Intelligence Cycle

INTELLIGENCE
CYCLE
Is the process through
which intelligence is
obtained, produced, and
made available to users.
Direction
Collection
Production
& Analysis
Dissemination

Intelligence Cycle SummaryIntelligence Cycle Summary
Cycle feeds back upon itselfCycle feeds back upon itself
Ensures that assessments continue
to be refined
Intelligence stays up-to-date
Responds to the need of the commander

Intelligence is a subset of Information
Information CAN be intelligence, but,
intelligence CANNOT be information.
Intelligence has a specific purpose
and use
Provide confidential advice to
decision making

Intelligence is defined as the
product resulting from the
collection, evaluation, analysis,
integration, and the interpretation
of all available information.
Intelligence is processed
information.

OR:
Processed accurate
information, presented in
sufficient time to enable a
decision maker to take whatever
action is required.

Strategic Intelligence
Operational Intelligence
Tactical Intelligence

is an intelligence product that
provides insight or understanding,
contributing to decisions on broad
strategies, policies and resources,
directed to achieving long term
organizational objectives

is an intelligence product
which supports national and
regional managers of line areas in
planning activity and deploying
resources to achieve operational
objectives

is an intelligence product
which supports line areas and other
operational areas in taking case-
specific action to achieve
compliance or enforcement
objectives

Identifies the problem that the intelligence process
is going to examine.
Several questions to be asked:
 WHY AM I WORKING TOWARDS THIS INTELLIGENCE
PRODUCT?
 WHO IS THE CONSUMER OF MY INTELLIGENCE
PRODUCT?
 WHAT IS THE TASK THAT THE CLIENT WANTS ME TO
ADDRESS?
 WHAT INTELLIGENCE METHODS SHOULD I USE TO
ADDRESS THE TASK?
 WHAT RESOURCES WILL I REQUIRE TO ADDRESS
THE TASK?
 WHERE WILL THOSE RESOURCES COME FROM?
 HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO ACHIEVE THE TASK?

Four (4) main categories:
1.Human
2.Field
3.Electronic
4.Scientific

Types of Information
General Information
General Information or
background information
provides information about
the environment surrounding
the information requirement. It
is general in nature and
discusses the context in
which the information
requirement exists.
Specific Information
Specific Information directly
addresses the information
requirements. This type of
information usually relates to
the entity, event or
phenomenon that is the
subject of the Information
Requirement.

Types of Information
General Information Specific Information
Open
Source
Closed
Source
Open
Source
Closed
Source

WHEN WE GATHER INFORMATION
WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF
WHETHER IT IS OPEN OR CLOSED
SOURCE INFORMATION, IT MAY
LIMIT THE WAYS WE CAN
DISSEMINATE THE INFORMATION
(PNPR 200-012)

Closed Source information is information that is
confidential and NOT publicly available, such as:
Informant reports
Investigation reports
Kinds of informants:
 Confidential
 Voluntary
 Involuntary
 Special
 Anonymous

 usually contain a Security Classification
 In Confidence
 Restricted
 Confidential
 Highly Protected
 Secret
 Top Secret

 No Security Classification but there is a
warning or proviso (caveat) that limits its
dissemination to the public.

Open Source information is information
that is PUBLICLY available.
Forms of Open Source Information:
 Raw information
 Information and opinions
 Expert reports
 Technical data
 Unstructured text
 Multimedia

Sources of OSI can include the following:
 Libraries, book stores and publishers
 Internet, Intranets
 Specialized data collection and reporting
services
 Market research or business intelligence
services
 Market research or business intelligence
services
 Professional associations
 Universities or Research Institutes
 Public Interest Groups

THE COLLECTION PHASE FOCUSES ON GATHERING
AND COLLATING INFORMATION
STEPS IN THE COLLECTION PHASE:
 ANALYZE THE INTELLIGENCE TASK/MISSION AND
IDENTIFY THE INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
 IDENTIFY WHERE THE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED.
IN IDENTIFYING AND SPECIFYING THE INFORMATION
REQUIREMENTS AND METHODS OF COLLECTION, PREPARE
AN INFORMATION COLLECTION PLAN (ICP)
 GATHER THE INFORMATION AND COLLATE IT INTO ONE
CENTRAL REPOSITORY
 EVALUATE THE INFORMATION
 DETERMINE THE VALIDITY, RELIABILITY AND
SENSITIVITY
 BEGIN TO MAKE JUDGEMENT

 Ask the right questions in order to
determine the seriousness of the
threat.
 Determine source(s) of information

 Overt Method – is an activity
undertaken to gather information,
which do not attempt to conceal the
existence of those activities or the
Mission. Includes: interviews, surveys,
requesting information, use of police
powers or collecting open source
information

Covert Methods – are activities,
which attempt to collect the information
without revealing the existence of
those activities. Includes: confidential
requests for information, surveillance,
telephone intercepts, listening devices,
informants or undercover operatives

WHY IT IS VITAL?
BECAUSE, IT WILL DEVELOP
A SYSTEMATIC AND PLANNED
APPROACH TO OUR
COLLECTION OF INFORMATION.

TWO (2) REASONS FOR ADOPTING
THE ICP
1. To ensure that we collect
information in an efficient manner.
2. To ensure that we collect
information in an effective manner

Steps:
1. the information requirements
of the Intelligence Task/Mission.
2. what information is needed to
be collected?

Steps:
3. who we will collect this
information from?
4. how we will collect this
information?

Steps:
5. who we will use to collect this
information?
6. when they should collect this
information?

 SHORT STATEMENT OF THE
MISSION/INTELLIGENCE TASK
 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE
BACKGROUND TO THE MISSION
 THE LIST OF INFORMATION
REQUIREMENTS
 LIST OF THE SOURCES AND AGENCIES
THAT NEED TO CONSULTED

METHODS OF COLLECTION THAT WILL
BE USED TO GATHER THIS INFORMATION
 LIST OF WHO WILL COLLECT THE
INFORMATION AND THE TIME FRAMES IN
WHICH THEY SHOULD COLLECT THE
INFORMATION
 DETAILS OF ANY FACTORS THAT MAY
AFFECT THE COLLECTION OF
INFORMATION

The Collection plan is a dynamic tool used
to coordinate and integrate the efforts of all
collection units and agencies. It is merely a
management tool to assist the Collection
Manager in organizing his thought processes.
The Collection Plan is continually revised as
required. It is a mental process and there is
no prescribed format. It is merely an AID and
NOT a substitute for thinking

Info
Requirement
Type of Info Source or
Agency
Collection
Method
Collection
Task
Who are the
current leaders
of the MBG
General:
- Background
Assessments
- material on
ranks &
structure
within MBG
1. PNP IG
2. TF Sanglahi
3. PRO ARMM
4. PRO 11
5. IRAD, J2
Confidential
Requests
(PIRs, EEIs)
MBG
Researcher to
complete
12/25/06
Specific:
- List of
members
- Details of
members
- Rank of
members
1. PNP IG
2. CTIC, NICA
3. Informants
4. Surveillance
Confidential
Requests
Task:
Informant
Handler
Task:
Surveillance
Team
MBG
Researcher to
complete
03/16/06
AA to
complete by
12/24/06
Technical
Team to
complete
12/24/06

PROBLEM
THE NUMBER OF INQUIRIES UNDERTAKEN
DURING THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS CAN BE
SIGNIFICANT. OFTEN WE WILL FORGET WHAT
INFORMATION WE HAVE REQUESTED OR
OVERLOOKED AND SOURCES OR AGENCIES
THAT WE HAD NOT YET CONSIDERED.

Type of
Info
Collector Date Risk Priority Positive/
Negative
Index
Profile of the
MBG
PNP IG 03/01/06 Low Urgent Positive C:docu
mentsm
bgprofil
e.word
Sub Recvd
03/16/06

FOCUSES ON INTERPRETING THE INTELLIGENCE AND
INFORMATION AND DEVELOPING INFERENCES ABOUT
WE BELIEVE IS HAPPENING
IT STARTS BY:
 BREAKING DOWN THE INFORMATION INTO ITS BASIC
AND STUDYING THE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN THOSE
ELEMENTS
 PULL THE INFORMATION TOGETHER, CONNECTING
PIECES OF INFORMATION, AND DEVELOP AN INFERENCE
ON WHAT THE INFORMATION TELL US
 INFERENCE IS TESTED FOR CONSISTENCY AND
CREDIBILITY, CONSTANTLY BEING COMPARED WITH NEW
INFORMATION AS IT COMES INTO THE PROCESS
 FORMULATE RECOMMENDATIONS OR OPTIONS

Two (2) Steps in the Processing of
Information:
 Recording
 Evaluation

COLLATE AND
SORT ALL
AVAILABLE
INFORMATION
CONDUCT
FIRST
ASSESSMENT
DEVELOP
INITIAL
INFERENCES
ARE THERE
INFORMATION
GAPS?
DEVELOP FINAL INFERENCES
AND INTELLIGENCE
RECOMMENDATION
Prepare a new
Information
Collection
Collect further
Information
and
Intelligence
Evaluate new
information
against old
information
Re-Evaluate
and Revise
Inferences
Y E S

Recording of Information
Reduction of information to writing or some other
form of graphical representation and the arranging of
information into groups of related items.
Means of recording information:
 Intelligence Journal
 Intelligence Workbook
 Situation Map
 Watch Lists/OB/Target Lists
 Identification Files

Evaluation of Information
Determination of the pertinence,
reliability and accuracy of the information;
determination of the pertinence or
significance of the information relative to
the operation, reliability of the sources or
agency, and accuracy of the information.

Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition
A Completely Reliable Refers to a Source or
Agency about whom there
is not doubt of its
reliability, trustworthiness
or competence. Information
supplied by a Source or
Agency that has in the past
proved to reliable at all
times

B Usually Reliable Refers to a Source or Agency
about whom there may be some
doubt as to its reliability,
trustworthiness or competency.
However, information obtained
from this source or agency in the
past has in the majority of
instances proved to be reliable

C Fairly Reliable Refers to a Source or Agency
about whom there is usually doubt
as to its reliability and
trustworthiness. Information
obtained from this source or
agency in the past, has proved
reliable in a moderate number of
cases.

D Not usually reliable Refers to a Source or Agency
about whom there is doubt as to
its reliability and trustworthiness.
Information supplied in the past,
is not reliable, although
occasionally valid reports have
been submitted.

E Not reliable Refers to a Source or Agency
about whom there is great doubt
as to its reliability and
trustworthiness. Past experience
has proved it to be unreliable, it
doesn’t however prevent such a
Source or Agency providing
credible information in the future.

F Cannot be Judged Refers to a Source or Agency
whose reliability has not been
determined by either experience
or investigation. There is no way
of knowing its authenticity,
trustworthiness or competency.

Validity/Accuracy of Information
1 Confirmed Refers to information which is
substantiated or confirmed by
independent sources or agencies;
the information is logical within
itself and agrees with other
information on the same subject.

2 Probably True Refers to information which gives
every indication of being accurate
but which has not been confirmed;
the information is logical within
itself and agrees with other

3 Possibly True Refers to information which has
been neither confirmed nor
contradicted; the indications are
that the information concurs
somewhat with the general body of
information and is reasonably
logical but not yet capable of
confirmation.

4 Doubtfully True Refers to information, which is
believed to be unlikely, although
the elements of possibility are not
excluded. Information has not been
contradicted nor is it logical within
itself. The information is not in
total disagreement with other

5 Improbable report Refers to information, which
contradicted by other data; is logical
within itself and in disagreement
with the general body of information
on the same subject.
6 Truth cannot be judged Refers to the information, the truth
which cannot be judged at the same
time because of the lack of
knowledge on the same subject

Sources of Information
Value Summary Index
T Direct observation by the Commander of a Unit
U Report by a penetration agent or resident agent
V Report by an AFP trooper or PNP personnel in
encounter or operation

Sources of Information
Value Summary Index
W Interrogation of a captured enemy agent or foreigner
X Observation by a Government or civilian employee or
official
Y Observation by a member of a populace
Z Documentary

Evaluating the Information
To evaluate the source properly we need
to ask ourselves two important questions:
 Where did the source or Agency get
this information?
 Why did they provide me with this
information?

Validity of the Information
Triangulation of Information:
Information
Source
or
Agency
Source
or
Agency
Source
or
Agency
Confirm or deny
Confirm or deny
Confirm or deny

TO COMMUNICATE OUR FINDINGS AND
RECOMMENDATION EITHER BY ORAL OR WRITTEN
REPORT
THREE (3) BASIC WAYS TO COMMUNICATE:
 WRITTEN INTELLIGENCE REPORT
 ORAL BRIEFINGS
 ELECTRONIC MEANS

Descriptive
Explanatory
Predictive
Estimative

is an information acquired by an
organization which, because of its
confidentiality, the confidentiality of
the means by which the information
was derived, may allow an
organization to exploit to its
advantage.

Descriptive – no predictive or
judgmental analysis.
Explanatory – seek to explain
why an incident occurred
Predictive – forward looking and
attempt to forecast an event or
situation

Should be comprehensive
Analysis must be valid
Must be timely

Importance of Risk Assessment:
In the intelligence environment,
RISK ASSESSMENT is a
Technique used to introduce
system into analytical thinking
about possible undesirable
events.

1. Identify the Risk
2. Assess the Risk
3. Treat the Risk
4. Review

HARM
HIGH MEDIUM LOW
THREAT
HIGH EXTREME MEDIUM MEDIUM
MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM NEGLIGIBLE
LOW MEDIUM NEGLIGIBLE NEGLIGIBLE

RISK
HARM THREAT
Estimation of the
consequences of
the event Estimation of the
likelihood of the
adverse event

Threats are caused by something or someone
The causes of adverse events are the agents of
threat
Adverse events have to threaten something. The
target or thing being threatened is the object at
risk.

The AIM of a threat assessment:
“What is the threat to an
object, posed by an agent?”
Once the question has been properly posed, it is then
possible to assess the potential harm to the object
against the likelihood of the threat.

THREAT
INTENT CAPABILITY
DESIRE EXPECTATION KNOWLEDGE RESOURCES

 Explanatory Product
Executive Summary
The executive summary
should provide the reader with
the critical findings and
judgments of the assessment.

SITUATION UPDATE
This portion must contain
the general presentation of the
intelligence report.
Avoid using long and complex
sentences.

ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT
The analysis must be
briefed but give the central
meaning of the situation
update. This portion must
contain information vital to the
arguments being drawn.

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