Our latest look at the spending, saving and emotional intentions of Irish consumers: with a special focus on supermarket brands.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
January 2017: Focus on Grocery Shopping

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
New Year Priorities
January is always the month we take stock
of our finances and financial priorities – so
this month we look at our results with a
focus on where people do their main grocery
shopping.
As we track our Economic Recovery Index
going into 2017 there is troubling sign of
some weakening in sentiment.
No doubt as consumers become less certain
about the wider economy it will begin to
affect their spending and saving intentions
throughout 2017 – and we’ll keep you
posted as we measure what’s really going
on in future editions.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to January 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 10th to 20th January 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was at one of the lowest points
just seven years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2017
Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for almost 18 months

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1
Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3
Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4
Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9
Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3
Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5
Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0
Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2
Jan-17 16 28 32 20 3 41.9
Our ERI has dipped below 42.0 for the first time since April 2016

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI by Main Supermarket
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
Dunnes shoppers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook
TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
The economic situation in
Ireland is getting worse
15% 12% 18% 13% 14% 16%
The economic situation is bad
but has stabilized
26% 23% 23% 36% 26% 31%
The economic situation is bad
but showing a few signs of
improvement
30% 30% 31% 34% 33% 24%
The economic situation is
getting better and showing
clear signs of improvement
19% 21% 20% 11% 18% 21%
The economic situation is
good and almost fully
recovered from the recession
3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3%

8. Consumer Impact

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of
the mood of the nation and the impact on
consumer spending, borrowing and saving
intentions.
We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the
part of the Irish people when it comes to
‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-
economic uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Jan-10 52 50 61 55
Jan-11 26 39 48 49
Jan-12 21 37 45 46
Jan-13 32 40 47 47
Jan-14 41 44 53 46
Jan-15 38 40 50 40
Jan-16 46 49 56 50
Dec-16 35 46 54 46
Jan-17 31 44 49 40
Overall optimism has fallen back strongly from its peak in April 2015

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jan-10 21 26 60 29
Jan-11 13 22 59 22
Jan-12 14 24 57 24
Jan-13 22 27 57 27
Jan-14 23 25 57 24
Jan-15 25 23 54 26
Jan-16 35 28 54 30
Dec-16 36 34 50 35
Jan-17 28 28 55 33
Last month’s spending intention indicator has fallen back to the same level a year ago

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions by Main Supermarket
Agreement with statement: ‘I am more relaxed about spending money than I was
a few months ago’
Aldi shoppers are more likely to disagree they are ‘relaxed about spending’
TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
Strongly Agree 8% 7% 10% 9% 5% 7%
Slightly Agree 20% 22% 17% 21% 23% 18%
Neither/Nor 30% 31% 33% 23% 27% 30%
Slightly Disagree 20% 20% 18% 24% 19% 23%
Strongly Disagree 19% 15% 20% 17% 24% 18%

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Price Sensitivity by Main Supermarket
Agreement with statement: ‘I always buy the lowest price products or services’
Aldi shoppers are more driven by price considerations than others
TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
Strongly Agree 22% 22% 17% 18% 28% 24%
Slightly Agree 31% 30% 28% 24% 34% 34%
Neither/Nor 22% 21% 24% 26% 20% 21%
Slightly Disagree 15% 18% 17% 17% 12% 14%
Strongly Disagree 5% 5% 9% 10% 3% 4%

14. Mood of the Nation

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress and
anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever,
but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to
January 2017.

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017
Source: Amárach Research, January 2017
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017
Source: Amárach Research, January 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: January 2017
TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
Happiness 46% 41% 49% 44% 47% 52%
Enjoyment 27% 28% 23% 18% 32% 28%
Stress 21% 18% 28% 14% 21% 24%
Worry 29% 32% 24% 22% 33% 28%
Anxiety 19% 20% 18% 15% 21% 21%
Physical Pain 33% 34% 30% 30% 38% 32%
Boredom 14% 12% 17% 7% 16% 15%
Sadness 46% 40% 49% 50% 47% 49%
Anger 10% 11% 8% 4% 15% 8%
Loneliness 23% 27% 22% 16% 26% 21%
Fear 15% 15% 12% 9% 16% 18%
None of the above 9% 14% 7% 13% 7% 6%
Lidl shoppers are the happiest citizens overall

19. Amárach Outlook

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
The Year Ahead
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
Finally, we’d like to wish you a Happy New
Year from all of us in Amárach.
For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
and join more than two dozen other
organisations using their own
customised planning dashboard.
http://getplanr.com/planr-data

22. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/