partially added, for market insight

1. Sales Strategy
“Market Research for Automotive
in EE Countries”
Ayhan Turkmen
2011

2. Challenging business environment
Geographic Focus and Business Environment
Focus Countries Competitiveness* and Ease of Business
[17 select Countries] [2010, Select Countries]
Low Kyrgyz Rep.
1 Tajikistan
2 Serbia Bosnia
Armenia
Georgia Moldova
Albania Ukraine
3 4
5 Macedonia Kazakhstan Croatia
Global Competitiveness Mexico Russia
Azerbaijan Brazil
South Africa Italy India
Montenegro
1. Russia
China
2. NW-CIS Nations: Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine
UK
3. Balkan Nations: Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia Japan
France
4. Central Asian Nations: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic High US Germany
Turkmenistan, Tadzhikistan, Uzbekistan
High Ease of Doing Business Low
5. Caucasus Nations: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
Note: * Competitiveness data for Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan not measured by World Bank
2

3. Vehicle density and wealth
Countries Countries*
[2010; Tsd/Capita, $/Capita] [2010; Tsd/Capita, $/Capita]
42.000 20.000
GER
24.000 Developed
SLO
22.000 Developed
20.000 15.000
CRO
18.000
CZ Rep.
16.000 SLO Rep. Developing
Wealth 14.000
Developing CRO
POL Wealth 10.000
12.000 HUN RUS
10.000
8.000 KAZ RUS Emerging KAZ
ALB SER
6.000 AZB 5.000 AZB ALB BOS BEL
BOS SER BEL
TUR ARM
4.000 GEO TUR
UZB
2.000 UZB ARM UKR TAD UKR
MOL GEO MOL
0 TAD 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Car Density Car Density
Note:
3

4. LV Sales, Main Players in EE Countries
LV Sales
[2010; %]
2.255
SERBIA 14
KAZAKHSTAN 22
CROATIA 40
BELARUS
1% UZBEKISTAN 41
1% 3% UKRAINE 57
2% 8%
2% 175
1.906
2010:
2.255
[Tsd Units]
85%
RUSSIA
RUSSIA UKRAINE UZBEKISTAN CROATIA SERBIA KAZAKHSTAN BELARUS Total Sales
2010
• Russia with 1.9 million LV sales and 85% market share (out of Russia & UUCSKB in 2010)
• Ukraine, currently 175,000 LV sales, second biggest market (out of Russia & UUCSKB in 2010)
• UCSKA with accumulated LV sales of 173,000 units (out of Russia & UUCSKB in 2010)
Note: UCSKA = Uzbekistan, Croatia, Serbia, Kazakhstan and Belarus; AAABKMTT excluded due to data comparability reasons
4

5. PC Sales, Main Players in EE Countries
PC Sales
[2010;%, Tsd Units]
F NK
E A 1.536
3% 34 0 46
D 2% 48
7% 0% 104
3%
556
B
36% 748
2010:
1,536
[Tsd Units]
49%
C
C B D A E F NK Total Sales
2010
• In C segment; Lada Priora, Lada Samara, Ford Focus
• In B segment; Lada Riva, Lada Kalina, Renault Logan
Note: UCS = Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia;
5

6. PC Segment Market Shares
Segment MS in Russia Segment MS in UUCSKB
[2010;%] [2010;%]
1.307.989 116.347 33.735 31.096 28.250 10.780 6.875
3% 4% 4% 5%
A A
B B
C C
37% 37%
D 38% D
E E
F 67% F
N/K N/K
51% 48% 45%
24%
7% 10% 11%
5%
2% 2% 1% 1%
RUSSIA UKRAINE SERBIA CROATIA BELARUS
UZBEKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
Note: UCS = Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia
6

7. LV Segment Market Shares
Segment MS in Russia Segment MS in UUCSKB
[2010;%, %] [2010;%, %]
598.173 58.817 28.250 10.780 10.149 6.875 6.462
SUV SUV
Vans Vans
MPV MPV
42%
PUP PUP
53%
MIC MIC
70% 67%
N/K N/K
35%
34%
16%
24%
11% 22%
12%
4% 6%
2% 2% 2%
RUSSIA UKRAINE UZBEKISTAN CROATIA SERBIA
KAZAKHSTAN BELARUS
Note: UCS = Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia
7

8. PC Sales Segment Growth Forecast
PC Sales Frcst
[2010/2015;Tsd Units]
2.507
21 0 37
49 27
77
96
317
348
1.536
Market B C1 D1 C2 A E D2 F N/K Market
Volume Volume
2010 2015
• In the B segment; new models (Lada Granta, Chevy GSV) can be main drivers
• In the C segment; Lada Priora, new Hyundai Verna are shining
Note:
8

9. LV Sales Segment Growth Forecast
LV Sales
[2010/2015;Tsd Units]
1.235
37
10
83
86
299
720
Market Volume 2010 SUV Vans MPV PUP NK Market Volume 2015
• In the SUV segment; new models (Hyundai Tucson, Dacia Duster, Nissan X-Trail)
Note:
9

10. Top 30 Forecasted MS Changes
Market Share Changes
[2010/15] Belongs to Top 10 Brands in 2010
Top 1-10 MS Change 2010/2015 MS 2015 Top 11-20 MS Change 2010/2015 MS 2015 Top 21-30 MS Change 2010/2015 MS 2015
1,4% 5,8% 0,4% 1,7% 0,1% 0,6%
1,2% 5,8% 0,4% 1,8% 0,0% 0,6%
1,1% 4,6% 0,3% 1,4% -0,1% 5,6%
0,8% 1,8% 0,3% 1,3% -0,3% 1,1%
0,8% 4,9% 0,3% 5,2% -0,3% 1,9%
0,8% 1,7% 0,3% 1,2% -0,5% 4,5%
0,8% 3,1% 0,2% 2,4% -0,6% 3,3%
0,7% 3,3% 0,2% 0,6% -0,7% 2,6%
0,6% 2,3% 0,1% 0,6% -2,2% 1,3%
0,6% 1,3% 0,1% 2,0% -7,7% 16,3%
• The total market is forecasted to increase by 1.488 million units
Note: Names were not shared due to public ly viewed.
10

11. Executive Summary
Country Perspective
+ Segment Perspective
+ Competitive Landscape
• Russia remains the biggest market
in EE, growing 9% CAGR until • Share of cars to light trucks will
2015 (forecasted sales volume in remain stable, but in terms of
• Top 10 sales range remains stable
2015 of 3 million) volume increase, LT will outperform
but overall sales level will increase
• Ukraine is the “runner” country, cars by 500 Tsd units
• Overall MS changes of Top 30 will
tripling its current sales volume to • Passenger car sales mainly driven
be moderate. However decreases
half a million (until 2015) by B and C segments, LTs mainly
for Daewoo and Lada remain
• UCSKA countries with high growth by SUVs
significant
potential but coming from very low • SUVs, B & C car segments with
sales volume levels in comparison significant sales volume growth.
to Russia and Ukraine
• Topic 2: Policy and Regulatory Changes
• Topic 3: Consumer Trends in EE Markets
• Topic 4: Key Players’ Strategic Moves
• Topic 5: Product & Line Strategy
11

12. Thanks 
This is a summary of a whole deck of >50 pages,
which consist of some figures & charts for by country, by segments,
Growth records
Market shares
Forecasts in 2015
EE Countries Outlook
You can ask for detail at:
ayhanturkmen@tt-partners.com
12