The world of mobile internet, games, and digital investment is navigated by the work in data put forth by firms like Digi-Capital. Managing Director Tim Merel explores how best to profit from the big numbers pulled from research on the growth of mobile internet revenue from varying perspectives of the market, at the appbackr App Retreat 2014.
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3. Executive summary Public company and M&A comparables Operational metrics analysis Mobile internet sector reviews (revenue forecasts, public company comparable valuation multiples, public company indices, M&A transactions, M&A valuation multiples, investment transactions - Q1 2011 to Q2 2014, operational metrics analysis)*
•Advertising/marketing
•App store/distribution
•Books
•Business
•Education
•Enterprise mobility/B2B
•Entertainment
•Finance
•Food & drink
•Games
•Health & fitness
•Lifestyle
•mCommerce
•Medical About Digi-Capital
3
•Messaging
•Music
•Navigation
•News
•Photo & video
•Productivity
•Social networking
•Sports
•Mobile Tech
•Travel/transport
•Utilities
•Wearables
•Weather
19
41
47
49
94
102
107
114
122
151
171
183
195
239
247
257
292
496
300
319
333
340
345
364
372
392
399
443
460
488
493
* Where available - see detailed table of contents for individual sector contents
Note: investments <$250K included in total figures, but not listed separately
Contents (of full Review)
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Detailed table of contents
at end of this free summary
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Mobile internet revenue to grow >3x to $700B* by 2017
•Mobile internet revenue to grow >3x to $700B* by 2017F driven by mCommerce, IAPx and App as a Service
•mCommerce growth to >$500B sales by 2017F driven by Asia, America and Europe (almost half in Asia)
•Consumer apps to >$70B by 2017F with non-games apps to double revenue share from 26% to 51%
•Mobile internet investment record >$14B in last 12 months
•Mobile internet M&A record >$47B in the last 12 months (>$28B excluding Facebook/WhatsApp)
•Opportunities across mobile internet Investment Quadrant with >20 “billion dollar” companies already
•Mobile internet public and private company relative valuations vary significantly across sectors
•Deep metrics understanding enables data driven approach to mobile internet investment and growth
* Note: Approximate mobile value added ecosystem revenue forecast 2017F
X IAP = in-app- purchase
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iOS generates the most revenue, Android the most downloads
Sources: Digi-Capital, Distimo (US data), Apple, Google, Flurry, IDC, Business Intelligence, One Platform Foundation, Companies
Apple App Store vs Google Play relative monetization
Selected Android App Stores
Available apps (K) and app downloads (B)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
01/08
04/08
07/08
10/08
01/09
04/09
07/09
10/09
01/10
04/10
07/10
10/10
01/11
04/11
07/11
10/11
01/12
04/12
07/12
10/12
01/13
04/13
07/13
10/13
iOS Apps (K)
Google Play Apps (K)
iOS Downloads (B)
Google Play Downloads (B)
Apps (K)
Downloads (B)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total revenue
Advertising
Paid apps & in- app purchase
In-app purchase
Revenue per download
Apple App Store
Google Play
Google Play apps and downloads passed iOS in 2013
App Store
Downloads
Apps
Average downloads per app
Country
Amazon
25M per month
76K
329 per month
Worldwide
Anzhi
180M per month
80K
2,250 per month
China
AppChina
30M per month
120K
250 per month
China
D.cn
30M per month
n/a
n/a
China
gFan
2.5B total
n/a
n/a
China
Google Play
60B total
1M
3,125 per month
Worldwide
HiAPK
290M per month
511K
568 per month
China
Lenovo
300M total
400K
750 total
China
Mobango
1B total
100K
10,000 total
Worldwide
Opera Mobile
30M per month
70K
429 per month
Worldwide
SlideME
15M per month
40K
375 per month
Worldwide
SK T-Store
28M per month
72K
389 per month
Korea
Tencent
300M per month
100K
3,000 per month
China
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1. Executive summary (page 19)
a)Mobile internet market economic overview
i.Major mobile internet market economic trends
ii.Mobile internet usage vs other media (2009 - 2013)
iii.Mobile internet revenue share (2013 vs 2017F) - mCommerce sales, consumer apps revenue, enterprise mobility revenue, mobile web adspend, wearables revenue
iv.mCommerce regional sales forecast (2013 – 2017F) – Asia, North America, Europe (West & East), LatAm, ME/Africa
v.Mobile consumer apps revenue forecast by app sector (2011 - 2017F)
b)Global mobile internet investment and M&A overview
i.Global mobile internet investment transaction value by sector (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
ii.Global mobile apps M&A transaction value by sector (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
iii.Digi-Capital mobile internet Investment Quadrants
iv.Mobile internet public market indices by sector (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
v.Mobile internet public market valuation ranges by sector (as at Q2 2014)
vi.Mobile internet M&A valuation ranges by sector
c)Mobile internet industry trends, highlights and detailed operational metrics
i.iOS vs Android apps and downloads
ii.iOS vs Android relative monetization
iii.Global Android app store downloads, apps and average downloads per app
iv.Global app revenue share (iOS/Android)
v.App category downloads vs revenue by app category
vi.App as a Service overview
vii.App business model segmentation by app category
viii.Operational metrics analysis overview (top 1% grossing apps vs top 5% grossing apps)
ix.Billion dollar mobile internet company valuations vs value created per year since founding
x.Mobile internet consolidators overview
xi.Mobile internet sector consolidation curve
Table of contents (of full Review)
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27. 27
2. Public company and M&A comparables (page 41)
a)Public company comparables by sector (59 public companies included - see companies by sector below)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Sectors are mobile advertising/marketing, app store/distribution, enterprise/B2B, entertainment, food & drink, games, lifestyle, mCommerce, messaging, music, navigation, social networking, tech, utilities and all sectors combined
b)M&A comparables by sector
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median) and EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)*
ii.Sectors are mobile advertising/marketing (no EBITDA multiples), enterprise/B2B, entertainment, finance, games, mCommerce, messaging (no EBITDA multiples), photo & video (no EBITDA multiples), social networking, tech, utilities and all sectors combined 3. Operational metrics analysis (page 47)
a)Selected key performance metrics for games, entertainment, finance, messaging and music sectors
b)Operational metrics in each sector for top 1% grossing apps, top 5% grossing apps, top 25% grossing apps, top 50% grossing apps, relative performance of top 1% grossing vs top 5% grossing multiples, top 1% grossing vs top 25% grossing multiples, top 1% grossing vs top 50% grossing multiples
c)Selected metrics include sessions per day, lifetime value, % paid conversion in first 7 days, ARPDAU, sessions first 7 days/following 7 days, sessions per week, second session conversion rate, % of paid conversion in first 90 days, 3 day retention, average session length, 7 day retention rate, % of paid conversion in first 30 days, ARPDPU, % of organic to paid users, 90 day retention rate, 7 day registration rate, 30 day retention rate, 2 day completed registration rate, and 14 day registration rate. Selected metrics differ by app category
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
28. 28
4. Mobile advertising/marketing review (page 49)
a)Mobile advertising spend forecast (2013 – 2017F)x
i.In-app advertising spend
ii.Mobile web advertising spend
b)Public company comparables (Adways, Hipcricket, Kitara Media, Mobile Embrace, Rocket Fuel)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
d)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple*
e)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 5. App store/distribution review (page 94)
a)App store revenue share forecast (2013 – 2017F)**
b)Public company comparables (Sungy Mobile)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q4 2013 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
d)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
Sources: Digi-Capital, Zenith Optimedia, PWC, AppAnnie, Companies, Gartner
x In-app advertising and mobile web advertising spend, excluding mobile advertising/marketing services revenue
** App store revenue share component only
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Table of contents (of full Review)
29. 29
6. Books apps sector review (page 102)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 7. Business apps sector review (page 107)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c) Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 8. Education apps sector review (page 114)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c) Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
30. 30
9. Enterprise mobility/B2B sector review (page 122)
a)Revenue forecast (enterprise apps) (2012 and 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Citrix Systems, Clicksoftware Technologies, Fleetmatics, Globo International, Mobile Iron, Vocera Communications)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
ii.EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)
d)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple*
e)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 10. Entertainment apps sector review (page 151)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Dwango, Mandalay Digital, Moko Social Media, MTI, Ubiquity Broadcasting, Youku Tudou)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
ii.EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)
d)Key operational metrics analysis of top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% grossing apps
e)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple*
f)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
31. 31
11. Finance apps sector review (page 171)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
ii.EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)
c)Key operational metrics analysis of top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% grossing apps
d)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple*
e)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 12. Food & Drink apps sector review (page 183)
a)Public company comparables (Grub Hub, Just Eat)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q2 2014)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
32. 32
13. Games apps sector review (page 195)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Ateam, Colopl, Com2us, Crooz, Cyberagent, DeNA, Drecom, Forgame, G5 Entertainment, Gameloft, Gamevil, Glu Mobile, Gree, Gung Ho, IGG, King, Klab, NHN, Taomee, Voltage)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
ii.EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)
d)Key operational metrics analysis of top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% grossing apps
e)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple, net profit multiple*
f)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 14. Health & Fitness apps sector review (page 239)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
33. 33
15. Lifestyle apps sector review (page 247)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Move, Yelp, Zillow, Zoopla)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
d)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 16. mCommerce apps sector review (page 257)
a)mCommerce sales forecast (2013 – 2017F)
i.By smartphone
ii.By tablet
b)Public company comparables (Bango, Mint Wireless, Net Element)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
ii.EV / EBITDA (low, high, mean, median)
d)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple, EBITDA multiple*
e)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
34. 34
17. Medical apps sector review (page 292)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
c)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 18. Messaging apps sector review (page 300)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 and 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Naver, Tencent)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A comparables
i.EV / revenue (low, high, mean, median)
d)Key operational metrics analysis of top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% grossing apps
e)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M), revenue multiple*
f)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
35. 35
19. Music apps sector review (page 319)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (Pandora)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)Key operational metrics analysis of top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% grossing apps
d)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
e)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)* 20. Navigation apps sector review (page 333)
a)Revenue forecast (2013 – 2017F)
b)Public company comparables (AutoNavi, Telenav, Tom Tom)
i.Market value, net debt, enterprise value (EV), % of 52 week high, EV/ Sales (2013A – 2016E), Sales CAGR (13A – 16E), EV/ EBITDA (2013A – 2016E), EBITDA CAGR (13A – 16E), PE (2013A – 2016E), EPS CAGR (13A – 16E)*
ii.Public company index chart (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
c)M&A transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, acquirer, deal value ($M)*
d)Investment transactions (Q1 2011 – Q2 2014)
i.Date, target, investors, deal value ($M)*
* Where available
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Table of contents (of full Review)
42. 42
About Digi-Capital
Digi-Capital advises mobile internet, games & digital clients across America, China, Japan, South Korea and Europe
Sell-side M&A
Buy-side M&A
Fundraising
Investment
Board Advisory
Strategic Consulting
Industry Analysis
Selected Clients