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The CEO Panel
Vail Roundtable
August 15, 2018 | Confidential Document
Introduction
Ken Harding | FTI Consulting
Global Publishing Leader
Strategy Development
Business Plan
Development
Performance
Improvement
Transaction Diligence
Newspapers
Magazines
Direct Marketing | Mail
Commercial Printing
Books
Education
Global Publishing Practice
FTI uses an experienced-based analytical
approach to help companies understand:
SELECT CLIENTS
SERVICES VALUE PROPOSITION
INDUSTRIES
Sector Trends
New Business Models
Digital Transformation
Consumer Monetization
Sales Effectiveness
Expense Optimization
3
Thanks to Our Panel
4
 María Eugenia Ferré Rangel | Chairwoman at GFRM
Media
The impact of Hurricane Maria, how we survived and what
we learned through the crisis
 Andy Clurman | CEO at Active Interest Media
Revenue diversification beyond our printed magazines
through events, films, insurance and more initiatives
 Jerry Ferrara | President at IBD [Investor’s Business Daily]
Moving from a 5-day printed product to weekly
distribution and a focus on new paid digital products and
the transformation from print to digital
Approach This Morning
5
 Short company introduction from each panel
member…and then Maria….
 A few trends…we probably all know about
 Moderated panel discussion
 Q & A from the ROUNDTABLE
What Do We Know
We cannot stop legacy print declines
Today, our revenue mix is generally more
advertising than consumer
Nearly all digital growth is garnered by
Google and Facebook
Mobile exceeds desktop advertising
revenue and audience and should be the
focus
It’s all about engagement…if you are in the
media business you are in the audience
engagement business…
6
Total Ad Revenue vs. Circulation Revenue
Total Ad Revenue [print + digital] has been negative since 2011 and gap increasing
Circulation revenue has benefited from all-access and increased rates for print
7
-9.0%
-0.5%
4.7% 4.5%
2.5%
-0.3%
-7.9%
-16.6%
-27.2%
-6.3%
4.8%
-6.5% -6.8% -6.4%
-7.8%
-10.3%
2.3% 2.3% 1.8%
-2.1% -2.2% -1.8% -2.4% -2.0%
-0.2%
4.6%
1.8%
1.0% 1.2%
0.4%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
US Newspaper Revenue YoY Change - 2000 to 2016F | Pew
Advertising Circulation
Great Recession
All Access Begins
-0.3%
-0.7%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.3%
-1.9%
-3.0%
-4.2%
-6.1%
0.0% 0.0%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-0.7%
-6.7%
-8.1%
-0.6% -0.5% -0.5%
-1.3%
-4.3%
-3.8% -3.6%
-4.2%
-6.0%
-7.6%
-3.4%
-1.2%
-4.2%
-7.7%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US Newspaper Circulation Volume YoY Change - 2000 to 2016F | Pew
Weekday Sunday
Circulation Volume
Circulation declines started in 2005 well before rate increases
Volume declined with all-access rate increases in 2012
Volume declines continue as Publishers continue to raise rates
8
Great Recession
All Access Begins
Digital Ad Spending
9
$71.6
$83.0
$93.8
$105.4
$117.5
$129.2
36.7%
40.1% 42.8% 45.5% 47.8% 49.9%
19.7%
15.9%
12.9% 12.5% 11.5% 10.0%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US Digital Ad Spending ($Blns) - 2016-2021F | eMarketer
Ad Spend % Media Spend YoY Change
Digital ad spending continues to gain market share
Digital growth is slowing
Programmatic Digital Ad Spending
Programmatic will dominate digital spending
Significant early growth moderating
10
$17.5
$25.5
$32.6
$39.1
$45.7
51.0%
45.6%
27.8%
20.1% 16.9%
65.0%
73.0%
78.0%
81.5% 83.6%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US Programmatic Ad Spending ($Blns) - 2016-2021F | eMarketer
Ad Spend YoY Change % Digital Spend
The CEO Panel
What’s Next
Vail Roundtable
August 15, 2018 | Confidential Document

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The Executive Roundtable: Ken Harding

  • 1. The CEO Panel Vail Roundtable August 15, 2018 | Confidential Document
  • 2. Introduction Ken Harding | FTI Consulting Global Publishing Leader
  • 3. Strategy Development Business Plan Development Performance Improvement Transaction Diligence Newspapers Magazines Direct Marketing | Mail Commercial Printing Books Education Global Publishing Practice FTI uses an experienced-based analytical approach to help companies understand: SELECT CLIENTS SERVICES VALUE PROPOSITION INDUSTRIES Sector Trends New Business Models Digital Transformation Consumer Monetization Sales Effectiveness Expense Optimization 3
  • 4. Thanks to Our Panel 4  María Eugenia Ferré Rangel | Chairwoman at GFRM Media The impact of Hurricane Maria, how we survived and what we learned through the crisis  Andy Clurman | CEO at Active Interest Media Revenue diversification beyond our printed magazines through events, films, insurance and more initiatives  Jerry Ferrara | President at IBD [Investor’s Business Daily] Moving from a 5-day printed product to weekly distribution and a focus on new paid digital products and the transformation from print to digital
  • 5. Approach This Morning 5  Short company introduction from each panel member…and then Maria….  A few trends…we probably all know about  Moderated panel discussion  Q & A from the ROUNDTABLE
  • 6. What Do We Know We cannot stop legacy print declines Today, our revenue mix is generally more advertising than consumer Nearly all digital growth is garnered by Google and Facebook Mobile exceeds desktop advertising revenue and audience and should be the focus It’s all about engagement…if you are in the media business you are in the audience engagement business… 6
  • 7. Total Ad Revenue vs. Circulation Revenue Total Ad Revenue [print + digital] has been negative since 2011 and gap increasing Circulation revenue has benefited from all-access and increased rates for print 7 -9.0% -0.5% 4.7% 4.5% 2.5% -0.3% -7.9% -16.6% -27.2% -6.3% 4.8% -6.5% -6.8% -6.4% -7.8% -10.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8% -2.1% -2.2% -1.8% -2.4% -2.0% -0.2% 4.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F US Newspaper Revenue YoY Change - 2000 to 2016F | Pew Advertising Circulation Great Recession All Access Begins
  • 8. -0.3% -0.7% 0.0% -1.0% -2.3% -1.9% -3.0% -4.2% -6.1% 0.0% 0.0% -2.2% -6.3% -0.7% -6.7% -8.1% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -1.3% -4.3% -3.8% -3.6% -4.2% -6.0% -7.6% -3.4% -1.2% -4.2% -7.7% -9.0% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Newspaper Circulation Volume YoY Change - 2000 to 2016F | Pew Weekday Sunday Circulation Volume Circulation declines started in 2005 well before rate increases Volume declined with all-access rate increases in 2012 Volume declines continue as Publishers continue to raise rates 8 Great Recession All Access Begins
  • 9. Digital Ad Spending 9 $71.6 $83.0 $93.8 $105.4 $117.5 $129.2 36.7% 40.1% 42.8% 45.5% 47.8% 49.9% 19.7% 15.9% 12.9% 12.5% 11.5% 10.0% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US Digital Ad Spending ($Blns) - 2016-2021F | eMarketer Ad Spend % Media Spend YoY Change Digital ad spending continues to gain market share Digital growth is slowing
  • 10. Programmatic Digital Ad Spending Programmatic will dominate digital spending Significant early growth moderating 10 $17.5 $25.5 $32.6 $39.1 $45.7 51.0% 45.6% 27.8% 20.1% 16.9% 65.0% 73.0% 78.0% 81.5% 83.6% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 US Programmatic Ad Spending ($Blns) - 2016-2021F | eMarketer Ad Spend YoY Change % Digital Spend
  • 11. The CEO Panel What’s Next Vail Roundtable August 15, 2018 | Confidential Document