13. Na/onal Level Deforesta/on over
/me, baseline
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo woodland
40 M
37.5 M
35 M
32.5 M
30 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline
14. Na/onal Model
Deforestation by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
15. Na/onal Model
Miombo Clearing by Driver
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
17. Lusaka Baseline
1.23% loss rate
in 2010
0.93% loss rate
in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
18. Lusaka Province
Deforestation by Driver
30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
19. Lusaka Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of
agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in
years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought
21. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification
22. Effects of Maize Yield increase
on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their
current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield
23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves
24. Eastern Baseline
0.74% loss rate
in 2010
0.54% loss rate
in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
25. Eastern Province
Deforestation by Driver
20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
26. Eastern Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
27. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of
agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in
years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_drought
28. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification
29. Effects of Maize Yield increase
on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their
current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_yield
30. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves