2. What determines voting behaviour?
• Voting behaviour is determined by a combination of factors with varying
degrees of importance. These include;
– The media
– Social class
– The party leader
– Age
– Parents
– Education
– Region
– Ethnicity
– Gender
– Religion
– Opinion polls
• For this section you need to be aware of protest voting, and tactical voting
• There are also various models that aim to explain voting behaviour; such as the
party identification model, rational choice theory and the issues-based model
Politics – Voting Behaviour

3. The media and voting behaviour
• The media plays a major role in determining voting
behaviour in three ways
• The media can shape the political agenda by focusing upon
issues such as immigration and crime
• The media can also choose what not to focus upon. For
example in the 1997 General Election, their was little
mention in the media of the healthy state of the economy,
which may have weakened electoral support for the then
Conservative government
• Newspapers may also reinforce a reader’s voting
behaviour. This is more noticeable with tabloid papers, who
tend to take a more overtly biased stance. For example
shortly after the 1997 General Election, one newspaper
claimed “It’s the Sun wot won it!”
Politics – Voting Behaviour

4. How important is the media?
• A sustained media focus upon negative aspects of a party
can have an impact upon voter perceptions. For example,
the focus upon ‘sleaze’ and divisions over Europe within
the Conservative government of John Major undoubtedly
damaged the Tories electoral chances in the 1997 Election
• In the 1980s most newspapers supported the
Conservatives, whereas since 1997, most newspapers
have supported new Labour. Based on this evidence,
newspapers may have some degree of influence upon the
result of the General Election
Politics – Voting Behaviour

5. Politicians and the media
• Those who control the media are very powerful people, and
as such, politicians want to maintain a good relationship
with them.
• This would suggest that party leaders consider the media
to be an important influence upon voting behaviour. It is
also the case that political parties and their leaders try to
present a favourable media image.
• In the modern era, it is widely believed that parties tailor
their ‘image’ in order to attract as many voters as possible
Politics – Voting Behaviour

6. Newspapers and their political bias
LABOUR CONSERVATIVE
• The Murdoch-owned press; • Daily Telegraph
which includes the Sun, the • Daily Mail
News of the World and the • Daily Express
Times
• Daily Mirror
NEITHER
• The Guardian
• (The aptly-named) Independent
• The Observer (the Guardian’s
Sunday paper)
Politics – Voting Behaviour

7. The importance of social class
• During the 1950s and 60s, around two-thirds of the
working-class voted Labour, and four-fifths of the middle-
class voted Tory. It was therefore argued that social class
was one of the most important factors determining voter
behaviour. The political scientist called Peter Pulzer once
claimed that “class is the basis of British party politics; all
else is embellishment and detail.”
• Today, many people still vote along class lines. For
instance in the 2005 General Election, most Tory voters
derived from social class AB and C1; whereas Labour
gained most of its support from C2 and DE voters.
However, the impact of social class has declined
significantly due to changes to the occupational structure of
the UK workforce
Politics – Voting Behaviour

8. What is class de-alignment?
• A significant section of the electorate no longer votes along
class lines. This reversal in traditional class-based voting
patterns is called class de-alignment
• Class de-alignment occurs when the middle-class vote
Labour, and the working-class vote Conservative
Politics – Voting Behaviour

9. Class de-alignment
• Middle-class Labour voters fall • Working-class Tory voters base their
into three categories vote upon deference and support for
Conservative policies
• Public sector workers. This is
• In the 1980s Mrs. Thatcher was
primarily because Labour are
particularly successful at appealing
more likely to raise the level of to working-class (former Labour)
public expenditure voters in the Midlands and the
• People who work in ‘caring’ South
professions such as health and • Since 1997 electoral turnout in ‘safe’
education, and Labour seats with a high
• those who take a more liberal concentration of working-class
voters has declined. However unlike
stance on lifestyle issues, such
the 1980s, many working-class
as women’s rights and gay voters have simply stayed at home
rights rather than switch to the
Conservative party
Politics – Voting Behaviour

10. Other factors (1)
• The party leader. With the increasing media focus upon the leader of a
party, the electoral contest is portrayed as the Prime Minister against
the leader of the official opposition. As such, the electoral appeal of the
party leader can have a decisive impact upon voting behaviour. For
example Tony Blair was considered an electoral asset for the Labour
party for many years. However, he is now widely considered to be an
electoral liability
• Age. Old age pensioners are more likely to vote Conservative, whereas
younger voters and middle-aged voters are much more likely to support
the Labour party
• Parents. First-time voters can be greatly influenced by the political
views of their parents. Even after children leave home, their choice of
party can still be influenced by their parents
Politics – Voting Behaviour

11. Other factors (2)
• Education. Students who went to independent schools and
grammar schools are much more likely to vote
Conservative, whereas those who attended comprehensive
schools are more inclined to support the Labour party
• Regional factors. There is a notable geographical division
within the UK; with voters in Scotland, Northern England
and Wales more likely to vote Labour. Inner-city areas are
also more likely to elect a Labour MP. In contrast,
Conservative support is heavily concentrated in rural areas
and in the South of England. Electoral support for the
Liberal Democrats tends to be stronger in South-West
England and the ‘Celtic fringe’
Politics – Voting Behaviour

12. Other factors (3)
• Ethnicity. Labour have traditionally secured high levels of
support from ethnic minorities, but since the Iraq war, many
Muslim voters have switched to the Liberal Democrats. In
recent years the Conservative party has tried to broaden its
appeal to ethnic minorities, and in the 2005 election, it
fielded more ethnic minority candidates than any other
party
• Gender. In the 2005 General Election Labour held a slight
lead over the Tories amongst female voters. This was
primarily due to the Government’s family-friendly policies.
Male voters were evenly split between the two main parties
Politics – Voting Behaviour

13. Other factors (4)
• Religion. The Conservatives usually gain strong support
from those who attend Church of England services,
whereas Labour tend to do well with Methodist church-
goers. However in terms of its impact upon voting
behaviour, religion is of minor importance
• Opinion polls can have an affect upon voting behaviour
during a General Election. For example, voters may stay at
home if the result appears to be a foregone conclusion.
This might partly explain the low level of turnout in the last
three General elections. Alternatively, opinion polls can
create a “bandwagon effect”, as in 1997 when Labour
regained power after 18 years in opposition. In some
countries, opinion polls are banned in the run-up to an
election due to their possible impact upon the result
Politics – Voting Behaviour

14. What is meant by protest voting?
• Protest voting. A small percentage of the electorate
registers a protest vote. In 2005, many traditional Labour
voters switched to the Liberal Democrats in protest at
Blair’s support for the Iraq war. In addition, extremist parties
such as the BNP gain a great deal of their support from
protest voters, particularly in working-class constituencies
Politics – Voting Behaviour

15. What is tactical voting?
• Tactical voting occurs when a voter does not support their
preferred party, but votes for another party to keep out the
party they most dislike. Tactical voting was a major factor in
1997 and 2001, when Labour and Liberal Democrat voters
switched in order to keep out the Conservative party
Politics – Voting Behaviour

16. The party identification model
• This model implies that voters stay loyal to a particular
party from one election to another. People identify with a
party from an early age on the basis of social class, the
influence of parents, etc.
• Since the 1960s, the party identification model has become
less convincing due to a decline in electoral loyalty. Voters
are now much less inclined to take a partisan view of
political parties, partly because of a decline in deference
and a growing mistrust of politicians
• Due to this decline in party loyalty, a high number of votes
are ‘up for grabs.’ As such, there is a small but crucial
number of floating voters (voters that switch allegiance
from one party to another) in marginal constituencies that
ultimately decide the result of a General Election
Politics – Voting Behaviour

17. Rational choice theory
• According to this model voters base their choice of party
upon the record of the main parties, particularly in terms of
the economy. During the 1980s the Tories were most
trusted to run the economy, but in recent years the
economy has been a relatively strong card for the Labour
party
• Rational choice theory implies that voters believe there is
little ideological difference between the main parties. As
such, a rational voter merely chooses which party he/she
feels best represents their (and their families) interests. For
example, someone employed in the public sector might
vote Labour due to a perceived ‘rational’ interest
Politics – Voting Behaviour

18. Issues - based model
• This model suggests that voters base their choice upon which party
deals most effectively with the issues that he/she cares most about. For
example, a right-wing voter may place a high priority upon issues such
as law and order and illegal immigration, whereas a left-wing voter may
be more concerned with welfare issues
• All political parties focus their campaign upon issues they believe to be
their strongest cards. Generally speaking, the Labour party will focus
upon health and education, whereas the Conservatives will emphasise
issues such as tax, immigration and law and order. In the 2005 General
Election, the Liberal Democrats focused their campaign primarily upon
their opposition to the Iraq war, and their pledge to abolish tuition fees
• With the decline in party identification and class based voting, the
issue-based model has become more persuasive in recent years
Politics – Voting Behaviour

19. Electoral turnout
• Electoral turnout is measured as a percentage of those
registered to vote. In the 1950 General Election, 84% of the
electorate turned out to vote – a post-war record
• Voter apathy has grown in recent years, which has led to a
major decline in voter turnout from 71% in 1992 to just 59%
in 2001
• In 2005, the figure was 61%. In terms of numbers, more
people voted in the TV show “I’m a celebrity, get me out of
here!” than in the General Election
• As a result, barely 1 in 5 of the electorate registered
support for the Labour party
• There are various factors that might explain low electoral
turnout (see next slide)
Politics – Voting Behaviour

20. How might we explain low turnout?
• Voters feel there is little to choose between the main
parties in terms of ideology and policies
• Disillusionment with mainstream politics. This is a particular
problem amongst young people
• In the last three General elections, the opinion polls implied
that the final result was never really in doubt. As such many
people stayed at home, particularly in ‘safe’ Labour seats
• The feeling amongst some of the electorate that one vote
cannot make much of a difference
• Boredom with the political process
• The growing sense that politicians do not listen to the views
of the people, or fail to live up to their promises
Politics – Voting Behaviour

21. Recent turnout in UK General Elections
Politics – Voting Behaviour