This session presents the dilemmas of complexity, and introduces complexity theory models including complex adaptive systems (CAS) and Cynefin to better understand organizational contexts and respond with Innovation. This session should appeal to Agile practitioners interested in exploring complexity and applying practical techniques for improving Agile project outcomes. The session will discuss the following: 1) Introduce complexity theory and offer Cynefin as a valuable and practical tool for Scrum teams to manage changing contexts and operate Scrum as a Complex Adaptive System. 2) Explain how this enhances sense-making during an Agile project e.g. during sprint planning and user story development. 3) Explain how a team can apply different approaches for Cynefin domains e.g. Probe-Sense-Respond vs. Sense-Analyse-Respond. 4) Discuss useful Cognitive-Edge techniques e.g. safe to fail experimentation, butterfly stamping with the backlog, ritual dissent with solution design. 6) Show how Cynefin practices enhance the role of the ScrumMaster to create more effective and responsive teams. 7) Wet the appetite to start experimenting with Cynefin and build on small successes.

1. Complexity Thinking for
Scrum Teams
Anton Rossouw
Project Director (AIPM-CPPD)
Agile Management Coach

2. http://photographyhotspots.com.au/photography-location/bronte-

3. Three wise men…
“I think the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity”
Stephen Hawking (1942-!)
“I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of
complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other
side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955)
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple,
and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)

4. Ukiyo-e woodblock print - “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and
1833.

5. “When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the
war,”
General McChrystal

6. http://www.e-ir.info Publication “The Arab Spring of Discontent” http://thenepoproject.org/2012/09/26/greeks-protest-against-austerity-with-general-strike/
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/tahir-square-is-back.html
“If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that
produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat
themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.”
Robert Pirzig,
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
“95% of the problems in business are system driven and only 5% are people
driven.”
W. Edwards Deming

8. Source: Brian Castellani - Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html

9. Not Everything is Complex
• Complicated System
– Interrelated parts.
– Linear behaviour, Predictable.
– Equal to the sum of its parts.
• Complex System
– Connected elements.
– Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour.
– Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence.
– Cannot be described by analysing the components alone.
Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge

10. In Control Un-Control Out of Control
Stability Evolution/Revolution Catastrophe
Constrictive Principled Conflicted
Regimented Dynamic Chaotic
Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.

11. Non Linear Effects Memory and Culture
Evolution or Collapse
Energy Flows
Learning and
Capability “Living”
System
Constraints
Short Range and Simple
Interaction Rules
Possibility Space
Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system Advantage seeking time driven Social Agents

12. New definition of Scrum
Action orientated sense-making group
under pressure and constraints that
responds constantly with and within its
environment to create emergent value
and learning experiences.
Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com

13. You absorb complexity,
you don’t delude yourself
into thinking you can
eliminate it
Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.

14. Complex Complicated
Unordered
Ordered
Disorder
Chaotic Simple

15. Complex Complicated
Unknown - Unknowns Known- Unknowns
C≈E C===E
C≠E C=E
Unknowables Known - Knowns
Chaotic Simple

16. Complex Complicated
Weak central, Strong central,
strong distributed strong distributed
Weak central, Strong central,
weak distributed weak distributed
Chaotic Simple

17. Complex Complicated
Exaption Adaption
Emergent Specialist
Practice Practice
Novel Best
Practice Practice
Actaption Adoption
Chaotic Simple

18. Complex Complicated
Probe Sense
Sense Analyse
Respond Respond
Act Sense
Sense Categorise
Respond Respond
Chaotic Simple

19. Exploration
JIT Transfer
Swarming
Complex Complicated
Standardisation
Convergence
Improvement
Divergence
Collapse
Chaotic Simple
Imposition

20. Warm and Fuzzy Increasing Expert Tyranny of
predictability, knowledge
Distractions agent breaks the Experts
interactions down,
stabilizing increasing
agent
Complex interactions Complicated
Knowledge diffused, system
increasingly well understood
Agent interactions breaking down
Issues requiring expert intervention appear
Constraints on system and agents appear
Obvious
solutions and
opportunities
Chaotic
to crises
appear High
Simple
uncertain
risk of
True catastrophe
Mind-
Catastrophe Numbing
Bureaucracy

21. • By 2016, the Cynefin
framework will be used by
10% of IT organisations as
a sense-making
methodology.
• Best practice methodologies
make us vulnerable to the
effects of increasing
complexity and ambiguity.
• Capture past stories and
conduct operational games.

22. New Vocabulary
• Complexity, Uncertainty, Ambiguity, Constraints.
• Intractable problems and Anticipatory Awareness.
• Messy coherent systems.
• Story telling and micro narrative exploration.
• Co-evolutionary coalescence.
• Articulated and unarticulated requirements.
• Serendipitous discovery.
• Exaptation and novel increments
• Starvation, Pressure, Perspective Shift.

23. Methods
• Butterfly Stamping
– Familiarisation, highlight perspective differences
• Future Backwards
– Clarify past perceptions and lessons, planning perspectives
• Anecdote Circles
– Narrative collection and understanding
• Safe-Fail Probes
– Find the best solution, test coherence
• Ritualised Dissent
– Challenge orthodoxy and consensus with diversity

29. Safe to Fail Probes
Future Backwards
Butterfly Stamping
Anecdote Circles
Ritual Dissent
Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com

30. Where to now Scrum Master ?
• Create capability of Complexity Thinking
• Establish Cynefin model understanding
• Facilitate contextual sense-making
• Foster anticipatory awareness
• Implement methods during Scrum
• Exaptively co-evolve product and business

31. Resources
http://cognitive-edge.com/ http://www.youtube.com/w
atch?v=yXIePVkTY0A
http://santafe.edu/ http://comdig.unam.mx/ http://www.plexusinstitute.org/
http://www.complexityexplorer.org/

32. anton.rossouw@tabar.com.au
0439 802 017