Market Perspectives Reveal Profit Warning Signs

Market Perspectives
March 2015
Mar. 6th, 2015
www.finlightresearch.com
Profits recession is underway…

“profit margins are probably the most mean-
reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do
not mean-revert, then something has gone badly
wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract
competition, there is something wrong with the
system and it is not functioning properly.”
– Jeremy Grantham
2
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation
Deflation fears are fading and growth hopes are rising..
The broad uptrend in equity markets is still intact. But, between slowing growth,
weakening earnings prospects, coming rate hikes, falling oil, and the strength of
the dollar, we still believe equity markets are on borrowed time.
In our view, the equity bull market is mature and offers a poor risk-reward
We also believe that artificially low interest rates, set by Central Banks, lead to a
misallocation of capital, asset bubbles and, finally, to a big bust.
Good news is bad news again! February jobs growth was stronger than
expected and market took it as a bad news as it pushed odds of a Fed rate hike
higher...
The hunger for yield remains intense. BoJ and ECB QE should force JPY- and
EUR-based investors to seek yield in other currencies (USD among others).
The divergence theme continues to propel the dollar higher
Commodity prices continue to fall as the dollar strengthens.
Volatility in commodities and currencies is propagating to stocks. Our
regime switching model is pointing to a major shift in the S&P500 volatility
regime.
We remain underweight government bonds and corporate credit overall
(but with an intra-asset class preference for IG vs HY, and Eurozone vs US non-
financials), Overweight US dollar (supported by divergence Fed policy from
that of the ECB and BOJ) and UW commodities (specially on energy and
precious metals)
We summarize our views as follows
3

MACRO VIEW
The Good
February jobs growth was stronger than expected, confirming that labor market has
improved. Market took it as a bad news as it pushed odds of a Fed rate hike higher...
The fall in oil prices is boosting retail spending and manufacturing output. But the benefits to
consumption growth should be fully exhausted over few months.
Consumers are quite optimistic. Michigan sentiment stand at a strong level (95.4).
China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI have slightly rebounded in February
The Bad
Earnings forward expectations are showing lower guidance and slower growth. At 85%
on the S&500, Q1 negative earnings guidance is well above average. Forward earnings
estimates continue to decline.
Goldman Sachs Global Leading Index has slipped in contraction phase, since January.
Bad news for stocks, in our opinion.
GDP gains slowed to 2.2% in Q4-2014
Existing home sales disappointed. They stand at their lowest level since May, 2014
The Ugly
Main systemic risk resides in China : China’s economy is supported by approximately six
trillion dollars of 'shadow debt', which may eventually create major systemic issues.
We are building a boom-bust economy that is increasingly dependent on central bankers
inflating policies. The end game is clear even if the timing is anything but.
4

5
The Big Four Economic Indicators
The overall picture had been one of a slow recovery, but there is no indication of a recession using the
indicators monitored by the NBER.
The Big Four average shows some signs of exhaustion…

6
US Inflation
Inflation rate went negative (-0.09%
annualized) as a result of the pullback in oil
(and gasoline) prices
Even on a core basis (ex food and energy)
inflation is low and seems trending lower.

7
Consumer Sentiment
Consumers are quite optimistic.
Both the Michigan Sentiment Index and
the Conference Board's consumer
confidence are still near long-term highs

8
Chinese Economy
Chinese economic momentum is
decelerating. Industry seems to face
recessionary pressure.
China Manufacturing and Non-
Manufacturing PMI have slightly rebounded
in February
Manufacturing PMI recovers a little (from
48.9 to 49.9) but is still in contraction
mode.

9
GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI)
Since January, GLI has slipped
in ‘Contraction’ phase, defined by
negative and decreasing
momentum.
9 of the 10 underlying components
of the GLI worsened in February
We’ve been thinking for a while
that the current acceleration
remains quite modest for a
typical expansion phase.
Available data is more indicative of
a stable macro environment rather
than one with a growth pulse.
Our fears about the current
economic situation are
concretizing…

10
EQUITY
The bull trend on equities remains intact. We still believe that equity markets are living on
borrowed time. Market breadth does not suggest there is much strength beneath the surface. But
central bank interventions continue to work their magic to keep the bull market going.
Economic fundamentals are bullish in the US, but valuations are clearly bearish. By every
technical measure, the risk-return profile for equities appears less attractive and should imply some
cautious. With that said, we remain skeptical that this market will move much higher without a sharp
pullback.
Rationally, the upside on stocks is exhausted by a limited multiple expansion and margins
being at peak levels. But the current environment of unprecedented monetary stimulus across the
globe is making rationality irrational.
On the S&P500 earnings front, and according to FactSet data, analysts are now expecting a YoY
decline for both Q1 and Q2-2015. Revenues are also expected to decline in H1-2015, mostly due to
the energy sector. The consensus is still too optimistic in its earnings expectations for the H2-2015
Energy sector's earnings expectations continue to be revised to the downside (37% since the start of
2015) and the sector is expected to earn just half of what it did in 2014
Too little cash is left on the sidelines, as investors moved massively into equities and out of bonds
and cash. Excessive optimism makes the equity market more vulnerable, pushing the volatility to the
upside.

11
EQUITY
Strong US dollar and currency volatility are headwinds to earnings guidance, specially for multinational
companies. Volatility in commodities, currencies, and bonds is now filtering to stocks. Equity implied
volatility is clearly shifting to a higher regime.
We repeat our disagreement with those who continue to assert that lower oil prices are good for the US
economy and the stock market, as the benefits to consumers is supposed to outweigh the decline in the
energy sector (less than 10% of corporate earnings and market valuation). The sharp decline in oil
prices is simply killing the growth from a sector that have generated a double-digit growth over
the last years.
Investors are showing more and more concern about the future path of U.S. monetary policy. Strong
employment gains are clearly putting some pressure on the Fed to act soon. The coming rate hikes
(probably in Q2-2015) will depress all asset prices for at least part of next year, in our view
You can lough at us but we still believe that the current market cycle is simply a very very
strong cyclical bull within a secular bear market!

12
EQUITY
Bottom line :
Nothing new compared to our previous report. We remain Neutral equities. At this stage,
expansionary monetary policies, low interest rates and abundant liquidity are keeping us from
moving to an underweight on equities. Even bad news for the economy (in Europe, Japan and
China) appear as good news for stocks, as they allow for further stimulus.
We may revise our view to OW after a clean break of the 2075-2125 range on the S&P500, and to
UW below the trend from Nov. ‘12 lows
We think it is wise to incrementally "de-risk" your portfolios by focusing on higher quality / more
defensive / more favorably priced companies
While we remain long-term OW on Japan (always on an FX hedged basis) as we see further
upside for Japanese stocks from the improvement in corporate earnings momentum, we tactically
take part profit on unsupportive technicals and move Neutral on the short-term. A correctiion
should be expected shortly.
A number of factors are helping European growth: lower oil prices, weaker Euro, and fading credit
headwinds. We remain Neutral on Europe vs. US. We think that markets are too reliant on the
new ECB’s QE. If the ECB loses the market’s confidence, European stocks would underperform
severally.
We remain UW in US small caps vs large caps, and UW EM stocks vs US large caps

13
Earnings
While prices are still going up, forward earnings
expectations start moving down, pushing P/E
even higher…
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500
now stands at 17.1, well above historical
averages: 5-year (13.7), 10-year (14.1)
The 12-month EPS estimate is now at $122.88,
decreasing from $126.87 at Dec. 31st.
For Q1 2015, 82 companies have issued
negative EPS guidance and 15 companies have
issued positive EPS guidance
For Q1 2015 and Q2 2015, analysts predict YoY
earnings declines of 4.6% and 1.5%,
respectively

14
Earnings
Despite the negative outlook for
S&P500 earnings in H1-2015,
analysts continue to see Q3-2015
operating earnings at all-time highs
through a profit margin expansion
from current levels (10.1%, a multi-
decade high).
According to FactSet, the
expectation is that margins will rise
to 10.6% in Q4-2015.

15
S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective
The market moved higher into overvaluation territories…
We watch 4 long-term indicators : 2 P/E ratios and Q Ratio through their deviation to their arithmetic
means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite deviation to its exponential trend.
Based on the average of these indicators, the market looks 80% overvalued (the highest level outside the
Tech Bubble), suggesting a cautious long-term outlook

16
S&P500 – A Short-Term Perspective
The S&P 500 has been consolidating in
recent weeks, but the underlying
momentum is still intact, and will
remain so as far as the primary
uptrend from Oct. ‘11 lows (~1870) is
preserved
The level to watch over the ST is 2064
that combines the prior ceiling and the
50d MA.

17
Emerging Markets
The equity market picture in
EM has been complicated by
energy price volatility.
EM stocks have been trading
sideways for years now,
despite weaker currencies.
We see no positive
catalysts at this stage, and
believe growth dynamics to
remain poor.
Therefore, we prefer to
remain UW EM.
MSCI EM Equities in local cur.
EM FX vs. USD

18
Trading Model – S&P500
Our prop. Short-Term trading model went massively long on Jan. 6th at 2002.61 on the index. The
model increased its longs on Jan 28th (@2002.16), then on Jan 30th (@1994.99), reversed it position
on Feb 12 (@2088.48) and went massively short on Feb 20th (@2110.30)
As of Mar 6th, the model is becoming modestly long again.
The model targets 2083 and 2103 on the upside, but still expect a breach of the 2062-2041 area
to the downside.

19
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
The global central bank landscape remains highly supportive of fixed income markets.
the significant QE buying from the ECB and BoJ is happening in a market where yields are already
rock bottom and in a number of cases are negative. We thus do not expect that this QE will lead to
much lower yields in euros and yen and will instead force investors there to seek better yields
elsewhere, depressing their own currencies and yields in other markets.
We still look for the bear market on USTs to resume but patience seems to be needed
Despite the recent rebound, we believe that US yields are set to stay low both because low inflation
will transmit to the US via the strengthening dollar but also because yield hungry investors in Japan
and the Eurozone will simply buy USTs.
We’ve been Neutral UST since end of Nov. ’14, and decided to stay Neutral as far as the 10y yield
remains below 2.25.
The negative net issuance in the Euro area combined with the continuing duration withdrawal in Japan
provides a supportive backdrop for global fixed income markets
We remain neutral on German yields despite the ECB QE that we expect to keep German bond
yields at very low levels. But until fiscal solutions are seen, the potential for a reflation trade (similar to
the one we initiated in the US after Fed’s QE3) remains very limited, in our view.
The hunger for yield remains intense. BoJ and ECB QE should force JPY- and EUR-based investors
to seek yield in other currencies (USD among others).

20
The sharp rise in yields after the upside surprise in the US employment report shows that yield
markets are vulnerable to the timing of the first Fed hike.
We expect the Fed to start tightening in June and to hike rates more than is currently priced in: Thus,
the re-pricing of Fed expectations is likely to take place very soon in the short end of the curve.
While US yields in the short end are expected to go higher driven by Fed expectations, the medium to
long end of the curve will be supported by abundant liquidity and by spillover effects from ECB and
BoJ QE as investors struggle for yield. We continue to bet on a significant flattening of the US
yield curve.

21
Credit markets have performed strongly since the ECB announced an expanded asset purchase
program at the end of January. Since then, the search for yield resumed and we saw investors
moving down the quality spectrum, buying high yield bonds and growth sectors.
We remain UW on corporate credit, due to valuation, to rising corporate leverage (specially in the
US), to position within the credit cycle, to the expected rise in government bond yields and given the
weak total return forecast
Within the credit pocket, and over the very short-term, we continue to prefer Eurozone
corporates (specially IG and non-financials) to US corps, because of the ECB massive QE
In the medium-term (6 months), we expect the pattern of European outperformance to reverse.
We still prefer IG over HY on a risk-adjusted basis as we expect higher volatility on spreads
Bottom line : Neutral Govies, Neutral Eurozone vs. US Govies, Long flatteners on the US yield curve,
UW credit, OW Eurozone vs US credit (specially IG and non-financials), Neutral TIPS and OW HICP
Inflation, UW High Yield vs High Grade, Neutral on EM corporates

22
European Bonds
Flows are extremely supportive.
With the ECB’s QE announcement,
monthly inflows into European fixed
income reached record highs
In both IG and HY, reported mutual
fund inflows are at a multi-year highs
This appetite for European bonds is
pushing sovereign yields to levels
never seen before.
5 year bonds are now negative in 10
countries (Sweden, Belgium…)

23
10-year USTs
In our previous report, we said :
“Market rejection of the 1.77
resistance would increase the
likelihood for a base pattern
formation. In that case, a
bounce to 1.9-2.0 becomes
possible.”
The rebound did occur slightly
below 1.70, and went through
the 2.0 target
After a consolidation period
(around 2.10), 10-year yields
have jumped up on last macro
news. The next level to watch
now is 2.25
We’ve been Neutral UST since
end of Nov. ’14, and decided to
stay Neutral as far as the 10y
yield remains below 2.25.
.

24
Credit – Investment Grade
After declining for most of H2-2014, the investment
grade fund beta has sharply rebounded on ECB
announcement of its sovereign QE on Jan. 22nd.
Does that mean that fund managers are
accumulating risk again ?
The answer should be Yes if we trust the spread
differential between single-Bs and BBs which has
declined significantly from the recent wides.

25
EXCHANGE RATES
Policy divergence between the US on one hand, and Japan and the Eurozone on the other, should
continue to provide an environment supportive of the dollar.
Currency war is raging… Signs of global economic weakness and deflation persist in Europe, Japan
and even China, pushing these countries to debase their currencies in order to fight off deflation and grow
their exports. But currency debasement is exporting deflation to the U.S. by strengthening the
dollar
We see further medium term USD gains against the major crosses, especially EUR and JPY
EUR-USD underlying structure still looks very heavy. Our ST target of 1.12-1.10 has already been
reached. We remain UW EUR-USD as long as the pivot stays below 1.16 and move Neutral above to
play the correction towards 1.25-1.30. Our next target is 1.02-1.00.
We remain OW USD-JPY as far as the pivot stays above 116 (lower bound of the consolidation triangle).
Our ultimate target remains at 124-125 over the medium-term
The best hope for a broad USD breakout rests on consistent inflation surprises in the US

26
US Dollar – A Long-Term Perspective
Dollar moves tend to be persistent,
with rallies typically running for 5-6
years and 40% gain versus G10
currencies.
We see further USD upside over the
medium/long-term, with around
10%+ additional gains versus G10

27
US Dollar Index
Relatively to the expected rate hike in
June, the current dollar appreciation
appears to match the pace of 1994
and 1999 cycles.

28
US Dollar Index - DXY
We continue to expect the USD
to strengthen against the major
crosses
The spot is now very close to our
target of 96.00. Its break above
95.86 (50% of the Jul. ’01 to Mar.
‘08 decline) confirms the strength
of the upward trend.
Our ultimate target remains at 102
over the medium-term.

29
EUR-USD
Things are going very fast. Our ST
target of 1.12-1.10 has already been
reached.
Now that the 1.10 support is
breaking, we expect the momentum
to accelerate down.
Next main levels to be watched are
1.0737 and 1.0245 (our ultimate
target, at this stage)
Our medium-term view remains
biased towards a strengthening of
USD
We remain UW EUR-USD as long
as the pivot stays below 1.16 and
move Neutral above to play the
correction towards 1.25-1.30

30
USD-JPY
Breaking the 120.75 resistance is
the sign to watch for a confirmation
of the uptrend
Our ultimate medium-term target
remains at ~ 124-125. We will take
a more neutral stance as soon as it
is reached.
We remain OW USD-JPY as far as
the pivot stays above 116 (lower
bound of the consolidation triangle)
and below the 124-125 area.

31
COMMODITY
Over the short-term, the trend remains bearish. We still watch for a bottom formation.
USD strengthening remains a big headwind to commodities
We remain UW commodities. We continue, however, to like owning the GSCI index, and think
that commodities hold value as cross-asset portfolio diversifiers.
Bottom Line :
Many factors are weighing on base metals: US Dollar strengthening, the Chinese slowdown,
weaknesses in construction / housing sectors in major economies (mainly affecting Copper and
Nickel) We remain Neutral on base metals (but we prefer Aluminium, Zinc and Nickel to Copper)
We remain UW on agriculture (except on Cocoa and Coffee) because of excess supply and
substantial stocks (built since the 2012 drought). Absent a severe weather shock, it is unlikely that
agriculture prices will spike this year. We rather anticipate they will revert to 2009 levels. Within the
Agri complex, we’ve been OW Cocoa and Coffee for a while now. We like Cocoa for its long-term
underlying demand driven by consumption in Asia. Pullback in coffee prices provide a better entry
opportunity into this market after the sharp surge we’ve seen in prices because of the drought in
Brazil.

32
COMMODITY
It is too early to expect major upside for the price of oil as the US is sinking deeper in a glut of
excess oil. Supply is at all-time highs. Without a supply cutback, there is no reason for the current oil
price to go higher.
No indication of a bottom formation yet as:
Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) stands at crisis levels
Energy sector's earnings expectations continue to be revised to the downside (37% since the
start of 2015)
We remain UW oil and target ‘08 lows (around $35) as long as the OPEC doesn’t decide to stop
the bleeding and the excess supply remains. We will move to Neutral if WTI breaks above $52/barrel
The stimulus provided by the ECB & BoJ is already factored in gold prices. Precious metals are
vulnerable to higher US real yields and stronger dollar
Our strategy on gold remains unchanged: We remain UW above 1150-1170 band. We will move
Neutral below 1150 and switch progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot slides down
towards 1000-980, which is likely the final leg down.
Our first target on silver stands at 14.70. We still think that Silver (like gold) is probably ready for its
final leg down towards 12.50. At current levels, we are UW. we will switch progressively to OW
(accumulate) as the spot breaks the first material resistance around 14.70 and slides down towards
12.50

33
Crude Oil
The number of U.S. oil rigs out drilling new wells fell for the 13th straight week as the U.S.
Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count is falling at a speed last seen during the credit crisis.
Excluding gas rigs, the number of rigs dropped to 922, down 43% since October.
But there is no cutback in supply yet, and thus no reason for the price of oil to rise right
now

34
Crude Oil
At this stage, producers are pumping 1.5 Mln barrels
a day more than the word needs.
Excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, crude oil
stocks rose by another 10.3 million barrels to 444
million barrels as of Mar. 4th, the highest since 1982.
If growth in supplies continues on the current
trend, Cushing Oklahoma could run out of
storage in a just a couple of months
Where are we going to put all this oil?
Probably, in oil tankers again…

35
Gold
Gold has broken sharply below
the Nov. ‘14 uptrend (1,189).
It seems now ready for a to make
a new low, below 1,132.
We change nothing to our
previous strategy: We will move
Neutral below 1150 and switch
progressively to OW (accumulate)
as the spot slides down towards
1000-980, which is likely the
final leg down.

36
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Hedge funds ended February on a good note (+1.85% on the HFRI Composite). Best performers were
Event-Driven (+2.98%, mainly due to Activist and Special Situations strategies)) and Equity Hedge
(+2.79%).
The “normalization trade” has gathered momentum, since end of January, bringing major moves
within the hedge fund universe. Previous winners (long-term CTAs, L/S Equity funds) underperformed,
while most previous losers (Event-Driven, Convertible Arbitrage) made money.
During February, Event-Driven funds benefited from a return of risk appetite in the market and positive
development on a series of deals.
CTAs suffered from trend reversal in oil prices and US treasuries, but they still managed to end the month
flat.
We continue to see inflows in HFs as investors position for volatility.
We reiterate our preference for risk diversifiers (pure alpha generation strategies) over return enhancers.
We maintain our previous positioning and remain OW on:
Equity Market Neutrals both for their “intelligent” beta and their alpha contribution. On several
occasions in 2014, our preference for variable bias and market neutral managers has proven to pay
off (compared to long bias) on the back of adequate short positioning.
CTA’s and Global Macro as a diversifier and tail hedge.
Vol. Arb strategy and prefer funds that trade volatility globally (all assets / all regions). This strategy
has shown a great ability in terms of protecting capital during adverse periods, and a volatility that
compares favorably with the hedge fund industry

37
CTAs
CTAs have lately increase their
equity exposure. That proved
especially rewarding.
Most of the losses were generated on
commodities (specially the short
positions on oil and Agri. prices) and
fixed income (long treasuries)
The overall long dollar exposure held
by CTAs was unable to compensate
for the losses as the US dollar
stopped its upward trend at the end of
February.
In CTAs space, long-term models kept
their old exposure and posted losses
on shorter term trend reversals
(commos, treasury yields…)
February was a strong month for short
term CTAs. Short term models
benefited from a higher volatility
regime by adjusting quickly to the
rebound

Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation
Deflation fears are fading and growth hopes are rising..
The broad uptrend in equity markets is still intact. But, between slowing growth,
weakening earnings prospects, coming rate hikes, falling oil, and the strength of
the dollar, we still believe equity markets are on borrowed time.
In our view, the equity bull market is mature and offers a poor risk-reward
We also believe that artificially low interest rates, set by Central Banks, lead to a
misallocation of capital, asset bubbles and, finally, to a big bust.
Good news is bad news again! February jobs growth was stronger than
expected and market took it as a bad news as it pushed odds of a Fed rate hike
higher...
The hunger for yield remains intense. BoJ and ECB QE should force JPY- and
EUR-based investors to seek yield in other currencies (USD among others).
The divergence theme continues to propel the dollar higher
Commodity prices continue to fall as the dollar strengthens.
Volatility in commodities and currencies is propagating to stocks. Our
regime switching model is pointing to a major shift in the S&P500 volatility
regime.
We remain underweight government bonds and corporate credit overall
(but with an intra-asset class preference for IG vs HY, and Eurozone vs US non-
financials), Overweight US dollar (supported by divergence Fed policy from
that of the ECB and BOJ) and UW commodities (specially on energy and
precious metals)
We summarize our views as follows
38

39
Disclaimer
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an
offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any
securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services
by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation,
purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such
jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be
construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter.
FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions
taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

About Us…
FinLight Research is a research-centric company focused on Asset Allocation from a top-down
perspective, on Portfolio Construction, and all related quantitative aspects and risk management issues.
Our expertise expands along 3 axes:
Asset Allocation with risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques
Allocation to alternative investments : Hedge funds, rule-based strategies (momentum, value,
carry, volatility), real assets (real estate, infrastructure, farmland, timberland and natural resources).
Private equity and venture capital should be the next step…
Allocation with a factorial approach built on the understanding (profiling) of the risk/return drivers of
the different asset classes
FinLight Research is an innovation-oriented company. We target to fill the gap between the
academic research and the investment community, especially on real assets and alternatives. We survey
on a continuous basis the academic literature for interesting published and working papers related to
quantitative investing, non-linear profiling, asset allocation, real assets...
40

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