This document discusses opportunities to improve major transportation projects in the Bay Area through two initiatives: 1. Transit 2050+, a connected network plan that would establish a long-term vision and priorities for regional transit to guide project selection. 2. The Major Project Advancement Policy (MAP) used by MTC to sequence funding for large projects. The MAP could be strengthened over time through progressive stage gates to better manage risks and ensure policy alignment as projects develop. Regional planning efforts should focus first on developing a service-based vision through Transit 2050+ before prioritizing individual projects to deliver that vision. Close coordination is needed between Transit 2050+ and the MAP to advance the right projects. Advocacy

1. Today
Welcome and introductions (5m)
Megaprojects 101 (10m)
The Opportunities (40m):
● Planning and project selection
● Project advancement and risk management
Taking Action (5m)
Adjourn

2. Megaprojects 101
● The US in general and California in particular have higher costs and slower
delivery of major projects than elsewhere in the world.
● There are challenges and opportunities for improvement across the project
lifecycle. There are many causes and no silver bullet.
● Good projects start with good planning.
● Across the project lifecycle, there is a need to build up public sector capacity.

3. Megaproject Lifecycle
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
Service
“Project Definition
and Development”
“Project
Selection”
“Project Delivery”
Preliminary
Design
Construction
Procurement Closeout
Detailed
Design

4. Megaproject Lifecycle
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
Service
“Project Definition
and Development”
“Project
Selection”
Preliminary
Design
Construction
Procurement Closeout
Detailed
Design
Establish network
vision and select
projects that align with
vision.
Evaluate options and
determine preferred
option.
Refine preferred option,
conduct environmental
analysis, clarify scope and
cost.
Refine preferred option, finalize
project designs and requirements.
Assess delivery options. Sometimes
part of procurement.
Prepare project for market,
bid contractors and
determine workforce
requirements
Bring project to service.
Build the project and prepare
for operations.
Monitor and evaluate.

5. Megaproject Lifecycle
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
Service
“Project Definition
and Development”
“Project
Selection”
“Project Delivery”
Preliminary
Design
Construction
Procurement Closeout
Detailed
Design
Lock-In
Commit
Too Early
Change
Orders
Better-
ments
Cost
Anchor

6. Current regional efforts focus on project
selection, definition and development
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
“Project
Selection”
Project
Development
Service
“Project Delivery”
Construction
Procurement Closeout
“Project Definition
and Development”
Detailed
Design

7. Two Opportunities for Change
1. Transit 2050+ (Connected Network Plan)
“Project Selection”
2. Major Project
Advancement Policy
“Project Definition
and Development”
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
Project
Development
Detailed
Design

8. Current Project Selection (Identification) Process:
Local Transit Proposals are Filtered through Regional Transit Process
Source: SPUR

9. Result: A Bottom-up, fiscally constrained plan
“But advocates are correct in pointing out that, despite robust service increases at Muni, AC
Transit, and BART, it did not scope out a comprehensive vision for frequent seamless service.”

10. Source: SPUR
Ideal Process:
Priority projects emerge from a strategic regional transit plan
Action
#18

11. A Service Vision
for Bay Area Transit

12. ● Envision an integrated network;
● Set ambitious goals
○ “Double transit use by 2040”
○ “Increase # of jobs within ¼ mi. of transit by 50%”
○ “Reduce travel time between major centers”
● Prioritize transit projects that advance network goals
Network Approach - Seattle

13. Network Approach - Switzerland

14. Background: Current Planning and Project Selection
Approach
● Plan Bay Area is the region’s current Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). Adopted in
2022, the Plan includes a 30-year program of transit projects and investments (both
large individual projects and “categories” of smaller projects).
● By law, RTP’s must be fiscally constrained – meaning that MTC can include only those
projects that could be built and maintained using reasonably foreseeable future funding
sources. In Plan Bay Area, MTC stretched the definition of “fiscally constrained” to
assume a regional transportation measure.
● MTC was able to include a particularly large number of transit investments in the plan
based on this assumption. But there severe constraints on real funding capacity at
any given moment in time. So it would be valuable for money we have to go further.

15. The Bay Area’s Service Based Vision, Transit 2050+
will be developed as part of Plan Bay Area 2050+
Advantages
● Leverages existing staff resources
● Visionary plan will align with
fiscally-constrained plan
● New approach to planning can inform
prioritization of capital projcts (Plan Bay
Area 2050 already used to prioritize
capital projects)

16. Transit 2050+: 6 Step Process

17. Transit 2050+ & Plan Bay Area Update

18. Desired Outcome
A visionary, long term plan for connected,
seamless transit across our region identifying:
● Major hubs, corridors, target travel times
between major centers
● Service frequencies
● Quality of service policies (integrated
fares, service)
Estimation of operations funding required for
service
Identification of governance reforms needed
to deliver
● Participate in visioning to ʻdraw the mapʼ
- Q1, Q2, 2023; Pay attention to the
goals/metrics
● Q3-Q4, 2023 - Watchdog identification &
evaluation of projects - are we leading
with service, or projects?
● Monitor the consistency between MTC
and agency-based planning.
● Call for the institutional governance
reforms that support realize the vision -
network management, rail governance
reforms, project delivery center of
excellence
What you can do

19. Two Opportunities for Change
1. Transit 2050+ (Connected Network Plan)
“Project Selection”
2. Major Project
Advancement Policy
“Project Definition
and Development”
Regional
Planning
Project
Initiation
Project
Development
Detailed
Design

20. Background: Current Conditions
● MTC has very little control over specific projects. It does not deliver or directly oversee
projects and plays a relatively minor role in funding them directly.
• MTC’s most direct lever of influence over projects is its control of the Regional
Transportation Plan. Transit projects must be included in the RTP to be eligible for most major
sources of federal and state funding.
• MTC can also influence whether and when eligible projects can access major sources of
federal and state funding through prioritization policies and endorsements.
MTC has a strong interest in ensuring that major transit capital projects are delivered on-time and
within budget as part of a strategically sequenced regional portfolio. When projects are delayed or
require urgent infusions of extra money, it affects other projects in the region’s pipeline.

21. Major Project Advancement Policy (MAP)
In 2022, MTC initiated the Major Project Advancement Policy (MAP). For large, regionally
significant projects in Plan Bay Area, MTC states that the purpose of the MAP is to;
1) Prioritize and sequence federal, state, and regional discretionary funding requests
2) Develop MTC’s role in risk management and;
3) Ensure consistency with regional policies.
MTC has broken the development of the MAP into three corresponding parts, adopting the “funding
strategy” in October 2022. Development and adoption of policy reinforcements and risk
management approach are targeted for early 2023.

22. Stage gates - evaluate direction and manage risk
The MAP framework is modeled after a “stage gate” process – and staff has indicated they intend to further reinforce this
approach as they develop risk management and policy reinforcements.

23. MAP Levels
The MAP ”Funding Strategy” adopted by MTC in 2022 establishes 4 “ MAP levels” that group and sequence projects from
Plan Bay Area based on readiness and funding status. MTC has used these levels to establish initial funding endorsements
for major state and federal funding sources
MAP Level & MTC Definition Example Projects
Map Level 1: Projects In, Nearing Construction
Projects with more than 50% committed funding and construction start by 2028 or Transit
Megaprojects with approved or in-process Federal Transit Administration (FTA) grants
Map Level 2: Projects Emerging from Project Development and Readying for
Construction
Projects with more than 30% committed funding and construction start by 2035
Map Level 3: Pipeline Projects in Development
Projects with less than 30% committed funding
Map Level 4: “Tier 2 PBA 2050 projects” Projects with assumed construction start
after 2035, seeking project development (planning and design) funding only
BART to SVII
DTX
Link21

24. Full Funding & Construction
MAP Levels
MTC intends to use these same levels as the basis for the Policy Consistency and Risk Management components of the MAP,
potentially expanding on the requirements for each level. Projects advance between levels by meeting funding, readiness, risk
and policy thresholds. The intent is that MAP levels will assist in sequencing projects for capital funding while
progressively ensuring policy conformity and readiness.
Level
1
2
3
4
BART to SVII
DTX
Link 21
Level
1
2
3
4
DTX
Link 21
Level
1
2
3
4
Link 21
New Project
New Project
BART to SVII DTX
Newer Project
MAP
Plan Bay Area
Example of projects progressing through MAP over 10 to 15 years
Plan Bay Area Plan Bay Area
-Update Process - -Update Process - -Update Process -

25. Challenges
The MAP process MTC has laid out is well suited to its initial purpose of sequencing
projects for funding opportunities. For it to be effective at its secondary goals of managing
project risk and ensuring policy adherence it will need to:
Progressively get stronger over time, through a combination of:
○ relationships with externally-imposed deadlines where scope is fixed.
○ new staffing, as MTC is not currently staffed to engage in robust, credible
megaproject oversight
○ legislative reinforcements and/or new funding sources, that would further
strengthen MTC’s authority to exercise oversight (outside of the RTP)

26. Suggested Approach
MTC should progressively strengthen MAP stage gates over time. This means MTC’s stage gates and
project oversight would be strongest for projects that are currently in early days.
1) A progressively strengthened series of MAP stage gates would allow MTC sufficient time to resource and
build the expertise needed to engage in robust megaproject oversight - particularly in later phases of
design and procurement. Ideally this approach would ultimately be paired with legislative reinforcements
and/or new funding sources that would further strengthen MTC’s authority to exercise oversight.
Level Intensity of Stage Gate
1 Light
2 Light
3 Moderate
4 Intensive
Level Intensity of Stage Gate
1 Light
2 Moderate
3 Intensive
4 Intensive
Level Intensity of Stage Gate
1 Moderate
2 Intensive
3 Intensive
4 Intensive
Current MAP cycle Next MAP cycle
(post adoption of PBA2050+)
Next MAP cycle
(post adoption of PBA2060)
Link 21
DTX
BART to SVII
Link 21
DTX
Link 21

27. Regional Transportation Plan &
Major Project Advancement Policy
2022 2023 2024 2025
MTC Adopts
PlanBayArea
2050
Development of Transit 2050+
Regional Transportation Plans
Policy administration and updates
MTC adopts funding
strategy and establishes
MAP levels
MTC adopts
risk management &
policy approaches
Potential Significant
Revision to MAP
MTC Adopts
PBA2050+
Development of Plan Bay Area 2050+
Implementation
2021
Development of MAP
Connected
Network Plan
Major Project Advancement
Policy
Projects from
PBA
Included in MAP
MAP informs sequencing of
projects and development of
Transit2050+ and Plan Bay
Area 2050+
Plan Bay Area 2050+ results
in revised project list and
adjusted regional policy
priorities
Etc..

28. Regional Rail (teaser)
A upcoming Regional Rail study has the potential to improve major projects.
The study draws conclusions that the region would benefit from stronger regional rail
capabilities but does not make recommendations to take action. So advocacy will be
needed to support action
Expect public meetings in February…

29. Shows benefits of regional activity

31. Actions
February - MTC Major Project Advancement Policy
2023 throughout the year - Connected Network Plan
2023 TBD - Regional Rail next steps

32. Sources
Sources
transitcosts.com
projectdelivery.enotrans.org
spur.org/publications/spur-report/2020-09-29/more-less