4. What Voters to Target? Using Traditional Voter Lists Sporadic Voters ID ’d Supporters 65+ Precincts Key Highly Supporting Demographics Key Highly Supporting Issue Voters GOTV Universe
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6. Effectiveness of Types of Contact GOTV Tactic Relative Impact Door-to-door canvassing Most powerful Conversational phone call (completed in week before election) 50% of door-to-door canvass Text Message right before election (younger voters –group who got cell number) 30% of door-to-door canvass Door hanger left at un-contacted house (while canvassing in week before election) 10% of door-to-door canvass Scripted/rushed phone call (completed in week before election) 5% of door-to-door canvass Single piece of mail (in week before election) 5% of door-to-door canvass GOTV robocalls 0% of door-to-door canvass GOTV emails 0% of door-to-door canvass
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11. Effective GOTV Scripts: Not just “reminding” to vote Hi Sue, this is Javier – I ’m a local volunteer from the O’Byrne campaign. Last month when the campaign called you promised to vote. Are you still planning on voting? Great! Turnout is predicted to be very high so I am glad you’re one of thousands of O ’Byrne supporters pledged to vote. As a campaign we ’ re hoping to get 4,500 people to the polls to win, and when we check the voter file after the election, I hope we see that you ’ re among the people who kept their promise to turn out this year. Thanks for helping us reach our goal! Your polling place is Hobart Elementary School. Do you know where that is? The campaign will be monitoring turnout at the polling stations tomorrow to ensure all our supporters have a chance to vote. When are you planning to vote? Do you need a ride? Any other questions? Thanks again for your vote. We ’ll see you at the polls! Have a great evening!
12. Effective GOTV Scripts: Not just “reminding” to vote Hi Sue, this is Javier – I ’m a local volunteer from the O’Byrne campaign. Last month when the campaign called you promised to vote. Are you still planning on voting? Great! Turnout is predicted to be very high so I am glad you’re one of thousands of O ’Byrne supporters pledged to vote. As a campaign we ’ re hoping to get 4,500 people to the polls to win. When we check the voter file after the election to see how we did, I hope you’re among the people who kept their promise to turn out this year. Thanks for helping us reach our goal! Your polling place is Hobart Elementary School. Do you know where that is? The campaign will be monitoring turnout at the polling stations tomorrow to ensure all our supporters have a chance to vote. When are you planning to vote? Do you need a ride? Any other questions? Thanks again for your vote. We’ll see you at the polls! Have a great evening! Local Remind of Commitment Part of the herd Public Record Making a Plan
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Notes de l'éditeur
In 2010, 19 million people – 22% of voters voted early. http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html
Obama voters dropped an add’l 10 million voters Source ABC news Exitpoll: http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2010/11/obamas-no-shows-29-million.html
Sporadic= 1-2 of last 4 elections Modeled lower turnout probability voters Newly registered voters The subsets of sporadic voters (1 or 2 of last 4 elections) that we want to talk to during GOTV include: Known supporters People who live in precincts that vote for candidates like ours at least 65% of the time (2/3 voters will be with us) People with demographic backgrounds or support issues that are with us the overhwelming majority of the time.
Emphasize local connection Examples : I ’m a volunteer with the Riverton Latino Club … I ’m a neighbor from the Hawthorne neighborhood Help make plan to vote Examples : When are you planning to vote? Is that when you usually vote? How will you get there -- do you need a ride? Will you vote before or after work? Will you vote alone or with a friend or family member? At heart we are herd animals Examples : We expect a high voter turnout so every vote is important … Thanks for voting and joining thousands of other supporters … We hope you ’ll be part of making history … What doesn ’t work: We expect a low turnout so every vote counts…
Emphasize local connection Examples : I ’m a volunteer with the Riverton Latino Club … I ’m a neighbor from the Hawthorne neighborhood Help make plan to vote Examples : When are you planning to vote? Is that when you usually vote? How will you get there -- do you need a ride? Will you vote before or after work? Will you vote alone or with a friend or family member? At heart we are herd animals Examples : We expect a high voter turnout so every vote is important … Thanks for voting and joining thousands of other supporters … We hope you ’ll be part of making history … What doesn ’t work: We expect a low turnout so every vote counts…
![Remember: “Election Day” is now whenever the person votes! ,[object Object],[object Object],2008: 32 million, 27% voted early -a record! 2010: 19 million, 22% voted early Absentee vote by mail Early voting](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)