The document summarizes the results of Amárach Research's November 2009 Economic Recovery Index survey. The Index fell slightly from its October peak but remained above its July low. Around half of respondents felt the economic situation had stabilized or was improving, up from 14% in April. While outlook indicators like optimism were down slightly from previous months, over 40% agreed the worst of the recession would be over within 12 months. The survey also tracked indicators like spending habits, debt priorities, and views on borrowing and home buying.

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2009 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs All recessions end in recovery – so will
this one
The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession
is over and recovery has started?
Amárach Research has developed the
Economic Recovery Index to help us
track the economic cycle more closely
This report summarises the results for
April to November 2009
The November fieldwork was conducted
on 9th-18th November inclusive
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them
to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
As in recent months, roughly equal proportions feel the economic situation
is getting worse as feel it has stabilised or is improving
April 0% November 0%
April 1% November 1%
April 77% November 51%
51%
April 8% November 21%
21%
April 14%
14% November 27%
27%
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

5. Economic Recovery Index
The Recovery Index fell back slightly in November from October’s peak,
though remained above the most recent low in July
25
20
15
10
5
0
April May June July August September October November
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession
in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
43% 48% 41%
41% 44% 42% 46%
34%
April May June July August September October November
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
65% 60% 62%
59% 58% 55% 51%
57%
April May June July August September October November
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly
51% 45%
48% 48% 47% 48% 48% 46%
April May June July August September October November
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more
than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 52%
April May June July August September October November
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

8. 8
Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey
Percent of adults who agree strongly/slightly with each statement:
October and November 2009
News from other I am more relaxed about Now is a good time to
countries suggests the spending money than I buy a house for those
recession will end soon was a few months ago who want to
43% 43% 16% 16%
62% 62%
October November October November October November
I am saving a lot more I would be happy to Paying off debts is my
than before because of borrow money from a main financial priority
the recession bank if I need to
62%
32% 33%
29% 28% 61%
October November October November October November
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

9. 9
Amárach Contact Details
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index