ACCS

1. Team Mafias in Training – Analysis
We shall start with first analyzing the factors which impact each of the three available investment options.
Some factors which are common to all are: Attractiveness for investors, Market Sentiment, Risk and Uncertainty.
FACTORS AFFECTING GOLD PRICES
 USD Currency Rate is inversely
proportional to gold prices. Hence gold
prices are expected to rise.
 Fed Rates / Government Policies:
Increase in fed rates has led to increase in
gold prices in past which has been
observed empirically. Since fed rates are
expected to rise in December, hence gold
prices will increase.
 Demand-Supply: Increase in demand
leads to increase in prices.
 Crisis: Recent natural calamities will
motivate people to make safe
investments like gold. Hence, increase its
price.
 Geopolitical tension between US and
North Korea is further expected to hit the
US stock market thus driving people to
park their money in safe havens such as
gold.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Stable investment, decent returns and as
market sentiment suggest and present
market scenario, we will be investing in gold
as follows:
Proportion: 35%
Time of Purchase: 08:20AM, 17th
September 2017
FACTORS AFFECTING BITCOIN PRICES
 Rate of Bitcoin Mining
 Skepticism of Governments resisting the
use of digital currency. (Ban in China) :
Since the trade of bitcoins in china
accounts for just 10% of net bitcoins,
impact on bitcoin prices was temporary
and recovered less.
 Attractiveness for Investors can be seen
by the positive sentiment analysis.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Elevated Risk and uncertainty which
lead to higher premium on
investments makes us invest the
following amount in Bitcoins:
Proportion: 45%
Time Of Purchase: 08:20AM, 17th
September 2017
FACTORS AFFECTING ASHOK LEYLAND
STOCK PRICES
GST helped growing automobile sector.
 Distribution of dividend in July 2017
increased Ashok Leyland stock price.
 Investment of INR 1.5Crore in future
technology improved attractiveness for
investors.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
FORECASTING
Minimal risk, safe bet but low absolute
returns makes us invest following amount in
this stock: Proportion: 20%
Time of Purchase: 08:20AM, 17th
September 2017

2. APPENDIX
R code for forecast and Sentiment Analysis
install.packages(c("forecast","lessR","zoo"))
library(forecast)
library(lessR)
library(zoo)
library(plotly)
AshokLey_stock <- read.csv(file = "ASHOKLEY.NS.csv",header = TRUE,sep = ",")
bitcoin <- read.csv(file = "coindesk.csv",header = TRUE,sep = ",")
AshokLey_stock_ts<-ts(AshokLey_stock$Close,frequency = 7)
bitcoin_ts<-ts(bitcoin$Close,frequency = 24)
plot_ly(data = AshokLey_stock,y = ~Close, name = 'Actual', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines+markers') %>%
add_trace(x = c(36,37,38,39,40,41,42),y = ~a, name = 'Predicted', mode = 'lines + markers')
F.ts <- ts(bitcoin$Close, start=c(1,1),frequency = 24)
F.ts
plot(F.ts)
decomp <- stl(F.ts, s.window="periodic")
decomp
plot(decomp)
hw <- HoltWinters(log10(F.ts),alpha = 0.655, beta = 0.3, gamma = 0.75)
hw
plot(hw)
hw.p <- predict(hw, n.ahead=15)
predicted_values <- 10^(hw.p)
predicted_values
plot(predicted_values)
rows <- nrow(bitcoin)
for(i in 1:15)
{
bitcoin <- rbind(bitcoin,c(bitcoin$Date[rows]+i,predicted_values[i]))
}
rows <- seq(184,198)
plot_ly(data = bitcoin,y = ~Close, name = 'Actual', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines+markers') %>%
add_trace(x = rows,y = ~predicted_values, name = 'Predicted', mode = 'lines + markers')

3. Movement of December Gold Futures price wrt NASDAQ