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Alleviating Jordan's 2050 Water Woes
- 1. Alleviating Jordan’s Water Woes in 2050
- 3. Scenarios/Interventions Reduce Agricultural Output Decrease Population Reduced fertility rate Decreased immigration
- 6. Combined Impact of All Interventions
- 7. Comparison with Sustainability First Scenario
- 8. Recommendations Reduce agricultural water use by reducing production Decreasing crop production Changing crop type Implement policies and programs to reduce the population size Resettlement of Refugees Family planning education Economic empowerment
- 10. References Central Intelligence Agency. (2011). “Government, Jordan,” CIA World Factbook. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/fields/2119.html. Hughes, B. & Hillebrand, E. (2006). Exploring and shaping international futures. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers. Jordan’s water shortage. (1998). Retrieved from http://www.kinghussein.gov.jo/geo_env4.html#Jordan’s Water Shortage. Saleem, M. (2011). Water: Our most precious, most wasted resource. Web Ecoist. Retrieved from http://webecoist.com/2008/12/13/water-precious-resource/. The US Agency for International Development. (2006). Jordan. Water resources management. Retrieved from http://jordan.usaid.gov/sectors.cfm?inSector=16.
Notes de l'éditeur
- Water has been called the world’s “most precious resource” (Saleem, 2011). It performs a critical role in our very existence. Yet, imagine living in a country where the shortage of water is a constant reality. Where there is less than the amount of water needed for bathing, cleaning and, of course, drinking. Jordan is just such a country. It is considered to be water-deprived as defined by the fact that, in 1998, the average Jordanian had only 198 cubic metres of fresh water available to them per year. To put this into context, the average US citizen has 9,000 cubic meters of water available to them annually.Temporary measures employed by the Jordanian government, such as removal of groundwater, have detrimental long-term effects. Therefore, the Jordanian government must act to remedy this situation. This report investigates Jordan’s fresh water predicament and offers suggestions for remedying this problem by 2050.
- The official name for Jordan is “The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan”. It is bordered by Israel, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Jordan possesses two water sources, the River Jordan that it shares with Israel and the Yarmouk River that it shares with Syria. Despite its proximity to these water sources, Jordan continues to experience water shortages as it does not control the allocation of water from either source. Instead, the Jordanian government must rely on its neighbors to grant the kingdom the water they need. Despite increases permitted by both Syria and Israel, Jordan continues to experience water shortages.
- Efforts by the Jordanian government to attract international assistance in resolving its water crisis have not proven successful. Thus the preferred option is that the government take action over matters in which it has direct control. As IFs did not demonstrate an increase in water resources, this study considered interventions that reduce water use. The drivers that impact water use are Agricultural Production and Population. Thus, I examined:Reducing agricultural output and2) Decreasing the population by Reducing the fertility rateDecreasing immigration
- Jordan’s agricultural industry consumes 75% of the country’s water but makes up only 3.4% of Jordan’s GDP (CIA World Factbook, 2011). By reducing the agricultural yield 50% every 5 years for 50 years, Jordan’s water use compared to the base case ranged from 10.9% lower in the initial year to 13.96% lower by 2050. This demonstrates the potential success of this intervention.
- The average Jordanian woman has 3.39 children compared to the recommended global rate of 2. Reducing Jordan’s Fertility Rate by 50% every 10 years for a 50-year period, resulted in a slight decrease in water use by 2050.Jordan also has a high immigration rate due to its liberal refugee policy that has attracted an influx of Palestinian and Iraqi refugees. Almost 2 million people living in Jordan are refugees. This has a pronounced impact on the country’s resources. Dramatically reducing the number of immigrants annually has a profound impact on Jordan’s water usage. Combined, reducing the fertility rate and immigration rate have a marked impact on Jordan’s water use.
- Jordan’s agricultural production working case decreases from 2006 until 2016. In 2020, production begins to increase again, a trend that continues throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Although the rate of production in the working case increases, the rate of increase is significantly lower than that of the base case from 2006 until 2050. The water use working case begins to decrease in 2006 then drops significantly in 2010. This trend of diminishing continues through 2020 and then in 2024 water use begins to increase again. This second trend continues through 2040 after which time the rate of water use begins to decrease again through the end of the forecast period.
- This diagram shows us that the results of the working case for water use and agricultural production are lower than those of the Sustainability First scenario. This demonstrates the success of the interventions within the context of shifting a paradigm and greater emphasis on social and environmental issues. Based on this outcome, the results of the intervention could be deemed to be beneficial to Jordan in the long run in successfully addressing the water crisis.
- Reducing agricultural water use could be achieved via two means:Gradually decreasing the amount of crops grown locally and import crops for consumption.Planting crops that require less water to grow. Policies & Programs:Resettlement of Refugees- this would require political cooperation from neighboring Arab countries to encourage the other leaders to embrace Jordan’s policy on accepting and assimilating Arab refugees. By demonstrating the success of their policy, the Jordanian government could assist other Arab nations to implement similar policies, thereby reducing the burden on Jordan of caring for the displaced people. Family Planning: Teach families the value and benefits of producing fewer children, particularly in rural areas where family sizes are larger.Economic Empowerment: Assist families to become financially self-sufficient through introducing new industries and trades. This recommendation must accompany family planning to avoid the undue financial hardship on families in later years currently experienced by Western societies.