Contenu connexe Similaire à Evolving Sunnyvale (20) Evolving Sunnyvale1. 1
From the Past
to the Present &
Preparing for the Future
www.ftscities.com
Evolving Sunnyvale: March 20, 2014
Freedman Tung + Sasaki, San Francisco
Co-Hosts: Silicon Valley Leadership Group - Friends of Caltrain - Sunnyvale Cool
Funding Courtesy of the Silicon Valley Community Foundation
Erik Calloway - Principal
Urban Design
Public Realm
District & City Strategies
Land Use & Development Regulations
Trends and City Evolution
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
2. 2
The World Has
Changed
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Climate Change + Oil Price Instability
What We See
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
3. 3
Housing foreclosures + credit crisis
What We See
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Market instability + government budget crisis
What We See
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
4. 4
What is really
going on?
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Perspective on Change
Source: Celebratebig.com 2007© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
5. 5
Up to the Late 19th Century:
Communities Were Small, Spread-Out, Self-
Sufficient, and Primarily Agricultural
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Early 20th Century:
“Industry” Reorganized Around Assembly Lines
• Mechanized
• Synchronized
• Low skill
• Organized by
component tasks
• Mass production
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
6. 6
Population Population
Early 20th Century:
Wide-spread Urbanization
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Business park
Shopping Center
Housing Subdivision
City as Machine (CIAM 1933)
Economy = Making & Moving Goods:
Cities re-organized using
Industrial Principles
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
7. 7
Sunnyvale’s First General Plan: 1954-57
Neighborhoods Industrial AreasCity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The Post-WWII
Advent of Suburbia:
1950 - 1970
Sunnyvale’s
population grew
almost 500%
Image: LIFE Magazine© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
8. 8
Mass Produced Suburbs
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Population
Growth
Sunnyvale’s Population Growth 1912-2006
Mass
Production/
Consumption
+
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
9. 9
Suburban Retail = “The Strip”
A linear pattern of commercial development along suburban arterial roadways
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
1950’s & 60’s
1960 Garey and Mission
Holt Avenue
1967 East Holt Avenue
* Free-standing * Exclusively Auto-oriented * Surface Parked *
10. 10
The Interstate Highway (1950’s)
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
80s/90s: Enlarged Retail Formats
Replacing Strip Retail (20 malls per year - USA)
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
11. 11
1979 - Sunnyvale Town Center Mall
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
New facilities, which were large to fit the new equipment
or justify the cost of the investment, only fit on the
outskirts of existing cities or in new “industrial suburbs”
along existing or planned rail lines.
Libby’s Cannery est. 1907
Early 20th Century Pattern of Work
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
12. 12
Early 1900’s Sunnyvale was conceived of a railroad served factory town
similar to those along the shores of the Great Lakes.
Sunnyvale has always been
forward looking & driven by industry
“City of Destiny – A Manufacturing Center”
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
• Business Parks
• Corporate
Campuses
• Edge Cities
1960s-80s
Suburban
Workplace
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
13. 13
Low Density and Auto Oriented Single Use: No activity centers
Landscaping but no “Public” Space Inward focus hides activity
Characteristics of 20th Century CBDs & Business Parks
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Sunnyvale’s First
General Plan: 1954-57
Sunnyvale
Today
Housing Workplace
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
14. 14
The Experiment FIT with the
industrial economy of the Era.
Business park
Shopping Center
Housing Subdivision © Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
When the nature of
work changes,
the City is
Entirely Transformed
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
15. 15
Fundamental Changes
Since the Early 20th
Century:
Retail Trends
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The financial foundation of commercial
strip development has disappeared
1954: IRS changes commercial building depreciation from 40 to 7 years
1986: Tax Reform Act returns commercial building depreciation to 39 years
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
16. 16
DOWNTOWN
STRIP CORRIDOR
SHOPPING
CENTERS
Investment
moves to
Investment
moves to
Freeway
Corridor
Crossroads-located centers have been
draining economic vitality from retail properties
everywhere else.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
“For the first time since the
early 1950’s, no regional malls
are under construction in the
United States.”
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2011 & Robert Gibbs – Retail Traffic Magazine
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
17. 17
Global Trend: Internet sales growing 3X faster
than brick-and-mortar
Quote source: strategic economics
In the rapidly
evolving and
oversupplied retail
real estate universe
Most areas need less
retail, not more.
‘Endless strip
construction is over.’
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
18. 18
Supportable Pattern
of Retail Centers
Retail Entitlements
Existing Retail
Zoning
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Disinvested and/or ready for change
Vacant Land
Obsolete formatsLow site coverage
Vacant, low value buildings
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
19. 19
Fundamental Changes
Since the Early 20th
Century:
Mobility Trends
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
In 1950 People Traveled
Around 10 miles per day
5 miles to Santa Clara
21. 21
Population growth has been
dwarfed by vehicle growth.
Source – NPTS
CommonIndex
Vehicle Growth Rate = 1.5 X Population Growth Rate
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
In 1950 People Traveled
Around 10 miles per day
Today People Travel
Around 40 miles per day
5 miles to Santa Clara 20 miles to San Mateo
22. 22
So we have learned to associate
growth with degraded mobility…
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
But Why are we
driving so much?
14© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
23. 23
The Myth:
Americans drive so much because
we love our cars and we love to
drive.
We are not going to change
because we don’t want to.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The Truth: We Drive so
much in response to our
Pattern of Land Use &
Development.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
24. 24
B
A
3 Destinations
6 ITE Trips
C
B
A
3 Destinations
6 ITE Trips
3 Destinations
2 ITE Trips
B
A
C
C
Mixed-Use =
Reduced Trips &
Fewer miles traveled
25. 25
Connected Network = Smaller Streets & More Capacity
As communities become more compact,
the demand for transit increases
DENSITY
VMT
DENSITY
VEHICLEOWNERSHIP
26. 26
Fundamental Changes
Since the Early 20th
Century:
Housing Trends
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Recession a record number
of foreclosures and historically
slow sales/ construction…
FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
27. 27
… especially in California
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
But when you look a little more closely…
Central Los Angeles – every 600 homes
< 20 miles =
every 200 homes
20 - 40 miles =
every 100 home
> 40 miles =
every 50 homes
Approx. average number of households per foreclosure activity (RealtyTrac)
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
28. 28
Nationally, “housing prices
in walkable urban places
have [a three-fold] premium
over drivable single-family
housing. . . .
[this reflects] the dramatic
shift in values that has
taken place over that time
period”
…Urban Locations are Holding Value Better
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Business park
Shopping Center
Housing Subdivision
Does the 20th Century approach
to city-building FIT with
the new economy?
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
29. 29
How do we create
value in the new
economy?
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Wide-Spread & Rapid Digitalization
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
30. 30
1950 - 0% of information was digital
2007 - 94% of information was digital
Source: Manual lima© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
At first, many thought it was just a change in tools.
But digitalization has led to
Fundamental changes in work activity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
31. 31
With significantly less labor needed
to move and make things, people
can spend more time thinking,
strategizing, and analyzing
(augmented by computing power)
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
This process is called Innovation and it has
become the primary wealth-generator
in the new economy.
+ =
=
+ =
+
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
32. 32
Saskia Sassen: this is not just about
software and design, but also about
mining and agricultural industries,
all industries.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
BLS 2003 PC & Internet
Use at Work (table2)
33. 33
2011
Lynda Gratton
“We are witnessing now
…a break with the past as
significant as that in the
late 18th and early 19th
centuries when parts of
the world began the long
process of
industrialization.”
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
What can we learn
about innovation from
Silicon Valley?
Based on: Christophe Lécuyer - Making silicon valley© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
34. 34
In the early 1900’s the Bay Area’s economy
was centered around San Francisco as a
major financial center and hub of trade.
There was a relatively small manufacturing
base which primarily served the regional
market.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
Amateur radio hobbyists: information sharing, experimentation,
technical innovation
Vintagehamstaiton.com
35. 35
Electronics component entrepreneurs: High tech manufacturing and
the relationship between research, engineering, and production
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
Lockheed Martin
in Sunnyvale 1957
Moffet Park 1971
NASA
In Sunnyvale 1937
NASA and Department of Defense
spending were significant sources of
demand for early silicon valley industry
36. 36
Semiconductor wafer
diffusion area, circa 1958
Credit: Fairchild Camera
and Instrument
Corporation
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
Electronics component entrepreneurs (spin-off companies):
High tech manufacturing, supplied by vacuum tube industry
Fairchild Semiconductor 1960 - Credit: Courtesy of Wayne Miller/Magnum Photos
New management techniques, collaborative organizational structures
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
37. 37
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
1970s+
Integrated Circuit
Electronics component spin-off companies: created new markets world-
wide and built up the venture capital markets in the region
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
1970s+
Integrated Circuit
Electronics component spin-off companies:
drew from a pool of semiconductor workers
38. 38
Built on the established regional electronics
components industry
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
1970s+
Integrated Circuit
1980s
PCs
In the tradition of
amateur radio
enthusiasts
The Origins of Silicon Valley
1920s
Radio
1940s
Vacuum tube
1950s/60s
Semiconductor
1970s+
Integrated Circuit
1980s
PCs
1990s-Today
software
Continuing the tradition of
entrepreneurship, innovative technology, and the changing workplace
39. 39
• Built on existing strengths
• Synergy between research, design,
engineering, and manufacturing activity
• Skilled labor pool
• Access to investors (San Francisco)
• Access to customers (Defense/Nasa)
Silicon Valley’s Success:
Accumulation of Local Skills & Unique Knowledge
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Innovation is a social process
REQUIRES
• Group
Collaboration
• Different
Specializations,
Skills,
Experiences,
Perspectives
Source: analytics20.org
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
40. 40
In the Workplace
• In the office and the lab
• In the conference room
Outside the Workplace
• In cafes, bars and restaurants
• During breaks, recreation and
leisure
• Especially while socializing
Essential Principle: Innovation requires
settings that bring people together
to collaborate and exchange ideas face-to-face
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Golden Gate Park
Golden Gate Bridge
Treasure Island &
the Bay
Downtown,
Financial District,
SOMA
SFO
Digital Sharing in SF
- Twitter
- Flickr
- Both
Source: ERIC FISCHER© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
41. 41
Centerless Workplace “Vital Center”
To foster creativity & innovation
cities must provide “Vital Centers”
Clusters of activity, density, mix, and settings for interaction
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Essential Principle:
Put Ideas on Display
Public studio viewing room
BBC Sport production activity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
42. 42
Simply dressing the old inward focused, isolated model with
modern architecture and more trees…
apple
google
nvidia
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
…or adding a few floors to the same model will not help us
create truly prosperous and sustainable communities.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
43. 43
The evolution of the most innovative cities points the way to
a new model of Vibrant Communities in the New Economy
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Changes are Already
Underway INSIDE
the Workplace
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
44. 44
Changes INSIDE the Workplace:
New
Work Processes
New
Offices Layouts
New
Workspace Formats
Decentralization & skilled labor i.e.: Pixar, Google,
Amazon, Facebook
Co-working spaces, work cafes,
“Hacker villages”…
GOOGLE
AMENITY
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
When the nature of
work changes,
the City is
Entirely Transformed
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
45. 45
But the City has not
changed…yet
30© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Low Density and Auto Oriented Single Use: No Activity Centers
Landscaping but no “Public” Space Inward focus hides activity
The 20th Century Assembly Line City…
…no longer fits the needs of the innovation economy
46. 46
Roughly 80% of
Peery Park built
out between
1960 and 1990
Before the
internet, email,
smartphones,
etc.
1981 LUTE
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
To be successful and prosperous
in the new economy,
we must physically re-shape cities
to align with contemporary lifestyles
and support innovation
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
47. 47
Accommodate a
Dynamic Mix of Uses
in Close Proximity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Segregated by type of work
(office, R+D, manufacturing)
with little variation
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
48. 48
The Heart of Manufacturing
Average 40-50%
Manufacturing
Manufacturing %
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
> 70%
The area in and around
Sunnyvale contains some
of the highest density of
manufacturing in the Bay
Area
Source: The Concord Group
Lower Average Wage
Higher Average Wage
AverageWage
PerWorker
Source: The Concord Group
49. 49
Changing Industry in Peery Park
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
00
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Manufacturing
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
00
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bioscience Bioscience
employment has
grown 10% per year
since 1990
The industry has
grown 10x in last four
years
Technical manufacturing
industries are taking the
place of traditional
manufacturing
Manufacturing jobs in
Peery Park have gained
86% since the recession
--- Businesses
Jobs
Source: The Concord Group
Contemporary Business Ecosystem:
Beyond Simple “Office” & “Industrial” Categories
Dense Collaborative Network of Partners, Suppliers, Customers
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
50. 50
Companies’ Needs Vary
Based on the Type of Work Activities
THINKING PHYSICAL PRODUCTION
Service Software Research &
Development
(R&D)
Design &
Engineering
(D&E)
Component
Production
Product
Assembly
from
Components
50% of
businesses
33% of
businesses
50% of
businesses
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Companies’ Needs Vary at
Different Stages in their Lifecycle
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
51. 51
Range of Building & Workspace Types
Established Corporate Space
Quality Medium Sized Space
Creative rehab – lower cost spaces
New lower cost, small scale space
Tenant Mix with a Single Building or Complex
Source: 5M/Forest City© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
52. 52
Strategically
Reshape the
Pattern of Activity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Activity generating retail takes up the
least amount of land in a city but is a
critical ingredient of building vibrant
communities.
Where (and how) to build retail is a
key strategic decision facing suburban
cities.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
53. 53
“We have the
opportunity in this
hiatus to rethink how
we deliver retail in
better transportation-
linked urban centers,
moving away from car-
dependent models.”
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Cities can strategically position
themselves to align with evolving
retail development formats and
trends in the real estate industry.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
55. 55
Major Opportunity: Re-organize workplace
districts around their unique pattern of retail
Lunchtime Activity
• Convenience (3min
walk)
• Variety
• Small plazas and
outdoor eating
After Work Activity
• Happy hour
• Home-bound errands
• Health and exercise
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Create Attractive,
Livable Places:
Amenity, Image, and
Publicness
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
56. 56
20th Century Model:
Plenty of Landscaping but no “Public” Space
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The Emerging 21st Century City Model:
Settings for Convenience, Interaction, Activity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
59. 59
Google:
Mountain View, CA
VM Ware:
Stanford Research Park,
Palo Alto, CA
Street View
Street View
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Amazon: South Lake Union, Seattle, WA
VM Ware = 26, Facebook = 31, Google = 69
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
60. 60
Foundsf.org
South Park, San Francisco, CA
Walk Score = 89 Transit Score = 100
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Plan for
Convenience Living
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
61. 61
A Fundamental Shift:
The decline of “Drive until you can buy”
2010
Smaller housing units - close
to mass transit, work, and 24-
hour amenities gain favor over
large houses on big lots at the
suburban edge.
ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate
2013
Development continues to
shift away from the suburbs
to more urban lifestyles
where infill locations “remain
hot.”
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Source: “More Than 'Millennials': Colleges Must Look Beyond Generational Stereotypes”
Mano Singham, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Oct 11, 2009
Purchasing Power of Millennials
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
62. 62
CEOs for Cities survey of
25 – 34 year old college graduates:
• Almost 64 percent of them
reported they pick where they
want to live before launching a
job search.
• They are about 90% more likely
to live in close-in urban
neighborhoods
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
64. 64
The Mission District,
San Francisco
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The “Creative Class” Craves Vital Centers
for living, working, and recreation
Activity & Street Life Public SpacesTransit
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2012
65. 65
Vital Centers are Attractive to Compact Households
Changing Household Composition
Household Type 1970 2000 2030
HH with Children 45% 33% 27%
HH without Children 55% 67% 73%
Source: Arthure C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Source: “More Than 'Millennials': Colleges Must Look Beyond Generational Stereotypes”
Mano Singham, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Oct 11, 2009
Vital Centers are Attractive to Empty Nesters
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
66. 66
Housing & Lifestyle Choices
• Along future improved El Camino Real transit
• In and around Downtown
• Close to the City’s train stations
• Consider in and around workplace districts
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Reshape the
Mobility Network for
Contemporary
Lifestyles
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
67. 67
The Traditional Metropolis: Central City Model
Many residential commuter suburbs of a central City
20th Century Model: Low Density & Auto Oriented
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
68. 68
The traditional relationship between the
metropolitan center and the suburbs is
transforming around “a new, regionally
centered entrepreneurial economy that is
committed to the enhancement of local
places” (building the polycentric region)
The “Polycentric” Metropolis
Regional entrepreneurial economy
composed of sub-regional units which rely
on the enhancement of local places
(Building the Polycentric Region)
Per-capita vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. Total vehicle miles traveled by Americans
(in millions)
Source: FHWA
Changing Lifestyles:
8 Straight Years of Declining VMT
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
69. 69
Changing Lifestyles:
Commute by Transit
commute trips by transit (w/in ½ mi of stations vs. entire region)
20th Century Model: Synchronized Workday,
Managed from the Top-Down
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
70. 70
Changing Lifestyles:
The Death of the 9 to 5
Source: Dunham-Jones, Retrofitting Suburbia© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Not many people know that Over 70% of all trips
are for family, personal, or recreation reasons.
Source: 2001 NHTS© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
71. 71
Personal / recreational trips are
driven by convenience
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Transit-Connected Hubs of Activity:
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
72. 72
Activity + Good Urbanism
goes a long way…
…but to be truly successful
in the new era, cities must
do more.
50© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
20th Century Assembly Line Economy:
Economic Value
Created by Large Firms
• Build Infrastructure
• Attract Talent
• Train Employees
• Provide Benefits
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
73. 73
20th Century Assembly Line Economy:
Economic Value
Created by Large Firms
Economic Development
Attract Large Firms
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Wrigley
Change #1: The scale & complexity of business
operations has increased dramatically
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
74. 74
Change #2: Highly connected network of
specialized, collaborating partners,
and service providers
Administration
Production
Production
WarehouseDispatch
Social
Club
Silos
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Change #3: Sharp growth in producer services
To service the more
complex business
ecosystem.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
SERVICES:
Community,Social
andPersonal
CONSUMPTION:
Wholesale/RetailTrade,
Restaurants,&Hotels
SERVICES:
Financing,Insurance,
RealEstate,&Business
PRODUCTION:
Manufacturing
PRODUCTION:
Agriculture,
Mining,&Utilities
CONSUMPTION:
Construction
1980 1990 2000 2008
Source: Sassen – Cities in a World Economy (2012)
• Advertising
• Consulting
• Accounting
• Design
• Engineering
• Software
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
75. 75
2006-2011 Job Growth By Sector: SF to SJ
SanFranciscoCountySanMateoCountySantaClaraCounty
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: econovue
Firm Size
1 to 9 10 to 99
100 to
499
Over
500
All firms 48% 20% 5% 17%
Manufacturing Firms 49% 32% 7% 11%
Professional, Scientific, Technical,
and Other Services Firms 75% 16% 2% 7%
All employment 11% 24% 14% 51%
Manufacturing Employment 5% 22% 18% 55%
Professional, Scientific, Technical,
and Other Services Employment 24% 34% 13% 29%
The Majority of Producer Services are
Small & Medium Sized Firms
81%
91%
58%
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
76. 76
Change #4: Small and medium-sized firms
have become the most dynamic component
of the economy.
Survey: In the next 10 years who will drive innovation the most?
67%
To be successful in this
transformed economic landscape,
Cities must:
1. Actively attract and
accommodate small and medium
sized firms along with large ones.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
77. 77
The Critical Role of Small Firms &
Start-Ups in the Innovation Process
Large firms innovate by purchasing small firms &
integrating innovative components
Over 100 including:
Android, Picasa,
Frommers, Zagat
Over 30 including:
Instagram
Over 40 including:
Siri
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
To be successful in this
transformed economic landscape,
Cities must:
2A. Attract Knowledge Workers &
Innovative Businesses.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
78. 78
“Innovation
comes from
social scenes,
from passionate
and connected
groups of
people.”
WIRED Magazine: “Where Ideas Come From” Oct 2010
Innovation Starts with Talented People
Innovative companies locate near
“talent pools.”
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
79. 79
The “Creative Class” Craves Vital Centers
for living, working, and recreation
Activity & Street Life Public SpacesTransit
The same characteristics that drive
innovation & sustainability© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
To be successful in this
transformed economic landscape,
Cities must:
2B. Produce Knowledge Workers &
Innovative Businesses.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
80. 80
The DIY Generation
Cloudmagazine.com
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Make the City A “Knowledge Center”
Innovation Anchors: “Institutions” that actively
facilitate collaboration and knowledge exchange
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
81. 81
21st Century “Infrastructure”:
Beyond Data, Energy, & Transportation
MediaCity
Shared Research Facilities:
technology centers that promote
collaboration and education.
Facilities provide scientists with
technical know-how and access to
state-of-the-art instrumentation,
technologies, and materials.
Shared Production Studio Facilities:
logistics, management, and post
production services, and satellite
uplink.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
The Coming Wave
of Growth and
Prosperity
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
82. 82
Sunnyvale and
the Bay Area
will continue to
grow and change
Source: ABAG & CA Dpt. of finance
Bay Area Growth 2000-2040
Source: U.S. Census 2005 & City of Sunnyvale
Sunnyvale Growth 2005-2025
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Employment on the Rise across the Bay Area
Job growth drives demand for all candidate land uses
Source: The Concord Group
Dotcom Peak 2020Today2008
83. 83
Improving Economy
National unemployment rate steadily decreasing
Source: BLS
12/2013
San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara MSA = 5.8%
San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont MSA = 5.6%
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Improving Economy
Bay Area Real Estate Market is Strong
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
84. 84
Improving Economy
Stock market is at record highs
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Summary of Global Forces
Driving a New Era of City Change
• Changing Pattern & Role of Retail
• Needs of the Innovation Economy
• Demand for Walkable Urbanism &
Convenience Living
• Population Growth &
Demographic Change
• Sustainability
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
85. 85
Cities that align with
these Global Trends
will have a prime
advantage attracting
talent and investment.
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Looking to
the Future
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
86. 86
Focus Exclusively on
Attracting Big, Vertically
Integrated Firms
Physically re-shape cities
to attract and accommodate
innovators and contemporary
lifestyles
+
Assemble knowledge districts
that foster innovation and
produce innovators
Industrial Economy Innovation Economy
Building Prosperous Cities in the Innovation Economy
Requires a new approach to
Economic Development & Planning
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
• Studies have shown that up to 80% of
job growth is from existing businesses
• Focus on strengthening existing
workplace districts, activity centers, and
neighborhoods
• Target opportunities related to existing
City assets
Build on Local Strengths
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
87. 87
• Potential for Change
• Existing Conditions
• Market Demand
• Feasible
Development Types
Don’t Use a
One-Size-Fits-All
Approach2011 General Plan
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Place Types
vs.
Land Use
Essential Principle:
Plan Places for People
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
88. 88
Suburban Office Park vs. Vital Workplace Center
Same use, different district character
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
Multi-family “Projects” & Housing Sub-divisions
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
90. 90
If We Focus on Building
Places for People We Will
Be Successful Because…
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014
…in the New Era of:
• Specialization
• Networked Businesses
• Digital Communication
• Collaboration
• Innovation
Place Matters More than Ever
© Freedman Tung + Sasaki 2014