Experts highlight findings of a new report showing that while progress on climate action has been made in key sectors like power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and agriculture, it's not nearly enough to achieve a safer, climate-resilient future.

1. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION
Assessing Progress Toward 2030 and 2050

2. AGENDA AND SPEAKERS
• Introduction Dan Plechaty, ClimateWorks Foundation
• Methodology Louise Jeffery, Climate Action Tracker
• Findings Katie Lebling and Kelly Levin, WRI
• Discussion Moderated by Rhys Gerholdt, WRI
Download the report: wri.org/state-of-climate
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3. Why did we write this report?
• Pivotal moment in lead up to
COP26 and 5th Anniversary of
Paris Agreement
• Need to understand how on/off
track we are for 1.5°C
temperature rise in key sectors
• Inform decision makers where and
how to step up climate action
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4. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS (1 OF 2)
• The world is already being ravaged by the impacts of a
changing climate.
• Commitments and action by countries, cities, and companies,
as well as levels of climate finance, still fall woefully short of the
ambition necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals.
• This coming year, leading up to COP26, is critical to commit to
transformative action to limit warming to 1.5°C. Countries will
update NDCs and submit LTSs, at the same time that trillions of
dollars will be mobilized for COVID-19 recovery.
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5. Solar and wind are now cheapest new power
source for two thirds of world population
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7. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS (2 OF 2)
• The report assesses progress toward 2030 and 2050 emissions-
reduction targets across six key sectors -- power, buildings, industry,
transport, forests and agriculture.
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8. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION
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Download the paper
wri.org/state-of-climate

9. WHERE ARE WE TODAY: EMISSIONS
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x
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10. NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION
Climate Watch (https://www.climatewatchdata.org/)
New and Updated NDCs Long-term Strategies
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11. SUBNATIONAL AND CORPORATE CLIMATE ACTION
UNFCCC 2020, Global Climate Action Portal (with historical data shared by
Secretariat staff); Hsu, A., Tan, J., Ng, Y.M. et al. 2020; Natural Capital
Partners 2019; World Economic Forum 2019
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2016 2018 2020
Cities and Regions Companies
Growth in the number of actors with commitments
Mixed signs of progress
• 60% of EU cities are on track
to achieve 2020 targets, but
renewed ambition is required
• Only 23% of Fortune 500
companies have made
ambitious commitments
• Of the 7000 companies that
regularly report climate
information, roughly 12%
show year-on-year emissions
decreases
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12. CLIMATE FINANCE
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13. ADAPTATION
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14. PARIS COMPATIBLE SECTORAL
BENCHMARKS -
METHODOLOGY

15. What do “Paris Agreement Compatible” sectoral benchmarks mean?
A level of an indicator that would be “sufficient” for national action to
decarbonise sectors in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚ C temperature limit.
We set our benchmarks at a level of “highest plausible ambition,” which means
they:
• are generally technically and economically feasible within the foreseeable
future
• take into consideration current circumstances in terms of
existing infrastructure in individual countries
• ensure that the benchmarks push boundaries on all levels and increase
our chances of collectively meeting the Paris temperature limit
The benchmarks are not explicitly based on equity, but do account for national
circumstances and convergence of living standards. Support from developed
countries will be needed to meet the benchmarks in all countries.

16. Which indicators are benchmarks available for?
Electricity emissions
intensity
EV sales share Cement emissions
intensity
Buildings emissions
intensity (residential)
Renewable share in
power generation
EV stock share Steel emissions intensity Buildings emissions
intensity
(commercial)
Coal power share in
total electricity
generation
Emissions intensity of
land-based passenger
transport
Share of electricity use in
Industry
Buildings energy
intensity (residential)
Zero emissions fuels
for domestic
transport
Buildings energy
intensity
(commercial)
Renovation rates

17. Which countries and years are benchmarks available for?

18. Our own sectoral models
How are the benchmarks determined?
Multiple lines of evidence are used as input and informed decisions taken on the
basis of the available data from literature and our own analysis.
Global least cost pathways
Sectoral technology scenarios
Recent trends and ambitious efforts
National studies claiming PA compatibility

19. What do the ranges represent?
Where the benchmark is a range, it reflects a combination of trade-offs between mitigation options and uncertainties in
feasibility.
• The least ambitious end of the range represents what we are confident can be achieved with known technologies and
strategies.
• The more ambitious end of the range may indicate:
– what’s possible if known strategies and technologies turn out to be successful.
– there is some flexibility in the benchmark, but it implies trade-offs with other activities.

20. FOREST AND AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY
• Forests
– Aligned with 1.5C temperature rise
– Synthesis of top down and bottom-up modeling
– Country targets based on land availability for tree cover gain
• Agriculture
– Aligned with 1.5C temperature rise
– Indicators 1-3 and 5 are based on analysis and modeling underlying
WRI’s World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
– Indicator 4 based on SDG 12.3
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21. OUR ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS NEEDED
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22. FORESTS
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23. DEFORESTATION
Notes: Permanent deforestation includes tree cover loss from commodity-driven deforestation,
urbanization, and shifting agriculture in primary tropical forests. Data include only tropical humid primary
forest; tropical dry primary forest is excluded, but its area is comparatively small. Deforestation is a subset
of tree cover loss, and tropical primary forest loss is a subset of deforestation.
Source: GFW (2020).
Wildfire
Global tree cover loss by driver, 2001-2019
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24. AGRICULTURE
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25. EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 2030 2050
MilliontonnesCO2e/year
-22%
-39%
Sources: Historical emissions from FAOSTAT (2020), adjusted upward as in Searchinger et al.
(2019) using a GWP value of 34 for methane and including a higher amount of energy use in
agriculture; GlobAgri-WRR model in Searchinger et al. (2019) for 2030 and 2050 targets.
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26. CROP YIELDS: REGIONAL VARIATION
Sources: Searchinger et al. (2019) for future targets; FAOSTAT (2020) for 2012-17 historical data.
Photo: Neil Palmer (CIAT).
On track for 2030/50 crop yield targets
• Asia, Northern America, China,
Former Soviet Union, Latin America,
MENA, EU, other OECD, World
Need 12x acceleration
• Sub-Saharan Africa, India
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27. RUMINANT MEAT CONSUMPTION
Sources: Searchinger et al. (2019) for future targets; FAOSTAT (2020) for 2012-17
historical data.27

28. POWER SECTOR

29. SHARE OF RENEWABLES GENERATION 2000–19
Note: Y axis ranges from 17 percent and 27 percent to clearly show acceleration of growth.
Source: Calculated based on IEA (2020g)

30. DECLINING PRICES
Sources: Lazard (2020); BNEF (2020b)

31. SHARE OF UNABATED COAL IN ELECTRICITY
GENERATION
Sources: CAT (2020a, 2020b); calculated based on IEA (2019a)

32. BUILDINGS
CAT 2020
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33. TRENDS AND REQUIRED DECLINE IN THE CARBON
INTENSITY OF BUILDINGS
Source: CAT 2020
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34. TRENDS AND REQUIRED DECLINE IN ENERGY
INTENSITY OF BUILDINGS
Source: CAT 2020
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35. INDUSTRY
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36. CARBON INTENSITY OF CEMENT PRODUCTION
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37. CARBON INTENSITY OF STEEL PRODUCTION
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38. TRANSPORT
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39. GLOBAL ELECTRIC CAR STOCK, 2010-2019
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40. TARGET SHARES OF ZERO CARBON FUELS IN TRANSPORTATION
CAT 2020
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41. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION
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Download the paper
wri.org/state-of-climate

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43. Climate Finance Readiness
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44. TRANSFORMATION CAN TAKE ON AN “S CURVE”
Adapted from ICAT 2020
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45. THE RACE IS ON
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46. QUESTION AND ANSWERS
Download the paper
wri.org/state-of-climate
Watch recording of this event
www.wri.org/events/2020/11/state-climate-action-
assessing-progress-toward-2030-2050
CAT methodology
climateactiontracker.org/publications/paris-agreement-
benchmarks/
Contact Us
Dan Plechaty dan.plechaty@climateworks.org
Louise Jeffery l.jeffery@newclimate.org
Katie Lebling klebling@wri.org
Kelly Levin klevin@wri.org
Rhys Gerholdt rgerholdt@wri.org
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