEEE Transportation Committee, http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html
How long does it take to charge the battery for 32 miles?
$300 cord comes with all EVs and outlets exist
Level-1 in 8 hours
$2,000 installed
Level-2 in 2 hours
Source:BobBruninga,IEEE TransportationCommittee,http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html
BUT
Over 40% of cars drive less
than 30 miles/day
An average PEV
• needs only 5 -
10 kWh/day
• can charge from a
standard electric outlet
in 4 - 7 hours
DEMAND MANAGEMENT
an effective complement to other distribution system measures
92. 93
U.S. DOE EV Everywhere
Grand Challenge
Source: “EV Everywhere Grand Challenge: DOE's 10-Year Vision for Plug-in Electric Vehicles”; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/ev-
everywhere-grand-challenge-does-10-year-vision-plug-electric-vehicles
GOAL:
PRODUCE PLUG-
IN ELECTRIC
VEHICLES THAT
ARE AS
AFFORDABLE BY
2022 AS A 2012
GASOLINE-
POWERED VEHICLE
93. 94
U.S. DOE EV Everywhere
Grand Challenge
Source: Vehicle Technologies Office: Batteries; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries
BATTERY GOALS:
Reduce the production cost of an electric vehicle
battery to a quarter of its current cost
Halve the size of an electric vehicle battery
Halve the weight of an electric vehicle battery
Achieving these goals would result in:
Lowering battery cost from $500/kWh to $125/kWh
Increasing density from 100 Wh/kg to 250 Wh/kg, 200
Wh/l to 400 Wh/l, and 400 W/kg to 2000 W/kg
95. 96
Topics
U.S. energy sector - drivers of change
Electric generation
LCA exercise
Electricity grid
Wholesale markets
Integrating renewables
Smart Grid
End-use – electric transportation
LCA exercise
96. 97
Energy Situation
ENERGY is fundamental for assuring
Economic prosperity
National security
Environmental protection
ELECTRICITY will continue playing a key role in
addressing the challenges
Responding to environmental pressures
Ability to accommodate rapid changes in technology
and uncertainties in supplies
97. 98
Need to take Action NOW
With each passing year
Global pressures will continue destabilizing
energy markets and prices
Threat to the economy and national security is growing
Global warming impacts
We must invest in technology
Become better energy stewards
Reduce impacts on the environment
Electricity is critical in reaching these goals