1. IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIAN
ECONOMIC BOOMS ON THE
ENVIRONMENT
Manish Bapna
Executive Vice President, WRI
(Photo: Andreas/Flickr)

2. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
5. Politics Going Forward

3. WRI’S MISSION | To move human
society to live in ways that protect
Earth's environment and its capacity
to provide for the needs and aspirations
of current and future generations.

4. WRI’S WORK | We work with
governments, companies, and civil society
to build solutions to urgent environmental
and development challenges.

5. WRI’S APPROACH
Managing for Results
Scaling IMPACT Analysis
Partnerships

6. WRI GLOBAL PRESENCE
Institutional
Project staff on ground, deep
partnership, and/or project office
At least one partner

7. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
5. Politics Going Forward
(Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr)

8. GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT?
16
14
12
China
2013
(8.2%)
GDP growth (%)
10
8
6
India
4
2013
(5.9%)
2
0
1994-2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
(IMF, 2012)

9. SHIFTING POWERS

10. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

11. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS
 3 billion added by 2030
 90% of growth in Asia – mostly India and China
(Photo: ben124/Flickr)

12. CHINESE CITIES GROWING QUICKLY
530 Million people living
in cities in 2005
78%
urban
930 Million people living
in cities in 2025
contribution
to GDP
INDIAN CITIES SLOWER
315 Million people living
in cities in 2008 39%
Urban
contribution to
530 Million people living
in cities in 2025 GDP
(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, )

13. ARE WE RUNNING OUT?
Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars)
250
Food
Energy
Timber
200
Fertilizers
Metals and Minerals
Price in real 2005 dollars
150
100
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)

14. CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
Share of the world total
53%
47% 48%
45%
28%
Iron Ore
Cement
Steel
10%
Coal
CO2
GDP

15. AND INDIA IS A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER
Share of the world total
8%
6% 5% 4%
3% Coal
CO2
Steel
GDP
Oil

16. CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IS MASSIVELY COSTLY
10
Cost of environmental degradation as
9.2% OF GDP
8
% of GDP equivalent
6
4
2
0
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

17. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
5. Politics Going Forward

18. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
(WRI, 2012)

19. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
INDIA
(WRI, 2012)

20. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
CHINA
INDIA
(WRI, 2012)

21. COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK

22. COAL | NEGATIVE HEALTH IMPACTS
Average PM 2.5 Concentrations 2008 - 2010

23. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

24. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

25. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
2011
6
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

26. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
10 2009
2010
Average Henry Hub spot price ($)
8
2011
6
2012
4
2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(EIA, 2009-2012)

27. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES
100 – 500 trillion ft3
500- 1000 trillion ft3
1,000 + trillion ft3
N.B. Estimates for Russia and the Middle East are not included
(EIA, 2011)

29. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA LEADS
Renewable energy installed capacity
140
120
100
Gigawatts
80
60
40
20
0
China
China United Germany Spain
U.S. Germany Spain ItalyItaly Japan
Japan India
India France
France Brazil
Brazil
States
(Pew, 2012)

30. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIA
Total Invested in 2011: $10.2 billion
Distribution by Sector, 2005 – 2011
15%
2%
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
52%
Other Renewables
31%

31. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA
Total invested in 2011: $45.5 billion
Distribution by Sector, 2005 – 2011
3% 1%
13%
Wind
Solar
14% Other Renewables
Biofuels
69% Efficiency & low carbon
Tech/services

32. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA’S GOALS FOR 2020
160
120
GW of Energy
Installed capacity
80
Target
40
0
Wind Biomass Solar
(Pew, 2012)

33. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIA’S GOALS FOR 2012
20
16
GW of Energy
12
Installed capacity
8 Target
4
0
Wind Biomass Solar
(Pew, 2012)

34. WATER | BASELINE WATER STRESS

35. WATER | WHERE FLOOD RISK IS GREATEST

36. WATER | WHERE DROUGHT THREATENS

37. FOOD | WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN 2025

38. FOOD | CROP YIELDS UNDER THREAT
(World Bank, World Development Report 2010)

39. FORESTS | DEMAND DRIVES GLOBAL DEFORESTATION

40. FORESTS | POTENTIAL EXTENT
Potential Extent of Forests and Woodlands
Where forests would grow if climate and soils were the only constraint

41. FORESTS | CURRENT EXTENT
Current Extent of Forests and Woodlands
Where they are today

42. FORESTS | RESTORATION OPPORTUNITIES

43. CITIES | INDIA’S AIR POLLUTION
Thousand premature
630,000 deaths from air
pollution in 2010
78% Of Indian cities exceeding
PM10 limits
(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2012, )

44. CITIES | CHINA’S AIR POLLUTION
Days in January
14 with AQI “very
unhealthy” or
“hazardous”
January’s average
199 PM 2.5 air quality
index – “unhealthy”

45. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
• Climate Change
• Resource Consumption
• Clean Energy Trade War
5. Politics Going Forward

47. CLIMATE CHANGE | TOTAL & PER CAPITA EMISSIONS
12,000 30
10,000 25
MT CO2e per Capita
8,000 20
MT CO2e Total
6,000 15
4,000 10
2,000 5
0 0

48. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE
Ambition in China’s 12th Five Year Plan
↓16% ↓17%
Energy intensity Carbon intensity
11% ↑1.25 M
Non-fossil fuel hectare increase in
energy domestic forest cover
Sources: Deborah Seligsohn on ChinaFAQs; The Climate Group; Reuters

49. CHINA’S CARBON TRADING PILOTS
Carbon Trading Pilots
Low-Carbon Provinces & Cities

50. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE
India’s National Action Plan for Climate Change
↓20-25%
Emissions intensity reduction
by 2020 under 2005 levels
20 GW 98 MT
Solar Power CO2-eq. savings by
installed by 2022 2015 from energy
efficiency by 2020

51. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE - TBC
India’s National Action Plan for Climate Change
• PAT Scheme
• Carbon Tax on coal (about $1 per ton)
• Feed in Tariffs (FITs) for Solar and Wind

52. THEY WILL BE HURT
Weather: Typhoons and heat waves have
increased in frequency and intensity
Sea-Level Rise: projected increases would
inundate thousands of kilometers
Water: increase flooding and drought expected
associated with melting glaciers and permafrost
(Photo: Bert van Dijk/Flickr)

53. SHIFTING POLITICS - BASIC

54. SHIFTING POLITICS
“Any attempts to… recategorize
developed and developing countries
would delay progress…with
nothing to come at the end.”
– China submission to UNFCCC Process, March 2013

55. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
• Climate Change
• Resource Consumption
• Clean Energy Trade War
5. Politics Going Forward

56. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT

57. 50%
foreign direct
investment going to
extractive industries
$16bn
2011 Chinese
investments
in Africa
(Photo: ENOUGH Project/Flickr)

58. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT

59. COAL | U.S. COAL EXPORTS ARE RISING (2002 = 1.0)
3.5
3.0
2.5
Relative to 2002
2.0
1.5
EXPORTS
1.0
0.5
CONSUMPTION
0.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(EIA, 2012)

60. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
• Climate Change
• Resource Consumption
• Clean Energy Trade War
5. Politics Going Forward

61. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINA
The size of U.S.-China Trade
Imports from China
Imports from China
Total
Exports to China
Other
Exports to China Solar
0 100 200 300 400 500
Wind
Billions of US dollars
0 100 200 300 400 500
(Pew Research Center 2012)

62. CLEANTECHTRADE WITH CHINA
Areas of Dispute
U.S. tariffs on solar panels
and wind towers imported
from China
Chinese conducting an anti-
dumping and subsidy
investigation on imported
polysilicon from the US,
EU and S. Korea

63. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINA
Areas of Progress
Areas of Progress on Trade
(all is not bleak)

64. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINA
Going Forward
Competitiveness in clean tech depend significantly on factors outside
trade
• Creating markets for
low-carbon power
• Financing companies
• Creating new
knowledge
• Providing clear
regulation

65. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH INDIA
Hiccups Ahead?
US Challenging Local-Content Requirements in the National Solar Mission

66. AGENDA
1. WRI Overview
2. China and India’s Rising
Economic Power
3. Resource Snapshots
4. Deep Dives
5. Politics Going Forward

67. 18TH NATIONAL CONGRESS
OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY
OF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012
“We must fully implement the
overall plan for promoting
economic, political, cultural, soc
ial and ecological progress.”
- PRESIDENT HU
(Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr)

68. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE
“Faster, More Inclusive, and Sustainable Growth”
“No development process can afford
to neglect the environmental
consequences of economic activity, or
allow unsustainable depletion and
deterioration of natural resources”
- Indian Planning Commission’s 12th Five Year Plan

69. GEARING UP FOR NEXT
ELECTIONS IN 2014
What role for the environment?
(Photo: Al Jazeera English/Flickr)

70. IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIAN
ECONOMIC BOOMS ON THE
ENVIRONMENT
Manish Bapna
Executive Vice President, WRI
(Photo: Andreas/Flickr)

71. DRIVING GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
Share of the world total
50%
40%
30%
India
China
20%
10%
0%
GDP CO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)