2. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
April 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 20th to 25th April 2012 inclusive.
Economic Recovery Index 2
3. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The consumer outlook fell back in April, after improving in March:
Mar’12: 0% Apr’12: 0%
Mar’12: 4% Apr’12: 3%
Mar’12: 43% Apr’12: 49% Mar’12: 24% Apr’12: 21%
Mar’12: 29% Apr’12: 27%
Economic Recovery Index 3
4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI fell back to 19.4 in April, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
'09 '10 '11 '12 '12
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 4
5. The Stages of Recovery
Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:
ABC1 C2DE
April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
The economic
situation in Ireland is 49% 51% 45% 33% 47% 56% 55% 48% 43% 53%
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad but 27% 23% 31% 36% 32% 27% 18% 23% 31% 24%
has stabilized
The economic
situation is bad but
21% 21% 21% 24% 16% 14% 23% 26% 22% 19%
showing a few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is getting
better and showing 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is good and * * 0 1% 0 0 0 0 * 0
almost fully recovered
from the recession
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 5
6. Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41%43% 39%
48%
44% 42%
41% 43%
46% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 28% 31%
30%
34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%
26% 18%
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
Sept
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jun
Feb
June
Feb
June
Feb
July
July
July
Jan
Jan
Jan
May
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54%55%
65% 55% 53%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48%47% 47%48%48%47%49%
51%
50%
51% 52% 53%
55%54% 50% 46% 41% 44% 42%39%45%44%
44%
33%
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
Sept
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jun
Feb
June
Feb
June
Feb
July
July
July
May
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jan
Jan
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 6
7. Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
50% 47%
45%45% 41%41% 42%
41%40%
39%37%36%39%40% 39%
51% 47%
48% 48% 48%48%46%
47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34%38%38%34%33%37%
45%
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
Sept
June
June
Jun
Feb
Feb
Feb
July
July
July
May
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61%60% 61% 60%
56% 53%
56%55% 55% 55% 53%
59% 49%45%47%48% 50% 49%46%49%45%45% 50%
49%48%
52% 54% 52% 45%45% 44% 43%46%
53% 51% 50%
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr '09
Apr '11
Apr'10
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
Sept
June
June
Jun
Feb
Feb
Feb
July
July
July
May
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jan
Jan
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 7
8. Recovery Outlook 3
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession
will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
46% 35% 36%
43% 43%42% 30%
40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 24%
23%
35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%
18% 20% 11%
14%
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr '10
Apr '11
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
June
June
Feb
Feb
Feb
July
July
Oct '09
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jan
Jan
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before:
% agree strongly/slightly
22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 25%
22%
16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19%
22% 20% 17%
20% 15% 17%
13%
Nov
Aug
Nov
Aug
Nov
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr '11
Apr'10
Apr'12
Sept
Sept
June
June
Feb
Feb
Feb
July
July
Oct '09
May
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jan
Jan
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 8
9. Financial Sentiment Indicators
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: April 2009*, 2010, 2011, 2012 & March 2012
* not all statements asked in 2009
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
30%
•Debt 15% 21% 14% 18% 20%
28% 27% 29%
•Borrowing
Apr'09 Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12 Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12
Now is a good time to
Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those
main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to
need to
59% 58% 59% 64% 62% 66%
55% 60%
31% 24% 24% 28%
Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12 Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12 Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12
Source: Amárach Research, February 2012
Economic Recovery Index 9
10. Feeling Flaithulach
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
ABC1 C2DE
April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Strongly Agree 5% 8% 2% 6% 4% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5%
Slightly Agree 15% 18% 13% 15% 16% 16% 11% 17% 12% 19%
Neither/Nor 14% 15% 14% 23% 15% 9% 10% 14% 17% 11%
Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 29% 27% 29% 25% 24% 23% 30% 22%
Strongly Disagree 39% 36% 42% 28% 35% 43% 51% 39% 36% 41%
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 10
11. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2012
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
June
June
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Apr'12
Nov
Dec
July
Nov
Dec
July
Nov
Dec
Oct
Oct
Oct
Aug
Aug
Aug
Feb
Feb
Feb
Sept
Sept
Sept
May
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jun
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jul
May
May
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 11
12. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2012
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Aug
Aug
Aug
Feb
Feb
Feb
Apr'12
June
Jul
Jun
Jan
Jan
Jan
May
Mar
May
Mar
May
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Sept
Sept
Sept
July
July
June
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 12
13. Changing Moods
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2012
ABC1 C2DE
April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Happiness 55% 56% 55% 54% 55% 52% 58% 57% 54% 56%
Enjoyment 54% 53% 56% 49% 55% 49% 61% 56% 58% 51%
Stress 45% 42% 48% 51% 55% 48% 46% 30% 49% 41%
Worry 40% 37% 44% 47% 42% 39% 42% 35% 40% 40%
Anxiety 30% 26% 34% 36% 33% 30% 29% 25% 32% 28%
Boredom 27% 27% 27% 50% 31% 23% 22% 15% 26% 28%
Physical Pain 26% 27% 25% 22% 27% 19% 26% 31% 21% 29%
Sadness 18% 16% 20% 28% 18% 14% 13% 17% 17% 19%
Anger 15% 16% 14% 20% 15% 16% 16% 10% 12% 18%
12% 12% 13% 15% 19% 10% 11% 9% 12% 13%
Fear
Source: Amárach Research, April 2012
Economic Recovery Index 13
14. Ups & Downs
We have been tracking the mood of Ireland’s
consumers for three years now – from the
depth of the recession back in 2009.
Much has changed – though not everything: the
Irish people have retained a degree of zen-like
emotional stability throughout the past three
years, even as the fortunes of the economy
have fluctuated.
The modest reversal of the improving trend
since the start of 2012 is one to watch: although
we are generally more positive about the state
of the economy than we were three years ago,
we have not returned to the levels of
confidence about it all ‘ending soon’ that
prevailed not so long ago.
Economic Recovery Index 14
15. Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international clients.
Our team of 30 research & support staff have
worked with most of Ireland’s top 200
companies. Every year we survey over
100,000 people at home and abroad, as well
as running hundreds of focus groups.
Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique
field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
Amárach Research is proud to be:
16. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch