1. AMIR BILAL
Corn
Asia’s Corn Demand Seen Gaining as U.S.
Drought Curbs Shipments
On July 13, 2012
Increased demand for corn imports by Asian nations including China is set to strain global supplies just
as drought in the U.S. reduces shipments from the world’s largest grower, according to Rabobank
International.
China may import at least 8 million tons in 2012-2013 from about 5 million tons in 2011-2012,
Jean Yves Chow, senior industry analyst, said in an interview yesterday. Japan may import 16
million tons, up from 15.5 million tons, he said.
Corn rallied to the highest level since September this week as hot weather across the Midwest
hurt yields, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture to cut its projection for this year’s
harvest by 12 percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group
AG in boosting price forecasts.
“We will see less export from the U.S., and it comes to a question where supplies will be from
amid strong demand from Asia,” Chow said. “China, which used to export corn to South Korea,
will be importing almost as much as South Korea.”
December-delivery corn rallied to $7.48 a bushel on July 11, the highest level since Sept. 13. The
most-active contract, which traded at $7.3775 at 11:11 a.m. in Bangkok, is poised for a fourth
weekly gain as U.S. crop conditions deteriorated.
Chow’s forecast for China’s corn imports is more bullish than that from the USDA, which
projects shipments to the country at 5 million tons in 2012-2013, unchanged from last year.
South Korea may import 8 million tons of corn in 2012-2013, while Japan may take 15.5 million
tons, according to the USDA.
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Commercial Farms
China’s increased demand for corn is driven by the rising need for feed grain as the country’s
backyard farms are replaced by commercial farms that use about 50 percent to 55 percent of corn
in their feed formula, Chow said.
China will harvest a record 197.5 million tons of corn this year from 191.75 million tons in
2011, according to the Food & Agriculture Organization. Still, even with the rising output,
imports of cereals will increase, the Rome-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed
report yesterday. China’s corn imports will climb 1 million tons to 6 million tons, it said.
World grain output will be lower than expected a month ago as the worsening conditions in the
U.S. hurt the outlook for the corn harvest, the FAO said on July 5. Farmers across the world will
harvest 2.4 billion tons of all grains this year, less than the amount forecast on June 7, the FAO
said.
‘Before the Drought’
“Global supply-demand was tight even before the drought,” said Chow, who joined Rabobank in
2007 and covers grains, animal-protein and food-processing markets. “We started the year with a
low inventory base.”
The USDA reduced its outlook for the U.S. corn harvest to 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million
metric tons) this year, from a June prediction of 14.79 billion bushels. The forecast for global
output was cut to 905.2 million tons, from 949.9 million tons last month, the USDA said. U.S.
exports may total 40.6 million tons in 2012-2013, unchanged from 2011-2012.
China’s corn imports may total 20 million tons by 2015, according to a forecast from Olam
International Ltd. (OLAM), the Singapore-based commodity supplier, last October. Cofco Agri-
Trading & Logistics Co., a unit of China’s biggest grain trader, said the same month that
shipments by 2020 may be as much as 20 million tons.
Crop Prices Rally as Expanding U.S.
Drought Cuts Harvest Outlook
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Corn and soybeans rose for the first time in three days as an expanding drought in the U.S.
Midwest increased the chances that yield losses will exceed government forecasts. Wheat also
rallied.
Most of the Midwest will get less than 20 percent of normal rain in the next five days, and
temperatures will rise above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in the four days
ending July 18, according to T-storm Weather LLC. As much as 51 percent of the region
got less than 25 percent of average rain in the past 14 days. The ratings of the corn and
soybean crops are the lowest since 1988, government data show.
“The warmer temperatures will increase yield losses for corn and raise the risks for soybeans,”
Ron Mortensen, the president of Advantage Ag Strategies Ltd. in Fort Dodge, Iowa, said in a
telephone interview. “Soil moisture is empty, and you can see the crops declining daily. Crops
will get smaller without a dramatic increase in rain in the next two weeks.”
Corn futures for December delivery advanced 4 percent to close at $7.3225 a bushel at 2 p.m. on
the Chicago Board of Trade. The price has jumped 44 percent since June 15, reaching $7.48
yesterday, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 13.
Soybean futures for November delivery rose 0.4 percent to $15.29 a bushel. Yesterday, the
oilseed reached $15.75, the highest since July 2008.
Wheat futures for September delivery gained 2.5 percent to $8.4675 a bushel, the third gain this
week. Earlier, the price reached $8.58, the highest since April 2011.
Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its outlook for domestic corn output by 12
percent, a month after predicting a record harvest. The U.S. soybean crop will be the smallest in
four years, and global wheat production will be 1 percent less than forecast in June, the agency
said.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8
billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest at $14.4 billion, behind hay.
Wide-reaching drought stifles US corn yield
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American farmer Steve Niedbalski shows his drought
and heat stricken corn in Illinois. Farmers in parts of
the Midwest are dealing with the worst drought in
nearly 25 years. Seth Perlman / AP
The United States, reeling from a harsh Midwest drought, on Wednesday slashed its forecast for
the 2012-2013 corn crop, saying yields will be even worse than expected a month ago.
It's unclear if major importers such as China will feel the impact through higher prices or tighter
supplies of corn, soybeans and other US grains given expectations of reduced demand.
China is the No 2 importer, after Japan, of US corn and the No 1 importer of US soybeans.
The US Department of Agriculture reported that American farmers will harvest 12.97 billion
bushels (329.5 million metric tons), down 12 percent from the department's prediction in June of
14.79 billion bushels.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a corn yield of 13.53 billion on average.
Inventories before the harvest in late summer and fall could be down by as much as 37 percent
from what was forecast last month, the USDA said - to 1.183 billion bushels from 1.881 billion
bushels.
The worst US drought since 1988 stretches from Ohio to California. Though not as severe a dry
spell as the one that ravaged the Southwest in 2011, this year's drought affects more farmland
and eclipsed hopes of a record crop due to the mild, early planting season.
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China is forecast to import 5 million tons from the US, the world's biggest corn grower and
exporter, in the marketing year that begins Sept 1, the USDA said. That's down 2 million tons
from previous estimates.
Prices of US corn futures jumped in early trading on Wednesday's grim news, but settled lower
than the previous day as traders had already factored in the drought's impact. The price of corn
for July delivery fell by 10 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $7.50 per bushel on the Chicago Board of
Trade. Wednesday's settlement price for December-delivery corn was $7.04 per bushel, down 13
cents, or 1.9 percent.
Prices had rallied in the past week as Midwestern US states, known as the Corn Belt, were hit by
a heat wave.
As of July 8, about 40 percent of US corn, the world's biggest supply, was in good or excellent
condition, the department said. That's down from 48 percent a week earlier and from 77 percent
on May 18.
Also Wednesday, the USDA declared over 1,000 counties in 26 states, mostly in the Midwest
and Southwest, natural-disaster areas due to the drought and wildfires. The declaration makes
farmers and ranchers in those counties eligible for low-interest government loans to get through
the crises.
In Indiana, one of the disaster-area states, exports of corn and soybeans are "likely to be greatly
reduced," Purdue University agricultural economics professor Chris Hurt told China Daily.
In Minnesota, which instead of drought has benefited from ample rainfall this spring and
summer, state Agriculture Department market research director Su Ye said "the supply and price
of our agricultural exports to China will be stable".
China is the single biggest market for Minnesota's farm exports, she said.
Iowa, one of the biggest corn and soybean-producing states and not on the USDA disaster-
declaration list, is still assessing potential price effects on its exports.
"It's too early to tell. China is a key trading partner for Iowa farmers and all US agriculture and
farmers are committed to continue to meeting the needs of our trading partners in China," said
Dustin Van de Hoef, a spokesman for Iowa's Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship.
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"China already buys a significant amount of soybeans and other ag products from South
American countries and I would expect that to continue," he said.
Reuters) - Little relief from the near relentless drought plaguing corn and soybeans in the U.S.
Midwest was indicated by fresh weather forecast maps on Thursday, with only minor amounts of
rain expected in some areas over the next week to 10 days, an agricultural meteorologist said.
"There's not much change in the forecast. Some light rains are expected in the southeast Midwest
into the weekend and some showers in the eastern Dakotas," said John Dee, meteorologist with
Global Weather Monitoring.
Rainfall amounts from 0.30 to 0.80 inch were expected in the southeastern Midwest and in the
Dakotas, but virtually no rain was likely elsewhere, he said.
High temperatures for the next week were forecast to hover in the upper 80s to low 90s degrees
Fahrenheit, he said.
"Overall it's not as threatening as last week, but still no organized rain event so it's still not a
great forecast," Dee said.
There was a chance of rainfall later next week. "For the second half of next week there could be
some rainfall of 0.30 to 0.80 inch with about 75 to 80 percent coverage of the Midwest," Dee
forecast.
The updated midday run of the U.S. weather model was drier than the previous one for the next
few days, stretching from northern Missouri into northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
The updated forecast removed about 0.25 inch of rain over the period from its previous run, said
Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.
"It shows a little bit of rain, but not to the extent that the model showed this morning, which
would trend toward the European model. The European model has been quite dry in those
northwest areas," Keeney said.
Forecasters said the U.S. model has been less accurate than the European model in recent weeks.
Drought and heat in the U.S. led the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Wednesday to
slash its corn production forecast to 12.970 billion bushels from its previous outlook for 14.790
billion and below the record crop of 13.1 billion bushels produced in 2009.
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USDA on Monday dropped its estimate for U.S. corn good-to-excellent condition rating to 40
percent from the previous 48 percent. Traders expected a further decline in conditions in the
USDA weekly crop progress report to be released this coming Monday.
The agency pegged U.S. soybean conditions at 40 percent good-to-excellent, down from 45
percent the previous week, and in its July crop report pegged 2012 U.S. soybean production at
3.050 billion bushels, down from the previous forecast for 3.205 billion.
The government will update its U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts in its next report
which will be released on August 10.
Drought leads to declaration of natural
disaster in 26 US states
Decision means farmers who have lost crops in more than 1,000 counties are eligible for
assistance from government
A tractor ploughs a corn field near Hondo, Texas. Natural disaster has been declared in many areas
across the southern United States. Photograph: Eric Gay/AP
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America declared a natural disaster in more than 1,000 drought-stricken counties in 26 states on
Thursday.
It was the largest declaration of a national disaster and was intended to speed relief to about a
third of the country's farmers and ranchers who are suffering in drought conditions.
The declaration from the US department of agriculture includes most of the south-west, which
has been scorched by wildfires, parts of the midwestern corn belt, and the south-east.
It was intended to free up funds for farmers whose crops have withered in extreme heatwave
conditions linked by scientists to climate change.
According to the US drought monitor, 56% of the country is experiencing drought conditions –
the most expansive drought in more than a decade.
The agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, said the funds were intended to help farmers and
ranchers across the country who have lost crops to extreme heat or wildfires.
The declaration will make affected ranchers and farmers eligible for low-interest loans and speed
processing of disaster claims.
"Agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation's economy," Vilsack said. "We need to be
cognisant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have severely impacted on farmers
around the country."
The declaration covers counties in California, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico,
Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri,
Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida,
Delaware and Hawaii. It does not include Iowa, the country's biggest corn producer.
The first six months of this year were the warmest on record, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration said. Twenty-eight states east of the Rockies set temperature
records.
Those record-breaking temperatures deepened drought conditions across much of the American
west, triggering an early and violent season of wildfires in Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona and
New Mexico.
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The heat also destroyed expectations of a bumper corn crop. American farmers planted more
than 96m acres of corn this year, the most in 75 years.
The early spring got the crop off to a good start but , after June's extreme heat, only 40% of the
crop was in good condition, according to USDA figures.
From the midwest to the mid-Atlantic, meanwhile, there were triple digit temperatures, breaking
hundreds of heat records. On Thursday, St Louis confirmed 18 deaths due to extreme heat
conditions.
"The recent heat and dryness is catching up with us on a national scale," Michael Hayes, director
of the national drought mitigation centre said in a statement.
Half of America in Drought Crisis
On July 12, 2012.
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The Department of Agriculture Drought Map
The Department of Agriculture has declared that 1,000 counties in 26 states are natural disaster
areas because of drought conditions. It is the largest natural disaster in American history,
dwarfing even the famous Dustbowl of the 1930s.
By making this declaration, the DoA has made it possible for farmers and ranchers to access
federal assistance, including low-interest emergency loans for things like animal feed, loan and
mortgage payments and buying seeds for the next planting season.
Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said on Wednesday, “Agriculture remains a bright spot in
our nation’s economy. We need to be cognizant of the fact that drought and weather conditions
have severely impacted farmers around the country.”
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We have seen the impact of this drought in the wildfires that have ravaged the western mountain
states. According to the U. S. Drought Monitor, 56% of America is in drought conditions and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January through June of 2012 was “the
warmest first half of any year on record in the contiguous United States.” The average
temperature was 52.9° Fahrenheit, 4.5° above the normal average. Record temperatures were set
in 28 states east of the Rockies during that six months. Just in June, more than 170 temperature
records were broken or tied, with temperatures hitting 118° in Norton, Kansas, on June 28, and
115° in Red Willow, Nebraska, on June 26. The last time temperatures in Nebraska were that
high was 1932, the year of the first massive dust storms that presaged the Dust Bowl crisis of
later in the decade.
It’s bad enough the United States is deep in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the
Great Depression. We really don’t need a repeat of the second major crisis of the 1930s.
America burning: Drought devastating 26
states is the largest natural disaster in U.S.
history
Severe drought conditions plaguing more than half of the United States have
developed into the largest natural disaster in the country’s history.
The United States Department of Agriculture declared natural disasters for 26
states and more than 1,000 counties because of the extreme drought that has
destroyed crops in farms throughout the nation.
The USDA’s designation provides federal financial help for farmers during the
troubling time.
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Devastation: Severe drought conditions plaguing more than half of the United States has created
the largest natural disaster in the country¿s history
The declaration come as the worst drought in a quarter century tightened its grip
on Midwestern states over the past week.
Sweltering temperatures and scant rainfall punished corn and soybean crops
across the region, a report from climate experts said on Thursday.
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Nearly two-thirds of the nine-state Midwest region was in some stage of drought
in the week ended July 10, up from just over 50 per cent a week earlier,
according to the Drought Monitor, a weekly report on drought throughout the
country compiled by U.S. climate experts.
A third of the region was in severe to exceptional drought, up from about a
quarter of the region a week earlier, it said.
Decision: The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared natural disasters for 26 states and more
than 1,000 counties because the extreme drought has destroyed crops in farms throughout the
nation
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Aid: The USDA¿s designation provides federal financial help for farmers dealing with destroyed
crops
'The most anomalous conditions covered the lower Ohio Valley, southern Great
Lakes, and middle Mississippi Valley, where daily highs averaged 10 to 13
degrees above normal. Additionally, these areas received scant rainfall if any,'
said Rich Tinker of the Climate Prediction Center.
'The worst conditions (D3 to D4) were assessed along and near the lower Ohio
River and in northeastern Indiana, where rainfall was 7 to 11 inches below
normal for the last 3 months,' he said, referring to the top two categories of
drought, extreme and exceptional.
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The deepening drought has dragged the yield potential of the developing
soybean crop and the pollinating corn crop, which is in a growth stage when its
water needs are highest.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed production
forecasts for both crops due to the drought, joining scores of private forecasts
that have sent grain prices to near-record highs.
Damage: Sweltering temperatures and scant rainfall punished corn and soybean crops across the
Midwestern region like this corn plant in an Iowa farm
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Suffering: The deepening drought has dragged the yield potential of the developing soybean crop
and the pollinating corn crop, which is in a growth stage when its water needs are highest
The whole of Iowa was classified as abnormally dry as of July 10 and 12.7 per
cent of the top corn and soybean producing state was in severe drought, up from
0.8 percent the prior week.
Harder-hit Illinois, the No. 2 corn and soy state, was 66.28 per cent under severe
drought or worse, up from 40 per cent the previous week.
Severe to exceptional drought covered 80.15 per cent of Indiana, versus 68.84
per cent the prior week.
Conditions in Missouri also deteriorated, with 82.54 per cent of the state in
severe drought or worse, compared with 78.83 percent the week before.
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Rain was expected to move across the Midwest over the next 10 days, including
parched southeastern areas, but coverage may be spotty, forecasters said on
Thursday.
Heat wave widens Iowa drought
All of Iowa now covered by drought or abnormally dry conditions
A week of 100 degree temperatures with scant rainfall has put all of Iowa in at least “abnormally
dry,” conditions, and some part of eastern Iowa into the “severe drought category.’
A week ago the two tiers of counties east of the Missouri River were rated adequate in moisture,
and the severe drought was limited to a small sliver along the Missouri border.
The Iowa weather forecast shows a potential for rain this weekend.
The new map, issued by the U.S. Drought Monitor conducted by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, the National Weather Service and the University of Nebraska, now shows all of
western Iowa at least abnormally dry.
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Midwest drought is severe or extreme in most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana
Central Iowa from the Missouri to Minnesota borders is in moderate drought conditions to
eastern Iowa in a triangle from just north of the Quad Cities to Dubuque and west to the Cedar
Rapids area.
The new map comes a day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture warned that this year’s corn
crop will be 12 percent less than forecast in May, and that tight supplies and high prices are
likely to continue through the 2012 harvest and into next year.
Map shows about three-fourths of U.S. is in dry or drought conditions this summer
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More than half of Iowa’s soils are rated substandard for moisture by the USDA, compared to
more than 90 percent adequacy last year.
Those ratings are the result of below-average rainfall from July of last year through this June,
which totaled 27.1 inches.
That rainfall total followed four years of remarkably consistent July/June rainfall totals of 30.08
in 2011; 30.06 in 2010; 30.09 in 2009 and 30.08 in 2008.
The last similar July/June dry spell was 2005-06, with a 27.98 inches total. Iowa’s corn yield that
year was 166 bushels per acre.
The 1988 drought, considered the benchmark for modern droughts, saw a 12-month rainfall total
from July, 1987 to June of 1988 of 25.26 inches.
Another modern standard for a drought wa19l76-77, which saw a midyear, 12-month rainfall
total of 24.98 inches.
While all of Iowa now is covered by abnormal dryness or drought, the situation in Missouri,
Illinois and Indiana is even worse with significant portions of those important corn-producing
states listed as severe or extreme drought.
The western half of Nebraska is now in severe drought and parts of western Kansas are
experiencing extreme drought, according to the updated map.
The National Weather Service forecasts what it calls a “slight chance” of thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday, with temperatures returning to the mid-90s by Monday.
Forecast shows little chance of turning
around dry conditions
July 12, 2012
Chances for relief from the drought conditions plaguing much of Iowa remain slim, but National
Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Deitsch says showers and thunderstorms are possible late
tonight into tomorrow.
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“We have about a 40 to 50 percent chance going across much of the state,” Deitsch says.
“Anything that falls will most likely be rather isolated and light, however there is an isolated
chance of a severe storm which would obviously drop a little bit heavier amounts of rain.” A
slight chance for showers and storms is forecast for Saturday as well. Temperatures, meanwhile,
are expected to climb through the weekend.
“We’re looking for highs in the low to mid 90s for the weekend and then approaching the mid
90s for much of the state as we head into Monday and Tuesday,” Deitsch said. After Saturday,
chances for rain drop off significantly.
“Drought concerns are really going to ramp up here as we head into next week,” Deitsch said.
The new U.S. Drought Monitor map, released this morning, shows all of Iowa is considered at
least “abnormally dry” – while parts of eastern Iowa are placed in the “severe drought” category.
Drought deepens across St. Louis area
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ST. LOUIS • Meteorologists say the St. Louis area is now under severe drought conditions, with
few signs of rain in the forecast.
This morning, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded drought conditions across the region to severe
from moderate, meaning that chances of losing crops and pastures are growing along with the
threat of fires.
Meanwhile, meteorologists are calling for only slight chances of rain over the next week and
high temperatures reaching the mid- to high-90s.
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“I have no good news on that front,” said Jon Carney, a meteorologist with the National Weather
Service in Weldon Spring. “It looks like it’s going to be hot and dry.”
There is a 20 percent chance of rain over the next three days but Carney said any storms that
develop would be small, pop-up showers at best.
“This isn’t even going to make a dent,” he said.
While hot, the forecast doesn’t currently include more of the triple-digit heat that was blamed in
18 deaths in the area over the past couple weeks.
Carney said the St. Louis area is 9.1 degrees above the 30-year average temperature in July. The
latest summer heatwave broke several record high temperatures June 28 through July 7.
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