1. Business, Market & Competitive Reconnaissance: Exploiting Growth Opportunities by Anticipating Industry Change Arik R. Johnson 3M Marketing Forum Founder, CEO & Managing Director St. Paul, Minnesota Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com Friday 04 April 2008

2. Competitors, Customers, Markets & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies

8. Connecting Emergent Phenomena

9. “ Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly. Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin. Admonitions to develop more creative strategies or to think outside of the box are rarely accompanied by practical advice.” Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne

11. Customers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”

12. Disruptive Technology

14. RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.

16. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles

17. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance

18. The Duality Continuum of Reconnaissance includes Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical

19. Most Attempts at Innovation Fail Innovation can be thought of as an instrument with ten main notes from which to choose, ranging from such categories as a company’s business model to customer experience, he said. Knowing which to play and how to combine them is the key. “ If you use these notes and compose some new and fresh way to do business, go to market, and astonish customers, the world will notice,” Keeley said. Usually companies approach business innovation by first brainstorming a hopper of ideas and then subjecting them to the process known as stage-gating, where ideas are winnowed out, until, Keeley said, CEOs come in like Roman emperors to give a thumbs-up or -down. A better method, he said, is to start by diagnosing a business or industry’s conditions to find weak spots, which offer the first hint at what keys to play. Business leaders should declare an intent and set conditions before teams of workers begin to foster initiatives. It’s also best to work on a small number of big ideas rather than expending time and effort on a large number of small ideas, Keeley said.

20. Larry Keeley Innovation Strategist Doblin, Inc. Long thought to be at the core of innovation, new products are, if anything, a distraction—"an overly emphasized, not-very-important basis for innovation." Keeley's research suggests that many other types of innovations, from changes to channels or brands or customer experience, to changes in processes or service systems or business models, are vastly more likely to give you sustained advantage. A good innovation exercise begins with diagnostics. Keeley's methodology includes assembling the right combination of customer needs (most of them unmet and subtle); with competitive patterns, those actions being taken by the players in an industry; plus a company's own capabilities, all integrated with clear step-by-step protocols. This sounds like it ought to be self-evident, but Keeley finds that "the absence of good innovation protocols means that the average innovation team is forced to make up both what they will address and how they will address it—a prescription for failure." By integrating these three types of insights— customer needs, competitive patterns, and a company's own capabilities —and combining them with solid protocols, innovation becomes a routine competence and companies can double or triple their success rates. In fact, Doblin clients routinely find success with key programs more than fifty percent of the time. He tells companies that the really big hits are often the products that innovate in not one but two or three or more "innovation spaces." Further, Keeley tells them to focus their brainstorming. "The worst mistake is to have everyone running off generating a million ideas," says Keeley. "The goal is to focus on a very few very bold ideas that tend to work, as opposed to many, many ideas all over the place that tend to fail." Keeley has a vision of the world a few years from now. Innovation will be just another management discipline—like budgeting or auditing—that is well understood, thoroughly analyzed, shared and taught. What appeals to him is the sense that innovation can be so implicitly understood that everyone who wants to can feel like they can not only participate but also succeed. "We're entering a time when a great many organizations and individuals can be effective at creating something new and noteworthy and workable.“

21. The Ten Types of Innovation

22. 10 Examples

23. The Reconnaissance Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION