V Agrawal A Sarmad Stoc Expo Presentation Updated2

Simulation Modeling of a Crude Oil or Refined Products Export Facility
Abbas Sarmad, P.E.
Principal Marine Engineer – Vice President
AECOM Transportation

Vijay Agrawal
1
Senior Port Analyst & Planner
AECOM Transportation

Author’s Perspective

• Consulting Civil Engineers / Planners /
Programmers
• Trained in Design, Fabrication and Construction
of waterfront and Offshore Structures
• Reliance on Self Engineering Expertise and Client
Taught Terminal Operation
• Use of Simulation Modeling as a “Tool” to
Achieve Optimized Solutions for two decades

2
STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009

AECOM Clients

Port Authorities
•
Shipping Lines
•
Terminal Operators
•
Industry Consortia
•
Private Developers
•
Government Agencies
•
Multilateral Agencies
•

3

AECOM Experience

PROJECT TYPE How Many?
Port Studies 400+
Container Terminals 100+
Major Multipurpose Ports and Harbors 100+
Marine Tanker Terminals 350+
Bulk Cargo Terminals 50+
Piers and Wharves 400+
Coastal Engineering Projects 250+
Offshore Platforms 300+
Storage and Tank Farm Facilities 50+
Cryogenic Cargo Terminals 25+
Shipyard Facilities 400+
Floating and Graving Docks 75+
Major River Ports 25+
River and Flood Control Programs 300+
Naval Bases and Stations 50+

4

Presentation Overview

Simulation Modeling
•
Crude Oil/Refined Product Export Terminal
•
Storage Fluctuation and Berth Occupancy
•
Cost of Change
•

5

Simulation Modeling

Simulation Modeling

What is Simulation

• Simulation is the art of creating
mathematical representation of
physical and logical “occurrences” in
realistic time domains
• Computer simulation is the art of
making a computer generated
representation look like the real
world
• For us, simulation is the art of
creating a real time moving
operating marine terminal
7

Spreadsheets vs. Simulation

• Spreadsheets
Quick, simple, flexible
–
Limited randomness and sophistication
–
Unwieldy at large scale
–
Limited to known relationships & formulas
–
• Simulation
Continuous or Discrete Event
–
Thorough treatment of randomness
–
Excellent for comparing alternatives
–
Animation of operations
–
Challenging to program
–

8

Why Simulate ?

• Measure Implications of Change
– Increased/decreased throughput
– Changes in port or terminal facilities
– Changes in capacity of hinterland connections
• Consider Alternative Scenarios
– Identify bottlenecks
– Evaluate storage capacity
– Cost analysis

9

Key Physical and Logistics Inputs

• Vessel Fleet Composition, Parcel Size
Distribution, Arrival Patterns, etc.
• Terminal Products, Storage Capacity,
Infrastructure, etc.
• Transportation Vessels, Barges, Trucks and Trains,
Pipelines, etc.
• Cost Parameters Infrastructure, Operations and
Maintenance

10

Model Output

Behavior of key parameters in time as they
vary discretely or continuously
– Vessel waiting time and resulting demurrage
– Storage fluctuation for different products
– Berth occupancy factors
– Equipment utilization factors

11


Production coming in from Upstream

Tankfarm Storage

Supply to Export Facilities

12

Change is Expensive

0.5 to 1 Million Barrels Capacity Tank $14 - 25 Million each

New Conventional Wharf – Medium Size $70 Million each
New SPM More than
$25 Million each
New pump, 10,000 to 15,000 MT/hour $12-20 Millions each
More pipelines, Large Diameter Crude More than
Submarine $7,000/meter

13

Find Out “What Goes - to What Tank - to Go Where”

14

Tankers Don’t Arrive on Time

Tanker 1
NEW2

Tanker 2
NEW1

Tanker 3
Oceania

Tanker 4
Ampac

Tanker 5
XLT

M Tu W Th F Sa Su

Blue regions: Most likely time vessel is at berth
Non Blue region: Small probability, but still possible
times when a vessel is at berth
15

Tanker Size Determines the Parcel Size

16

Tanker Loading Takes Time
Berth Suspension Takes Away Time

• Tanker arrival and tie up
• Hose connection
• Custom Clearance &
Quarantine
• Start-up time
• Pump Loading
• Top-off time
• Disconnects
• Tanker leaves the area

17

Simulation Model Scenario 1

Product 1

Facility
Tank Farm 2 Tank Farm 3
Tank Farm 1

Refineries
Refinery 1
Refinery 2
Refinery 3
Refinery 4

Berth 1 Berth 2

Product 1
Product 1 Alternate Flow
SPM SPM
1 2

18


Product 2 Product 1

Facility
Tank Farm 1

Refineries
Refinery 1
Refinery 2
Refinery 3
Refinery 4

Berth 1
Berth 2
,3

Product 1
Product 2
Being
Product 1 Alternate Flow
Overhauled
SPM SPM SPM SPM
2 3
1 4

19


Product 3 Product 2 Product 1 Product 4 Product 5

Facility Tank Farm 2

Refineries
Refinery 1
Refinery 2
Berth 2
Refinery 3
Refinery 4

Berth 1

,3

Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product 4 SPM SPM
SPM SPM
Product 5 1 3
2 4

20


Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 Product 1 Product 5

Refineries
TANK FARM 1 TANK FARM 2
Refinery 1
Refinery 2
Refinery 3
Refinery 4

Refineries
Refinery 5
Refinery 6

Facility

Berth 1
Berth 2

Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product 4
Product 5

SPM SPM SPM SPM
SPM
5 1 2 3 4

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Simulation Model Animation

Tank Farms

SPM or Berth Selection
Crude type, LRII vs. VLCCs
% of VLCCs going to Piers
% of VLCCs going to Piers that are partially loaded
Select tank farm with highest inventory
Select SPM with highest pump speed
Non-Availability of Berth due to
Bad weather or maintenance
Occupancy by other tankers

22

Simulation Results

Storage Fluctuation and Berth Occupancy

Dynamic Tracking of Tank Farm Inventory

Storage/Production :13
Storage/Export :15

Storage/Production : 7
Storage/Export :-

Storage/Production :15
Storage/Export :15

Storage/Production : 7
Storage/Export :11

24

Total vs. Simulated Storage Requirement

25

Buffer Ullage Available vs. Required

100%
1,200
90%
89%
1,000 80%
79%
70%
800 67%
F req u en cy

60%
54%
600 50%
40%
400 30%
20%
200
10%
0 0%
> 3-day buffer 3-day buffer 2-day buffer 1-day buffer
Simulated Cap
ullage ullage ullage ullage
Bin
Frequency Cumulative %

26

Berth Occupancy vs. Vessel Waiting Times

Berth Occupancy (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
SPM 1 58 27 31
SPM 2 59 35 34 35
SPM 3 24 27 31
SPM 4 24 24 31
SPM 5 61
Berth 1 41 36 16 39
Berth 2 33 27 31 <1%
Berth 3 5 17 7

Average wait time (days) 0.57 0.12 0.26 0.57
Average berth time (days) 1.49 1.17 1.02 1.05
Avg wait time / Avg berth time 0.37 0.11 0.25 0.51
Number of Tankers per year 467 475 633 814

27

Annual Demurrage Cost vs. SPM Cost

Number of Tankers Cumulative Frequency %
2,000 100%
1,800 90%
1,600 80%
Number of Tankers Waiting

Cumulative Frequency (%)
1,400 70%
Carriage
1,200 60%
Insurance Freight
1,000 50%
(CIF) Tankers
800 40%
Free On Board
600 30%
(FOB) Tankers
400 20%
200 10%
0 0%

more
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
Tanker W aiting Time (Days)

28

Capital Cost per
Barrel of Additional Daily Production

$2,000
Substations
Demurrage
Barrel of Additional Daily Production

SPMs
$1,600
Pumps+Metering
US $ Capital Cost Per

Pipelines
Tankage
$1,200

$800

$400

$0
100% 106% 106% 117% 133% 133% 133% 167%
% Increase in Daily Production
29

Application of Simulation Software for
Crude Export/Refined Product Terminal

• Evaluate the capacity of the existing system and
bottlenecks
• Determine the optimal storage, pipelines, and terminal
facilities required to accommodate additional production
capacity
• Initiate required capital projects ahead of demand
• Evaluate impact of crude segregation alternatives on
future facility requirements
• Establish the need for waterside export facilities
expansion regarding tanker service level and demurrage
cost

30

V Agrawal A Sarmad Stoc Expo Presentation Updated2

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