In a dynamic world the urgence for Data Driven Forecasting & Planning has never been greater.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning is part of the (shared) strategic responsibilities recruiters have to pro-actively develop a as good as possible talent supply, now & in the (near) future.
Data Driven Hiring doesn't work,without paying attention to expected need for talent. So in a dynamic world the urgence for Data Driven Forecasting & Planning has never been greater. This workshop intents to give an idea what WF&P is about to recruitment professionals
In this 1 day workshop recruiters will learn about the basics of Workforce Forecasting & Planning in a VUCA, dynamic world.
7. Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
8. Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5.How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
9. How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
13. How ? Assess implications
Main questions to be answered:
• what WF needed (demand) ?
• what & who is available (supply) ?
• what challenges making WF supply
ready to meet future WF demand ?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
14. How ? Assess implications
• Identify changes, gaps, risks, challenges &
opportunities
• Identify critical workforce issues, key (risk)
areas of need/action for stakeholders
• Prioritise ‘issues’ to be addressed
• Get shared mindset about priorities
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
15. How ? Assess forecasted roles
Identifying changes in roles:
• Roles remaining almost unchanged
• Enhanced roles requiring training of current
staff in additional new skills
• New roles requiring quality, type & level of
staff not (yet) present (in required numbers)
• New roles not requiring qualified staff
• Obsolete or declining current roles
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
16. How ? Assessment results
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Source: BCG
17. How ? Gaps: inadequate staff supply
Short fall:
‒ not enough quantity of staff and/or
‒ not enough (yet) qualified staff
Mismatch:
• Inadequate supply for unchanged roles
• Inadequate supply for partly changing roles
• Inadequate supply for new roles
Surplus:
• roles becoming obsolete or declining
• employees too low quality /level /potential
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
18. How ?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Current supply
Future supply Forecast demand
Assess Gaps / Surpluses
Anticipate in WF Plan
Tactics begin!WFP implementation
(Talent) Market
development
exploration & scans
19. How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
20. How ? Step 4 Anticipation
How to bridge/close
any quantitative & qualitative gaps between:
• workforce needed to drive business forward in
future &
• present workforce (development)
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
21. How ? Anticipation
Gap implications
• How to close gap between current & future
• How to deal with surpluses & shortfalls
• Solutions for short & (near) future
• HR strategy development & adjustment
• Business direction & pace adjustment
Action plan to close the Gap
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
22. How ? Gap closing options
• Buy Recruit
• Borrow Hire Contingency staff
• Build Develop & Train
• Bind Retain
• Restructure Redesign org. structure
• Transform Innovate, use tech
• Review Strategy / business model
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
23. How ? Gap closing HR options
• Re-deploy employees
• Recruit right quantity & quality new talent
• Retain key people
• Develop & train, employability & capacity
• Define workforce employment categories
• Engage a network of quality flex-workers
• Reduce & outplace “redundant” employees
• Develop out- & insourcing partnerships
• Organisation (re) design, talent allocation
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
24. HR Plans taking into consideration:
• Recruiting specialised talent in tight labour market
• Multi-generational recruitment, retention strategies
• Need for staff with expertise of other sectors
• Increase & develop the qualifications of staff
• Development for new skills & knowledge
• Retaining corporate knowledge
• Identifying, engaging & retaining key performers
• Building & managing a diversified workforce
• Stakeholder management, EoC reputation
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
25. How ? Gap Closing Matrix example
WFP GAP Analysis
Shows:
Recruiting
Hiring
Selection
Perf.
Mngmnt.
Training &
Dvlpmnt.
Retention
Replace
&
Succession
Competencies not
matching demand
Recruit
the right
Select
right
Core
Comp.
Clear?
Trainable
?
Train?
Not
Matching
No future
High Turnover
Realistic
promises
Selecting
right
Is Perf.
Feedback
OK?
Key employees
retiring soon
How hire
key
players?
How
select key
players?
Etc.
Performance not
competitive
Hiring
Quality
Selecting
Quality
New ways of
working coming
Align
recruiting
Align
Selection
Methods
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
26. INTEGRATED WFP
Performance
Management
RecruitmentOrganization
Development Succession Planning
Compensation & Ben Development &
Training
Business Strategy Development & Review
Systems, Tools, Methods, Expertise, Data
Scalability & Flexibility
Why? What? When? Who? How?
Career & Mobility HR Outplacement Diversity
Human Resources Strategy & Management
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
27. How ? Anticipate realistically
HR options should makes sense
• Complementing corporate culture,maturity of
business model & management
• Aligned to business needs/objectives
• Not too demanding
• Realistic, achievable
• Agile, flexible
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
28. WFP Forecasting Report (1)
Example WFP Analysis Report content:
• Executive Summary
• Process description
• Graphs, charts & tables of important employee
demographics, segments, etc.
• Key WF characteristics, projections, findings & trends
• Core competency, skill, know how overview
• Organisation shape, structure, size & strategy
• Market intelligence, talent landscape overview
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
30. WFP Plan(ning) Report (1)
• Overall Workforce plan
Key factors in developing strategies & initiatives to mitigate
the workforce risks & opportunities.
• Workforce plan, operational (12-18 months)
Identifying actionable strategies to address a specific
workforce issues for short to medium term
• Workforce plan, strategic ( 3+ years)
Seeking to address high-level, strategic issues that will affect
availability of the required workforce
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
31. WFP Plan(ning) Report (2)
Example WFP Planning Report content:
• Executive summary
• Risks, challenges & opportunities identified in forecast
• Proposed strategies, solutions & plans + rationale
• An outline of proposed strategies, solutions & plans
• Scenarios review & implications for planning
• Cost & benefits of proposed pathway
• Relationship to other policies, programs & processes
• Implementation plan & timeframes, communication plans
& performance indicators / milestones
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
32. How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
33. Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
37. How ? Action enablers
• Stakeholder buy-in for implementation
• Implementation skills & competencies
• Ensuring budget
• Setting priorities
• Providing time frame – time horizon
• Defining milestones & KPI´s
• Ensuring role clarity & responsibilities
• Real time monitoring & reporting options
• Where planning ends, tactics begin!
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
38. How ? Action
May require
• Additional investment in training
• Communication/insight about findings & conclusions
• Diplomacy as well as pushing forward
• Options free-up time for implementing
• External implementation support
• Change management
.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
39. How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
40. How ? Step 6 Audit implementation
• Assessing accuracy forecasts & plans
• Monitoring impact plans, milestones & KPI´s
• Monitoring implementation remains on track
• Checking commitment& confidence for plans
• Analysing & discussing findings
• Reporting & presenting
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
41. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
How ? Audit
Sources for auditing WFP implementation:
• Management meetings
• Employee & customer surveys
• Focus groups
• Reviews of functional progress reports
• Reviews of lessons learned
• Organisation performance assessments, KPI’s
• Management monitoring / reporting system
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
42. How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
43. How ? Step 7 Adapt & Adjust
WFP exists in the real world
The ideal world doesn’t exist
Dealing with today’s dynamic realities
WFP Action Plan = Living Document
Evolving Roadmap
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
44. How ? a VUCA world
Today’s business environment =
• Volatile = increasing pace or rate of change
• Uncertain = lack of predictability of future
• Complex = many interconnected parts /variables
• Ambiguous = lack of clarity meaning of trends & events
Volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous are closely interconnected items,
and should be seen in close relation to each other
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
45. How ? in a VUCA world
VUCA world no longer about
• sequential (strategic) management
• 5 year plans
• business as usual
• standard operating procedures
• life time employment
• best practices on past experiences
• handful executive taking strategic decisions
• employees complying & carrying out orders
• Etc.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
46. How ? WFP in a VUCA world
VUCA quite challenging:
• more unknown & difficult to understand
• uncertainty not leading to decision paralyses
• moving at continued pace & catching up
• changing business climate: be dynamic & adapt
• growing number of dimensions to navigate
• a world full of dilemmas
• strategies becoming more & more fluid
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
47. How ? in a VUCA world
In real world, developments won’t always be as
smooth as expected
• Priorities may change
• Strategy may head off in a different direction
• Decisions not always rationally, fact/evidence‐based
• Managers get distracted by short‐term events
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
48. How ? in a VUCA world
WFP VUCA dilemmas
• Can you plan anything in a VUCA world?
• Does WFP make sense when pretty unlikely that
the future will appear in projected manner?
• What practical value do forecasts have?
• How much time & effort in view of uncertainties?
• Which time horizons realistic & still add value?
• Balancing short-term shocks & long-term needs
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
49. How ? in a VUCA world
VUCA isn’t something to be solved
• It simply is!
• Master the art of adapting in time or …
• Moving from a rail road (fixed path) model to
sail boat model (responsive to winds of change)
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
50. How ? Winning in VUCA world
WFP not easy in VUCA world but
increasingly seen as a
key to success
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
51. How ? Winning in VUCA world
WFP success factor in VUCA world:
• in-depth knowledge of current workforce
capability
• smart workforce KPI set & eco-system to
monitor developments
• being as prepared as possible for a competitive
world
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
52. How ? Winning in VUCA world
WFP more strategic view on workforce
• sense & understand implications of market dynamics
• Insight in Talent Management problems VUCA creates
• respond (better & faster) to changing conditions!
• allocate resources more (cost) effectively
• develop workforce scalability options
• how to invest in employability development
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
53. How ? Winning in VUCA world
WFP is a GPS, not a roadmap!
Offering (strategic) guidance
Thinking directionally to deal more accurately with turbulence without falling
into chaotic & ad hoc execution
Professional WFP mechanisms to identify &
respond to changing conditions, insights &
strategies
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
54. How ? Winning in VUCA world
VUCA to counter VUCA:
• Vision
• Understanding
• Clarity
• Agility & Adaptability
Adaptive performance management structure & culture
Focus on direction, insight, transparency, agility/ adaptability,
and in developing plans with “just-in-time” type solutions,
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
55. How ? Agility in VUCA world
WFP agile process
Times of “old school” static WFP are over!
• Step-by-step process, incremental & iterative
• Learning by doing
• Collaborative, active stakeholder cooperation
• Open mindset, willingness to adapt
• Adapt & adjust when new insights available,
ensuring stakeholder involvement
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
56. NB. WFP Who ?
WFP cooperative & collaborative effort
HR, business leadership & key professionals
at all levels
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
57. How ? Collaboration in VUCA world
Collaboration key dealing with Uncertainty
& Ambiguity
• Diverse sets of people
• Diverse insights, expertise & experience
• Perceiving challenges from different angles
• Synthesising opinions, ideas, visions to make best
possible, future ready decisions
• More engagement/commitment for execution
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
58. How ? Collaboration in VUCA world
Collaboration key dealing with Volatility
In volatile times, relations become paramount
• Connections
• Communicating with/by stakeholders
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
59. How ? Collaboration in VUCA world
Collaboration key dealing with Complexity
• Organization system with (social) networks
• Engaging network to understand what works,
what not & why not
• Better insight to forecast & plan better
• Process transparency WFP collaboration not
becoming too complex itself
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
60. How ? WFP Human Capital Way
Human Capital (HC) - agile - strategy
Profiling workforce in competencies
Competency performance expectations will evolve
with in- & external changing requirements
Not necessary to replace reference framework to
adapt to changing circumstances
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
61. How ? WFP Human Capital Way
HC as fundament for business success
• Talent = Starting point = Differentiator
• Strengths of workforce fundament for strategy
• Building business on qualities & ambitions of
workforce
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
62. How ? WFP Human Capital Way
1. Assess core qualities/ competencies of workforce
2. Determine competitive advantage (opportunities)
3. Assess career expectations & growth potential of
critical & core staff
4. Develop business plans on workforce strengths
5. Plan & use WF as driver of competitive advantage
6. Put plan into effect, ensure internal commitment
7. See what works, adapt & adjust as needed
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
63. How ? in a VUCA world: Agility
Building an Agile workforce
Impossible to predict the future …..
• so ensure having the right people
• demonstrating agility to deal with different
scenarios or situations (a crisis, a recovery, a building
situation, a green field, a ………. )
• ready for whatever comes in the future
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
64. How ? VUCA Competencies
• Vision & envisioning, looking forward, big-picture view
• Curiosity & Courage
• Action driven
• Situational awareness, context scanning
• Discernment, distinguishing essential & marginal
• Resilience, willing & capable to adapt to turbulence
• Learning, continuously, life long
‒ learning agility by experience & experimentation & apply in new
‒ Learning speed, mastering new multiple skills very rapidly
‒ Questioning, critical thinking, respect & tolerance
• Cooperating, interacting
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
65. How ? Continuous, up-to-date insight
Workforce Intelligence
• understanding workforce dynamics
• real time monitoring for progressive
insight
• rolling forecast = adjusting, fine tuning
on basis of latest insight
Moving from transactional, short term driven operations, to data driven, pro-
active, more strategic execution of HR & Business strategy
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
66. How ? Successful organizations agile
For truly agile businesses their business
journey doesn’t stop
Business development, anticipating &
adjusting to changing circumstances is
perpetual & part of their being
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
67. How ? Adjusting in VUCA world
Staying realistic & valid
Preventing chaos & more uncertainty & ensure trust in WFP by:
• Investing in optimizing data (monitoring) eco-system
• Real time (self) monitoring options
• Updating options as new data become available
• Periodically review methodology & assumptions
• Mechanisms for regular re-evaluation & adjustment
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
68. How ? Adjusting in VUCA world
Staying realistic & valid by
• Mechanisms for regular stakeholder feedback
• Having a continuous dialogue between key players
‒ Expectations regarding future still valid?
‒ Expectations about future opportunities still valid?
‒ Other assumptions underlying planning still valid?
‒ If not, what to do?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
69. How ? Checking in VUCA world
Staying realistic & valid by Data monitoring
& insight especially in areas of uncertainty
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
70. How ? VUCA (from recruiting point of view)
• Data Driven Hiring, fact based, to better
manage expectations
• Transparency, ensuring trustworthy candidate
experience
• Specialism to understand market challenges &
act pro-actively, cost effective
• Internet is the most up-to-date data base /
talent pool
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
71. How ? Adjust forecasts & plans
• WFP in modern context is ongoing process
• WFP collaborative, learning journey
• Progressing insights to adjust regularly and
align activities at periodic frequencies
• Sharing insights & adjustments are essential
for trust in and commitment for WFP process
AND
• Timely adjustments improve business results!
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
72. Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
74. Time for a short break
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
75. How ? WFP Model ingredients
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication & Training
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
76. How ? Methods characteristics
• Keep WFP as simple as possible
• Ensure corporate wide consistency
• Ensure alignment to business planning
• Prevent WFP becoming “black box” exercise
• Analysis not becoming “analysis paralysis”
• Understanding & trust in WFP methods
crucial for management buy-in
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
77. How ? Methods examples
• Basic
Basic Gap Analysis, (demand vs supply) + Plan to address gap
• Workforce analytics
Mining current & historical HR data
Analyzing relationship HR & Business Data
• Forecasting & scenario modelling
Using internal & external data, input for
Multiple what-if scenario’s for strategic decision making
• Segmentation
Identifying & analyzing specific segments to craft strategies for critical segments
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
78. How ? Methods examples
• Workforce approach:
Analyze current number & type of jobs + project headcount needed to fill at a
specific moment in the future
• Workload approach:
Analyze & anticipate amount & type of work at moment in future, + project
number people & skills needed to do that
• Competency approach:
Identify organization’s & functional core competencies. This assumes workforce &
workload are already to be defined.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
79. How ? Methods examples
Quantitative approach
Statistical & mathematical methods to determine the
future workforce requirements like:
• Indexation - forecasts determined in relation to 1 or more fixed organisational indices
• Trend analysis - forecasts based on the study of past workforce development
• Ratio Analysis – determining future demand based on ratios between assumed casual
factors & needed number of workers
Complex & rather expensive for smaller organisations
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
80. How ? Methods examples
Qualitative approach
(Self) inquiry methods to determine future workforce
requirements like:
• Delphi Technique - problem solving & expert consultation methods
• Managerial judgement - managers (self) assessment of WF requirements, using HR
data on retirements, promotions, new technologies etc.
• Nominal Group Technique - using group processes to compare predictions on
staffing needs for the future
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
81. How ? Methods - Scenarios
Decisions today have effect in future, but
in what sort of world is uncertain?
• Some areas relatively easy to understand &
model, such as demographics
• Many uncertainties, harder to forecast areas,
indeterminables, like impact of tech, fads & fashions, resulting in
assumptions
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
82. How ?Scenarios
Method for dealing with rapid change,
uncertainty & inherent unpredictability
Exploring how future might look like
given assumptions, trends, policies & legislation & other
information that affects future developments
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
83. How ?Scenarios
Describe imaginative, possible, plausible,
probable & challenging ways the future
might unfold
• Scenarios not predictions of uncertain future
• Starting from perspective of present situation
• Images of possible futures
• Guidance for action to be considered, developed &
implemented as circumstances change
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
84. How ?Scenarios
• Direction for uncertain future
• Awareness about possible changes, both
opportunities & threats
• Identify signals, trends & `Drivers of Change`
• Identify probable elements & critical uncertain
aspects
• “what if” is pivotal question
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
86. How ?Scenario characteristics
• Provocative & challenging futures
• Sufficiently detailed to paint rich picture of
future (while very unlikely, could plausibly happen)
• Qualitative & explorative
• Easy to understand, but not simplistic
• Outcomes make sense to stakeholders
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
87. How ?Scenarios
Remember: WFP cooperative & collaborative process
Most of value of scenario’s comes from
•opportunity for discussing
future, potential opportunities & challenges.
Collaboratively discussing future development options creates a shared
understanding & helps to focus. Involvement in developing insight makes
execution/implementation less complex
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
88. How ?Scenarios what if ….
Scenario’s, which 3 most likely to happen?
What if …. ( + alternatives to challenge current paradigms)
• Business as usual
• Business growth / decline rate of …..
• Business model change
• Business new business / new markets
• Business stepping out markets
• Business technology impact + / - / =
• Economy, growing, stagnant, shrinking etc.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
89. How ?Scenarios what if …..
What if …. ( + alternatives to challenge current paradigms)
• Workforce remains unchanged?
• Workforce declines with ….. %
• Workforce grows with …. %
• Workforce transforms (exit+new) about …. %
• Workforce diversity has to change to …. %
• Workforce will be partly outsourced?
• Etc.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
90. How ?Scenarios Process
• Explore trends & what if …. options
• Analyse & discuss findings
• Produce 7-9 initial mini-scenarios
• Reduce to 2-3 scenarios
• Draft “final” scenarios
• Identify WFP implications
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
93. How ?Scenarios Example
From the perspective of the present:
• Scenario 1 Low / Moderate Change
• Scenario 2 High but Evolutionary Change
• Scenario 3 High & Accelerated Change
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
94. How ?Scenarios Example
From the perspective of the best, desirable :
• Scenario 1 Best case
• Scenario 2 Worst case
• Scenario 3 Most likely case
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
95. How ? Methods Keep it Simple
Simplification of WFP
• Covering total workforce is very complex &
time consuming
• Setting priorities, focus on important roles
• Starting with identifying for future business
critical jobs/roles
• Getting in-depth understanding of critical, key
& core roles across organisation
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
96. How ? Workforce Segmentation
Examples segment attrition business risk:
• highly technical & specialized
• unique with rare or company specific skills
• long lead time to develop skills / expertise
• excellent strategic client relationships
• roles making largest contribution to business
• corporate culture, DNA key players
• tight labour market professions (scarcity)
How calculate cost of turnover for various roles?
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
97. How ? Workforce Segmentation
Break down workforce into roles / jobs
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Key roles
Specialists
Do roles Core roles
Critical roles
Impact on business value
Difficultytoreplaceroles
98. How ? Segmentation challenge
Identify, understand & rate
• characteristics of roles, their variation
• core competencies & unique skills
• respective importance to successful business
execution, business impact
• attrition risk & replacement effort
Reflecting this in HR strategies, policies & practice!!
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
99. How ? Segmentation Contingent staff
Global trend: Building Agile workforce
permanent & contingent workers
growing part Contingent Workforce (CoW)
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
100. How ? Segmentation Contingent staff
Contingent Workforce (CoW) individual
workers not being “regular”, full-time employees
• Part-time
• Temporary
• Seasonal workers
• Freelancers
• Independent consultants & contractors
• Interns
• Etc.
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
101. How ? Contingent Workforce
CoW growing importance
• Changing workforce, changing career paths
• Demand for part-time arrangements
• Life-time employment disappearing
• Shorter business cycles
• Structural scarcity on STEM labour market
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
102. How ? Contingent Workforce
CoW consequences / impact
• Rapidly changing makeup of workforce & how
companies trying to fill positions / roles
• Hiring temporary, project contractors
• Increasingly highly skilled IT (STEM) contractors
• Contingent workers blending with permanent staff
• Growing & multifaceted “light”-industrial worker class
• Outsourcing of CoW supply to external specialists
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
103. How ? Total Workforce
Total workforce strategy challenge (1)
Determining right (flex) mix of
• Permanent workforce (Employees)
• Contingent workforce (CoW)
!
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
104. How ? Total Workforce
Total workforce strategy challenge (2)
How fit traditional full-timers in more
flexible workforce strategies?
Developing innovative staffing models with more creative,
flexible, but sustainable work arrangements
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
105. How ? Total Workforce
Total workforce strategy challenge (3)
Making WFP NOT too complex
• Going step-by-step
• First things first
• Creating insight & strategic, total CoW overview
NB. segmentation was to make WFP simpler!
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
106. How ? Total Workforce
Mindset:
CoW = strategic choice
CoW no longer cheap / easy / flexible alternative
for permanent workers, added in ad-hoc fashion
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
107. How ? Total Workforce
Total (integrated) Workforce strategy
• clear worker segments
• in depth insight to determine appropriate
balance for permanent & contingent staff
• developing a appropriate company culture for
both permanent & contingency staff (A-B citizens)
• supporting integrated policies, processes &
programs for an agile workforce
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
108. How ? Segmentation challenge
From Recruitment point of view
• understanding unique dynamics, motivations
& needs of target segments
• dedicated/ targeted approaches in job branding,
employer branding, sourcing, talent pooling, assessment, onboarding
• recruitment personas development
• updating & developing EoC ambitions & EVP
• pro-active targeted sourcing
Reflecting in Recruiting strategies, policies & practice!!
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
109. How ? WFP Model ingredients
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication & Training
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
110. How ? WFP Technology & Systems
Data eco-system:
• Data mining
• Data consolidation
• Data modelling
• Data collection / questionnaires / surveys
• Data dashboard
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
111. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Self-serve
Analysis
Predictive
Analysis
Monitoring
Dashboards
Reporting
Level 1:
Reactive
Level 2:
Standardized
Level 3:
Focused
Level 4:
Strategic
Data
Stakeholders
Maturity
Data & Analytic
Capabilities
Core HRMS
Data
Performance
Data
Comp & Ben All Talent
Data
Business DataRecruiting
Data
ExecutivesHR Business Managers People Mngrs
ICT Data
Specialists
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Fin & Bus.
Analysts
How ? WFP Data eco-system
112. How ? WFP Technology & Systems
Complexities of the many variables prevent
development of “the perfect” technology
• Starting with spreadsheets
• HR management systems offering options
• Special HR analytics solutions
• Integrated corporate solutions
• Big Data offering more advanced technologies
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
113. How ? WFP Technology & Systems
• Increasing attention for HRtech
• Cloud computing & data base alignement
• Big Data offering more advanced technologies
• More options to quick analyse different
scenario´s
• Automate process easily store data &
retrieved, thereby simplifying the process
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
114. How ? WFP Model ingredients
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication &
Training
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
115. How ? WFP Competent Resources
WFP execution requires blend of
competencies, skills & experience
Training before joining the process
Additional consulting, guiding, support should be availble
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
116. How ? WFP Competencies
• Highly numerical and analytical
• Understanding of analytical methods & models
• Vision & Helicopter view
• Business acumen
• Planning & organising
• Pragmatic, result driven
• Adaptability
• Organisational & cultural sensitivity
• Collaborative, team oriented
• Communication verbally & in writing
• Listening, advising & influencing
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
117. How ? WFP Training
Training for
• Stakeholders, basic & advanced
• Professionals on WFP special skills
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
118. Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
121. How ? WFP Communication
To ensure cooperation & collaboration
• Share purpose of workforce planning
• Determine & share the timeframe
• Inform about available resources
• Inform about roles & responsibilities
• Share & explain results & WFP progress
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
122. How ? WFP Communication
WFP Telling a story
• Don’t get lost in data
• Match data with an engaging narrative
• Focus, business impact & major outcomes
• Offer clear, concise management summary
• Ensuring stakeholders understand and can
reproduce it, tell WFP story themselves
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
123. How ? WFP Resources
• Studies & public data sources
• Internet
• Market research services providers
• In-house HR system(s)
• Marketing department
• Business Partners & Suppliers
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
124. How ? WFP Resources
Software tools
• Excel
• HR-management systems
• (HR) analytics solutions
• WFP applications
• Planning & scheduling applications
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
125. How ? WFP Resources
Software tools examples
• Workforceinsight / anaplan
• Oracle (Hyperion)
• SAP SuccessFactors Workforce Planning
• Optforce
• Visier
• Vemo-workforce
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
126. How ? WFP Resources
Books, publications
• WFP Strategic Planning for HR, First Edition
by Julie Bulmash, Nita Chhinzer, Elizabeth Speers
• Lean but Agile: Rethink Workforce Planning and Gain a True
Competitive Edge by William J. Rothwell, Jim Graber, Neil McCormick
• Positioned: Strategic Workforce Planning That Gets the Right
Person in the Right Job by Dan L. Ward, Rob Tripp, Bill Maki
• A lot Australian, Canadian, US & UK public services pdf. Guides
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
127. How ? WFP Resources
Webinars, youtube
• The Executive's Guide to Strategic Workforce Planning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7nEM1TShFw
• Talent Gap Analysis - Workforce Planning's Reality Check
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ7XQ4xkFGg
• Hub 2014 Operations Track: Strategic Workforce Planning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ev1Xwgqhy4
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
128. How ? WFP Resources
Professional Networks
• Society of Workforce Planning Professionals (SWPP)
• Linkedin groups like https://www.linkedin.com/grps/Workforce-
Planning-Tools-4245718/about?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
129. Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
130. 1. What WFP ?
Pathway to shape the workforce,
ensuring that it will be quantitatively
& qualitatively as ready as possible
for the (near) future
to deliver the defined business objectives for sustainable success
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
131. 1. What WFP ?
• business process / HR tool
• Identification, analysis, forecasting &
planning
• workforce requirements
• (near) future size, type & quality
• to execute business strategy & achieve
defined objectives
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
132. 2. Why WFP ?
To be Ready for future
• Know yourself
• Where you are going to
• What it needs to get there in time
Adapt before having to change!!
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
133. 3. When WFP ?
In a dynamic, VUCA world, WFP is
continuous, consistent & agile process
with build-in mechanisms ensuring being up-to-date
getting best possible business alignment and
stakeholder trust & engagement
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
134. 3. When WFP ?
Scope of WFP:
Build & maintain a longer term context
within both long- & short term workforce
decisions can be made as optimal as possible
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
135. 4. WFP Who ?
WFP is done in cooperation / partnership
between HR, business leadership & key
professionals at all levels
Collaborative effort with clarity about roles &
contribution to be delivered across the organisation
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
136. 5. How WFP ?
• 7-GA steps
• Evolving & learning journey
• Data driven
• Using methods, systems & tools
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
138. How ?A Process
1. Analyse present workforce configuration &
projected future business workforce needs
2. Asses implications, quantitative & qualitative
3. Anticipate changes, gaps, risks & challenges by
developing strategies, solutions & plans
4. Act & implement plans, provide resources
5. Audit & monitor progress
6. Adapt & Adjust plan & process/model (progression insight)
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
139. Recap:
• WFP is a business process, not exclusive HR!
• Prevent process is too complex, too time consuming
• Strategic WFP not overnight, but rather step by step
• Cooperative & collaborative process
• Enterprise wide imbedded (accountability)
• Data Driven
• Learning (by doing) & improving is key
• Projections are not exact future predictions!
• Ongoing, work-in-progress (responsive not reactive)
• Tell WFP story to be remembered by stakeholders
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
140. Questions before we finish
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
141. WFP success
Start now
• make team & stakeholders capable & get buy-in
• to develop a workforce
• as ready as possible
• for achieving future business objectives!
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl