Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port.
Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics and Researcher
adiazbau@gmail.com
KAHULUGAN AT KAHALAGAHAN NG GAWAING PANSIBIKO.pptx
Professor Alejandro Diaz-Bautista Port Economics Presentation
1. Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at the Department of Economics at Colef. Ph.D. Economic Consultant. Visiting Research Fellow and Guest Scholar 2008, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California San Diego (UCSD). January 30, 2008 . [email_address]
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8. The economic role that the port of Manzanillo plays is significant. Manzanillo is the principle gateway for the Center and Bajio zones of Mexico. This area is integrated by 16 states that represent more than 60 percent of the integral gross production and 47 percent of the national population, for the foreign exchange by maritime traffic. The geographic position both internationally as well as nationally counts with an extensive influential zone in Mexico.
35. NewPort Manzanillo Econometric Model for Forecasting Cargo Traffic CROSS BORDER CROSS BORDER NATIONAL HINTERLAND COLIMA ECONOMY TRANSHIPMENT IMPORT EXPORT PORT RELATED INDUSTRIES
38. China is expanding its markets, and the U.S. becomes less important, Latin America also expands Source: GIWTM
39. Latin America could absorb 10% of China’s container exports by 2010 Source: GIWTM
40. Latin Americas containers to the U.S. in 2006 were close to 3 million TEUs 2007 3.2 million TEUs 2015 4.2 million TEUs Almost 4% average annual growth Exports from Latin America to the Far East (China) will grow by 6.0%/year and hit 1.4 million TEUs in 2015. Far East
41. Latin America imported 1.5 million TEUs from the U.S. in 2006. 2007 1.5 million TEUs 2015 2.0 million TEUs 3% average annual growth Imports from the Far East (China) will grow by 7.1%/year and hit 2 million TEUs in 2015. Far East
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47. Mexico’s Multimodal Systems and Port Infrastructure in 2012 FUENTE: Programa Nacional de Infraestructura, Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes
48.
49.
50. Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway Colima has a total of 1,225 miles (1,971.5 kilometers) of highways. Colima’s highways connect with the NAFTA route, beginning in Manzanillo, passing through the cities of Tecomán and Colima and continuing on to Jalisco state where it joins the Guadalajara-Mexico highway to the U.S. and Canada.
51.
52.
53.
54. Alternative to NAFTA Superhighway, the Expansion of Panama Canal A secondary southern route for Asian containers traveling through the Panama Canal and linking up with Canadian National routes in Louisiana, or heading north into the Atlantic to connect with Canadian National in Halifax. The development of the port in Prince Rupert, B.C., as an official "Asian Gateway“ is another alternative to NAFTA super highway.
55.
56.
57.
58. Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at the Department of Economics at Colef. Ph.D. Economic Consultant. Visiting Research Fellow and Guest Scholar 2008, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California San Diego (UCSD). January 30, 2008 . [email_address]
59.
Notes de l'éditeur
One of the hardest decisions the port engineer has to make is the depth of the berth. Getting the balance between minimising capital expenditure and future proofing can be difficult. Most hub ports are building terminals with a depth of 18m and a few such a Tanjung Pelepas have designed for 19m
A straight quay provides flexibility and better crane utilisation A1200m quay provides quay provides for one Panamax, one post-Panamax and on ULCS. With a mix of smaller vessels and feeders it could be considered a 4 berth terminal but better to consider it as a single quay
A short term forecast can be developed by building on good national and local statistical information. The forecast of imports and exports will be based on the port’s potential market share of serving the immediate hinterland and the country as a whole. Industries adjacent to the port should be a captive market whereas landlocked neighbouring countries may have a choice To understand the transhipment potential you have to understand the regional trade and the shipping lines’ operations Longterm forecasts are more difficult and need to consider global trends. The globalisation of trade and the efficiency of containerisation has resulted in a year on year growth of 8% in container traffic. The longterm predictions will always be susceptible to variation due to external factors such a wars, political upheavals and global or regional depressions