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2012.08.28
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Yuji Fujita
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statistical approach to technology innovation by way of science/patent map visualisation
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2012.08.28
1.
研究分野”知”図と可視化
藤田裕二 日本大学理工学部 (株)ターンストーンリサーチ
2.
Technology/Science Map •
科学/技術の最前線を視覚的に把握したい • 学際研究, 技術の融合のための手がかり • 具体的, 計量的な研究の出発点 ↓ イノベーションの構造と力学
3.
経済物理学の研究対象 • 資産市場に関係した研究
• 株価・為替・不動産価格のダイナミクス • マクロ経済に関係した研究 • 個人: 富や所得のサイズ分布とゆらぎ • 企業: サイズ, ゆらぎ, ネットワーク, ... • 景気変動 • 経営学に関係した研究 • ヒット現象, マーケティング,...
4.
イノベーションと経済物理 •
経済物理学 = 経済活動に物理学(統計的力学) の手法を適用 • イノベーションは個別の出来事であり, それ ぞれ独立した物語と因果の系列がある(ように 見える). • 投資家や企業も自分の事情と目標に則って行動 • イノベーションにも構造が見られるのでは?
5.
技術革新の構造
Space Shuttle = 有人宇宙プログラム + X-15 • HSF: Mercury, Gemini, Apollo • 多段ロケット, 液体ロケットエンジン, 軌道制御, 再突入 • X-15: マッハ6以上で高度100kmを飛ぶ実験機 • 熱, 極超音速と大気圏上層部での姿勢制御 ロケットエンジンで宇宙に出て, 超音速グライダー として帰還する乗り物 • 新たな知識/技術/ビジネス = 既存の知見の組み 合わせ
6.
リードタイムのリスク
• ディーゼルエンジン • 1897年 ルドルフ・ディーゼルが設計 • 1935年 チャールズ・ケタリングが実用化 • 無線通信 • 1864年 マクスウェルの方程式 • 1901年 マルコーニの大西洋横断無線通信 時間的ギャップを解決するには? 知識間の繋がり/隔たりの把握が第一歩
7.
知図化の対象 •
技術データ • 日本の特許データ • 知識データ • Google scholar 検索結果 • Web of Science from Reuters
8.
分析手法 •
既存の研究/技術分類を使う • 研究分野間距離は両分野の Jaccard Index d(A, B) = 1.0 - #(A and B)/ #(A or B) • 距離行列の固有ベクトル表現を使って, 高次元 空間を低次元ユークリッド空間(今回は平面)に 埋め込む: Torgerson's Multi-Dimentional Scaling
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