The Global Situation and Prospects
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Presented by Jerome Glenn How do we handle the world’s major challenges? This session will provide a framework to better understand global change and what is strategic for the future of civilization. Worldwide synergies and cross-impacts will be cited among sustainable development, climate change, water, demographics, democratization, ICT, development gaps, health and disease, global foresight and decision making, conflict and security, gender relations, organized crime, energy, S&T, global ethics, and education.
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The Global Situation and Prospects
- 1. Global Situation And Prospects for the Future Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
- 2. ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition The World is in a Race Between implementing and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. Global Collective Intelligence can help… Win the Race
- 3. How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 1 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? 3 How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 5 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? 8 How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9 How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? 11 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? 12 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 14 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges
- 4. 2013 State of the Future Index
- 5. WorldWorld Report CardReport Card Where are We Winning?
- 6. Where are We Losing? WorldWorld Report CardReport Card
- 7. What is Unclear or not Changing? WorldWorld Report CardReport Card
- 8. High Impact/Synergetic Actions affecting 4 or more Global Challenges 1. Establish a U.S.-China 10-year environmental security goal to reduce climate change and improve trust. (1,2,3,5,10,13,14) 2. Grow meat without growing animals, to reduce water demand and GHG emissions. (1,2,3,13,15) 3. Develop seawater agriculture for biofuels, carbon sink, and food without rain. (1,2,3,13,) 4. Build global collective intelligence systems for input to long-range strategic plans. (1-15) 5. Create tele-nations connecting brains overseas to the development process back home. (4,6,7,8,9,11,14) 6. Establish trans-institutions for more effective implementation of strategies. (1-15) 7. Detail and implement a global counter-organized crime strategy. (4,7,11,12,15) 8. Use the State of the Future Index as an alternative to GDP as a measure of progress for the world and nations. (1-15)
- 9. Executive Summary Chapter 1 – 15 Global Challenges Chapter 2 – Hidden Hunger Chapter 3 – Coast Zones Chapter 4 – Lone Wolf and SIMAD Chapter 5 – Global Futures Intelligence System 247 Pages over 50 charts and graphs
- 10. New this year are info graphics for all 15 Global Challenges on-line version
- 12. 4. Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs Potential Global Assessment by The Millennium Project
- 13. 1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world 2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ pages of futures research by The Millennium Project 3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining Global Futures Intelligence System
- 14. Collective Intelligence • It emerges from the integration and synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts and others with insight • that continually learns from feedback • to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions • than these elements acting alone.
- 15. An Application of Collective Intelligence: Go to the Wi-Fi, if not, then continue slides
- 16. Menu for each Global Challenge & Groups 1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies 2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future 3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable) 4. Scanning (annotated, rated information) 5. On-going Real-Time Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments 6. Public comments 7. Discussion groups 8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models 9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos 10. Updates – all edits 11. Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions
- 19. … May become a TransInstitution The Millennium Project
- 20. 50+ Millennium Project Nodes... Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
- 21. For further information: Jerome.Glenn@ Millennium-Project.org 202-686-5179 StateoftheFuture.org themp.org Global Futures Intelligence System
- 22. For further information The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org www.StateoftheFuture.org www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)
Notes de l'éditeur
- International S&T Organization was created in this study: OTA revisited Evolves from an information system De facto regulator Aspects of ISTO: Form international guidelines with eminent experts Provide access to information about risk and opportunity Create a global S&T fund Produce annual Davos-like S&T forums Engage media and politicians to improve S&T discussion Create international treaties as consensus evolves