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Introduction to Niche Modelling
Many thanks to Robert Guralnick for various slide content
What is an ecological niche?

Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche



     The full range of
     conditions under
     which an animal
     could exist
What is an ecological niche?

Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche



     The portion of the
     fundamental niche
     that the organism
     comes to actually
     occupy due to all
     limiting factors
What is an ecological niche?

 Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche


    The portion of the
    fundamental niche that the
    organism actually occupies
    due to all limiting factors
What is it in detail?
                               Circle A represents area
                               where abiotic conditions are
                               right for a species to occur (Ga)

                               Circle B represent the area
                               where lack of competition,
                               disease, and occurrence of
                               mutualists allows populations
                               to grow.
                                     
Circle M is area within which individuals & populations are
capable of moving due to lack of dispersal barriers.
Go is occupied area, Gi is invadable area     From Soberon and Peterson
What is niche modelling?

An attempt to sample a
wide range of
ecological variables
that could describe the
presence of a point
occurrence, develop a
model that describes
the relationship, and
predict the
fundamental niche of
the organism
What is niche modelling?
Why do we use niche modelling?


                                                 Our samples of this
                                                 Montane Vole are only
                                                 directly tell us point
                                                 information about the
                                                 existance of the vole.
                                                 So we need a method
                                                 to predict the space
                                                 the vole can or could
                                                 occupy


       GBIF point data for the Montane vole and an IUCN Red List range map
Este es el mismo mapa con muchos mas puntos de donde se
               encuentra ese bicho en Europa
Summer precipitation          Winter precipitation
         Plano de condiciones ambientales




Maximum temp. summer            Average elevation
Plano de distribución potencial de la especie
Ocurrence data,
specimen-observation
data

     +
Environmental layers

     +
Modelling algorithm


     =
Distribution models
Where does the data come from?
 Presence data - species occurrences
    1. Museum collections
    2. Observation networks
    3. Species inventories (also absence)

 Ecological data
    1. Remote sensing, land cover measurements
    2. Weather stations
    3. Climate projections
    4. Habitat preference profiles

 Algorithms
    1. Handful of common methods, see class wiki
What has made it more common?

Advances in algorithmic methods




                                   Availability of worldwide environmental data




      Improvements in GIS technology
What does niche modelling provide?




Historical projections
                         Waltari et al., 2007
What does niche modelling provide?

                  Present day
                  projections
Future projections
What does niche modelling provide?




More future projections

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A brief introduction to niche modelling

  • 1. Introduction to Niche Modelling Many thanks to Robert Guralnick for various slide content
  • 2. What is an ecological niche? Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The full range of conditions under which an animal could exist
  • 3. What is an ecological niche? Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The portion of the fundamental niche that the organism comes to actually occupy due to all limiting factors
  • 4. What is an ecological niche? Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The portion of the fundamental niche that the organism actually occupies due to all limiting factors
  • 5. What is it in detail? Circle A represents area where abiotic conditions are right for a species to occur (Ga) Circle B represent the area where lack of competition, disease, and occurrence of mutualists allows populations to grow.        Circle M is area within which individuals & populations are capable of moving due to lack of dispersal barriers. Go is occupied area, Gi is invadable area From Soberon and Peterson
  • 6. What is niche modelling? An attempt to sample a wide range of ecological variables that could describe the presence of a point occurrence, develop a model that describes the relationship, and predict the fundamental niche of the organism
  • 7. What is niche modelling?
  • 8. Why do we use niche modelling? Our samples of this Montane Vole are only directly tell us point information about the existance of the vole. So we need a method to predict the space the vole can or could occupy GBIF point data for the Montane vole and an IUCN Red List range map
  • 9. Este es el mismo mapa con muchos mas puntos de donde se encuentra ese bicho en Europa
  • 10. Summer precipitation Winter precipitation Plano de condiciones ambientales Maximum temp. summer Average elevation
  • 11. Plano de distribución potencial de la especie
  • 12. Ocurrence data, specimen-observation data + Environmental layers + Modelling algorithm = Distribution models
  • 13. Where does the data come from? Presence data - species occurrences 1. Museum collections 2. Observation networks 3. Species inventories (also absence) Ecological data 1. Remote sensing, land cover measurements 2. Weather stations 3. Climate projections 4. Habitat preference profiles Algorithms 1. Handful of common methods, see class wiki
  • 14. What has made it more common? Advances in algorithmic methods                                  Availability of worldwide environmental data Improvements in GIS technology
  • 15. What does niche modelling provide? Historical projections Waltari et al., 2007
  • 16. What does niche modelling provide? Present day projections
  • 18. What does niche modelling provide? More future projections

Notes de l'éditeur

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  4. \n
  5. \n
  6. \n
  7. \n
  8. \n
  9. Niche modelling is one possible short term solution to the lack of data... lets take a look to it.\nUsing the incomplete data we already have...\n
  10. together with environmental data of the area...\n
  11. We can apply and algorithm to obtain a map of possible distribution of the specie based on the environmental where it lives.\n
  12. So at the end. Ocurrence data + environmental layers+modelling alorithms provide us distribution models.\n
  13. \n
  14. \n
  15. \n
  16. \n
  17. \n
  18. \n