The CEO of the Agricultural Business Chamber, Dr John Purchase presented at COP 17 NBI Side Event. Theme: Agri-Food Chain - Vulnerability and Adaption.

1. Agri-Food Chain:
Vulnerability and Adaptation
COP17: NBI Side Event
John Purchase
1 December 2011

2. Acknowledgement
• Global warming - empirical evidence
• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence
of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g.
droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.
• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and
agricultural water management uncertain.
• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food
System: Biggest future shock?

4. Acknowledgement
• Global warming - empirical evidence
• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence
of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g.
droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.
• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and
agricultural water management uncertain.
• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food
System: Biggest future shock?

5. Three Key Publications

7. N9-911-403
DECEMBER 15, 2010
RAY A. GOLDBERG
DJORDJIJA PETKOSKI
MATTHEW PREBLE
LAURA WINIG
Climate Management:
The Biggest Future Shock
to the Global Food System

8. How vulnerable are we?
• SA generally deemed nationally food secure,
but with a significant level of food insecurity at
household level.
• Many definitions of food security, but the one
we will use is the FAO definition:
“A situation that exists when all people, at all times,
have physical and economic access to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life”.

9. Components of Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS
• Nutritional Value • Affordability
• Social value • Allocation
• Food safety • Preference
Food Security
FOOD AVAILABILITY
Complex concept:
• Production
Difficult to measure
• Distribution
and evaluate.
• Exchange/trade
Purchasing power key to access
Stability over TIME

10. Severity: Integrated Food
Security Phase Classification

11. Anticipated Impact of CC
• Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food
Availability), this in turn impacts Food Access &
Food Utilisation:
- Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc.
- Disease interactions
- High temperature stress
- Cold requirement of temperate crops not met
• Need to ascertain:
1. How high is our exposure to CC?
2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC?
3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

12. Main agricultural water systems that CC
is expected to impact (CGIAR, 2011)

13. Anticipated Impact of CC
• Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food
Availability), in turn impacts Food Access &
Food Utilisation:
- Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc.
- Disease interactions
- High temperature stress
- Cold requirement of temperate crops not met
• Need to ascertain:
1. How high is our exposure to CC?
2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC?
3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

14. Diagram of Food System Vulnerability
(GECAFS, 2005)

15. Areas with >16% cropping
Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011
• In SA, Western Cape and Highveld (Maize Δ) an exposure
concern
• Changing patterns of production in specific regions

16. Rainfall CV
Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011

17. Our Challenge
How do we produce more with less,
and produce fewer greenhouse gasses?
Need to still ensure food security, and value
chains need to be competitive in the global
food system.
Need holistic and integrated models across all
production systems. Focus also on developing
/subsistence agriculture.
Innovation and technology critical.

18. Innovation to address
Climate Change
• Innovative Water Management (drip irrig.)
• Crop protection & Animal health/nutrition
• Fertilizers (e.g. crop rotation with legumes)
• Carbon Sequestration
• Soil Conservation
• Adjustments in Farm Practices
• Adopting Good Agricultural Practices and
New Technologies (Conservation Agric.)
• Insurance Mechanisms

19. Policy Measures
• Doubt whether COP17 will provide Global Deal on
Climate Change, but some progress possible.
• Emission reduction for SA agriculture not clear, but
SA’s Copenhagen Pledge comprises 34% deviation
from business as usual by 2020, and 43% deviation
from business as usual by 2025.
• Private sector concern: Being placed in a non-
competitive situation due to the absence of a global
accord. Carbon tax a further concern.
• IPAP and New Growth Path – lower C growth path.
• Agriculture will require both mitigation and
• adaptation policies and strategies

20. Adaptation: Approach of value chains
• Issue of adaptation is critical to food value chains
as impacts will not only affect business
operations, but also the markets in which they
operate.
• Need to enhance information regarding the
opportunities and cost-effectiveness of adaptation
measures, so that action can be taken based on a
solid knowledge base. Good science thus
important.

21. Adaptation: Approach of value chains
• Implications of climate change will vary, creating
both business opportunities and challenges, as well
as winners and losers.
• Investment in adaptation can be both “soft” (e.g.
stakeholder participation, etc.) and “hard” (e.g.
physical installations, etc.).
• How much adaptation might cost, and how large its
benefits might be, are issues that are increasingly
relevant both for governments and business.

22. Adaptation:
Issues for Consideration
• Education on the “state of knowledge” is needed.
• Adaptation efforts need to rest on a sound
economic basis.
• Analysis on the costs and benefits of adaptation in
key sectors remains important.
• Business has the potential to deliver concrete
solutions, but government will need to engage
constructively with business.

23. Adaptation:
Issues for Consideration
• Incentives for adaptation.
• Consider the role of public-private partnerships
(PPP’s).
• Consider the role of the insurance industry.
• Financing aspects will be of key importance.
• In view of the cross-border implications,
international/regional cooperation will be
essential.

24. Mitigation: Sector emission trends
and % changes since 1990
Source: DEAT NIR, May 2009
• Globally, agriculture contributes ~14% of annual GGE,
plus 4-8% in land use changes
• N2O & CH4 : By far biggest problem (N fertilisation &
Enteric fermentation)
• Major sink for CO2, esp. forestation and soil carbon.

25. Way forward
• Agro-food Industry committed to addressing adaptation
and mitigation of CC in a holistic approach,
BUT uniqueness of industry needs to be recognized.
• Require balance between incentive and punitive
approach to emission reduction. Carbon Tax threat?
• Agribusiness recommends :
- Support long-term innovation in clean technologies.
- Utilise major potential of energy efficiency
- Open trade remains important
- Need to consider mitigation and adaptation of
individual value chains – proper analysis NB.
- Adopt environmentally sustainable land and
resource practices
- Important role of market-based approaches.

26. For deliberation……
Given the potential cost burden of
mitigation and adaptation policies, it is
essential to keep an economic focus in
mind when seeking for environmental
improvements.
If we do, it will go a long way to
ensuring food security.
If not,…………….

27. THANK YOU
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