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Personal Broadband Observatory


4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz



              Andrea Calcagno, Observatory Chairman
              and CEO & EVP WiTech SpA




                                                 1
Agenda

• 4G Technologies
• 4G Deployment Model
• Business Case
• Conclusion
4G Technologies



Mobile WiMAX

                            Rel 1.5 802.16e-2005         Rel 2.0 802.16m
 Rel 1.0 802.16e-2005

                                 IP E2E Network
3GPP
                                                                               IMT-
  HSPA Rel-6            HSPA+ Rel-7 &Rel-8                                   Advanced

   CKT Switched Network
                                                  LTE & LTE Advanced


                                                  IP E2E Network

      2008                2009               2010            2011          2012


                                                                       OFDMA - Based
                                                     CDMA - Based
4G Technologies



                                                      2G/3G/3.5G
                                       T1,E1
        2G/3G/3.5G                                   Core Network




       Next Generation
       Access Network
                                                       All-IP Core
    Data Overlay or Replacement         Increased
                                                        Network
                                       BH Capacity


         LTE or WiMAX


Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need
4G Technologies
Deployment Model



Hotspot coverage    Home Base Station




                    National Coverage
Urban Coverage
Business Case


Operator Type: CLEC (COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER) or Green Field

Scenario: Urban Coverage
( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino , Firenze)

                                               Urban Scenario   Dense Urban Scenario

4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2)
Band: 2.6 GHz


Target Market: Consumer
Service Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP)


Devices: Handset and Tablet




Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE
Business Case – Market Analysis


Summary




                                   Roma
Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile




        Handset 70% - Tablet 30%
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast


Roma|Total Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast


Roma|Lost Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast


Roma|Net Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast


Total Net Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast


Total Revenues
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology


4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2)
Band: 2.6 GHz
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment


Base Station: eNode B                Devices
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning




                                                   MME
                                                 S-GW/P-GW




                                                 eNode B



                                                    UT
Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning




                                                          MME
                                                      S-GW/P-GW
           DA RIFARE
                                                      eNode B



                                                          UT




                                    e Node B with MW BH
                                         Urban 20%
                                      Dense Urban 10%
Business Case – Roll Out




                             MME
                           S-GW/P-GW




                           eNode B



                              UT
Business Case – EF Analysis


           Personnel
Business Case – EF Analysis


           CAPEX & OPEX
Business Case – EF Analysis


                                      Income Statement




EBITDA > 0 3rd Year
EBIT > 0 4th Year
Net Income > 0 6th Year
Business Case – EF Analysis


            Cash Flow




                              Peak Funding 74 M€
                              PBP 6.3 Years
                              NPV 18,45 M€
                              CFCF 100 M€
Business Case – Conclusion


4G Business Case – Urban Coverage – CLEC/Green Field


                           Value Added Applications

    ARPU                   Advertising Revenues
                           Broadband Devices




                           New pricing model
   Customer                More devices for User
                           Appl. Open Access
    Lifetime               Better User Experience



                           No Legacy

    OPEX                   FTTS
                           Flat Architecture




                          Economies of scale
   CAPEX                  All-IP Network
                          Spectral Effinciency
                          Virtual Network Opportunity
Backup

Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE
WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1)

As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure,
   building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex
                              undertaking, …




Business Case                               Quality Assurance           Optimization
                     Definitive Project

                                                      Services Launch
        Budget Allocation       Network Building
WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2)

… and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid
            foundation for the success of the initiative. …




Business Case       Definitive Project Quality Assurance      Optimization

                                                 Services Launch
        Budget Allocation Network Building
A Holistic, Iterative Approach is
             Needed Since the Outset
    Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative
  alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost
                                        drivers
                                      Market Analysis
                    Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services,
                     identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and
                                       forecasting Revenues



 Scenario & Sensitivity
                                                                     Technical Analysis
       Analysis                                                    Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE
Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX                                Access and Backhauling network
  & LTE Business Plan, analyzing                                     infrastructures, defining the
  the influence of parameter and                                       required bill of quantities
   boundary condition changes



                           Economic & Financial Analysis
                                  Calculating Capex & Opex and
                         evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI
WiTech TEA Family of Business Case
            Analysis Tools
Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning
     activities with thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses
                    TM




                                                     Market
                                                     Analysis




                                                                  Technical
                                       Scenario &
                   TM
                                                                  Analysis
                                       Sensitivity
                                        Analysis



        LTE                                          Economic &
                                                      Financial
                                                       Analysis
WiTech TEA Family of Business Case
         Analysis Tools


       TM



            Based on real best practices
            Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE
            technology-related market, technical, and
            economic models
            Presenting manageable Input and Output
       TM
            with meaningful correlations
            Supporting an iterative way of working by
            design through an easy-to-use, dashboard-
            styled GUI
 LTE
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market
               Analysis

Evaluating the potential market for
WiMAX & LTE services,
considering:
 – Type of territory (dense urban,
   urban, suburban/exurban, rural)
 – Type of segment (residential/soho;
   small, middle, and large
   enterprises/institutions)
 – Type of application model (fixed,
   nomadic, portable, and mobile)
 – Type of service (technical
   characteristics and pricing policies)
 – Churn impact
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical
             Analysis
Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX &
LTE Access & Backhauling network
infrastructures, considering:
 – Down-link and up-link capacity demand
   (by market segment and rollout plan)
 – Aggregated total capacity
 – Existing backbone infrastructures
 – Type of wireless backhauling
   technology (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet,
   License exempt)
 – Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User
   Terminal / User Equipment
   characterization (antenna gain, transmit
   power, diversity gain, losses, sector
   number, terminal type, MIMO)
 – Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33,
   Log-Normal with/without Shadowing,
   Free Space)
 – Compliance with standard WiMAX
   Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles
   (plus the possibility to define custom
   profiles)
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic &
        Financial Analysis


Calculating all key economic &
financial figures and evaluating
KPI in the WiMAX & LTE
initiative's Business Plan:
 – Capex & Opex (spectrum
   license, connectivity,
   backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT /
   UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC &
   CN, personnel, marketing,
   SG&A, etc.)
 – Depreciations
 – TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
 – Relevant Indicators (Gross
   Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV,
   IRR, PBP, Shareholder value,
   etc.)
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario &
        Sensitivity Analysis


Enabling the user to fine-tune
the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s
business plan, in real-time and
total privacy, and to view the
results in an animated
graphical format instantly for
all analyses:
 – Market Analysis
 – Technical Analysis
 – Economic & Financial
   Analysis

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4G (LTE) Business Case for 2.6 GHz

  • 1. Personal Broadband Observatory 4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz Andrea Calcagno, Observatory Chairman and CEO & EVP WiTech SpA 1
  • 2. Agenda • 4G Technologies • 4G Deployment Model • Business Case • Conclusion
  • 3. 4G Technologies Mobile WiMAX Rel 1.5 802.16e-2005 Rel 2.0 802.16m Rel 1.0 802.16e-2005 IP E2E Network 3GPP IMT- HSPA Rel-6 HSPA+ Rel-7 &Rel-8 Advanced CKT Switched Network LTE & LTE Advanced IP E2E Network 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 OFDMA - Based CDMA - Based
  • 4. 4G Technologies 2G/3G/3.5G T1,E1 2G/3G/3.5G Core Network Next Generation Access Network All-IP Core Data Overlay or Replacement Increased Network BH Capacity LTE or WiMAX Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need
  • 6. Deployment Model Hotspot coverage Home Base Station National Coverage Urban Coverage
  • 7. Business Case Operator Type: CLEC (COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER) or Green Field Scenario: Urban Coverage ( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino , Firenze) Urban Scenario Dense Urban Scenario 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz Target Market: Consumer Service Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP) Devices: Handset and Tablet Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE
  • 8. Business Case – Market Analysis Summary Roma
  • 9. Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile Handset 70% - Tablet 30%
  • 10. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|Total Users Forecast
  • 11. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|Lost Users Forecast
  • 12. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|Net Users Forecast
  • 13. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Total Net Users Forecast
  • 14. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Total Revenues
  • 15. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz
  • 16. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment Base Station: eNode B Devices
  • 17. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
  • 18. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
  • 19. Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT
  • 20. Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW DA RIFARE eNode B UT e Node B with MW BH Urban 20% Dense Urban 10%
  • 21. Business Case – Roll Out MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT
  • 22. Business Case – EF Analysis Personnel
  • 23. Business Case – EF Analysis CAPEX & OPEX
  • 24. Business Case – EF Analysis Income Statement EBITDA > 0 3rd Year EBIT > 0 4th Year Net Income > 0 6th Year
  • 25. Business Case – EF Analysis Cash Flow Peak Funding 74 M€ PBP 6.3 Years NPV 18,45 M€ CFCF 100 M€
  • 26. Business Case – Conclusion 4G Business Case – Urban Coverage – CLEC/Green Field Value Added Applications ARPU Advertising Revenues Broadband Devices New pricing model Customer More devices for User Appl. Open Access Lifetime Better User Experience No Legacy OPEX FTTS Flat Architecture Economies of scale CAPEX All-IP Network Spectral Effinciency Virtual Network Opportunity
  • 27. Backup Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE
  • 28. WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1) As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure, building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex undertaking, … Business Case Quality Assurance Optimization Definitive Project Services Launch Budget Allocation Network Building
  • 29. WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2) … and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid foundation for the success of the initiative. … Business Case Definitive Project Quality Assurance Optimization Services Launch Budget Allocation Network Building
  • 30. A Holistic, Iterative Approach is Needed Since the Outset Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost drivers Market Analysis Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and forecasting Revenues Scenario & Sensitivity Technical Analysis Analysis Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX Access and Backhauling network & LTE Business Plan, analyzing infrastructures, defining the the influence of parameter and required bill of quantities boundary condition changes Economic & Financial Analysis Calculating Capex & Opex and evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI
  • 31. WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning activities with thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses TM Market Analysis Technical Scenario & TM Analysis Sensitivity Analysis LTE Economic & Financial Analysis
  • 32. WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools TM Based on real best practices Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE technology-related market, technical, and economic models Presenting manageable Input and Output TM with meaningful correlations Supporting an iterative way of working by design through an easy-to-use, dashboard- styled GUI LTE
  • 33. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market Analysis Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, considering: – Type of territory (dense urban, urban, suburban/exurban, rural) – Type of segment (residential/soho; small, middle, and large enterprises/institutions) – Type of application model (fixed, nomadic, portable, and mobile) – Type of service (technical characteristics and pricing policies) – Churn impact
  • 34. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical Analysis Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access & Backhauling network infrastructures, considering: – Down-link and up-link capacity demand (by market segment and rollout plan) – Aggregated total capacity – Existing backbone infrastructures – Type of wireless backhauling technology (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, License exempt) – Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User Terminal / User Equipment characterization (antenna gain, transmit power, diversity gain, losses, sector number, terminal type, MIMO) – Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log-Normal with/without Shadowing, Free Space) – Compliance with standard WiMAX Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles (plus the possibility to define custom profiles)
  • 35. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic & Financial Analysis Calculating all key economic & financial figures and evaluating KPI in the WiMAX & LTE initiative's Business Plan: – Capex & Opex (spectrum license, connectivity, backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT / UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC & CN, personnel, marketing, SG&A, etc.) – Depreciations – TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) – Relevant Indicators (Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV, IRR, PBP, Shareholder value, etc.)
  • 36. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis Enabling the user to fine-tune the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s business plan, in real-time and total privacy, and to view the results in an animated graphical format instantly for all analyses: – Market Analysis – Technical Analysis – Economic & Financial Analysis