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Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
1. Using Search to
Predict 2012
Presidential Election
Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real
http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal
November 4, 2012.
5. 2008 vs 2012 Search still very
close
2008 Obama won 2012
election
-5- Augustine Fou
6. Assumptions
• Relative search volume reflects intensity of
interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy =
low turnout)
• People are rational and vote rationally
• Popular vote and electoral vote reflects
rational votes
more search volume = greater intensity of interest
-6- Augustine Fou
7. 2012 Presidential Election
Map of swing states
as of Sunday,
November 4, 2012.
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin
Source: Politico
-7- Augustine Fou
17. Search Intensity by State
Notice the states
with most intensity
that overlap
- 17 - Augustine Fou
18. News Mentions Ratio
News search could also include
bad news items like Romney
getting caught for staging
Hurricane Sandy Relief photo op.
- 18 - Augustine Fou
19. Shame on Romney Camp
Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op
October 19
GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s release of
misleading information – LATimes, October 30
Staged Romney Sandy Hurricane Relief
November 1
- 19 - Augustine Fou
20. YouTube Views Ratio
We believe people will watch the
candidate they believe in, rather
than watch people you don’t like.
- 20 - Augustine Fou
22. Compete Site Traffic
BarackObama.com
has 4x the website
traffic and pageviews
compared to
MittRomney.com
Source: Compete.com
Sept 2012 Data
- 22 - Augustine Fou
26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist
“I advise clients in using search
volume to get unique insights about
their customers – to inform
marketing and even innovation.”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23
ClickZ Articles: http://www.clickz.com/author/1151/augustine-fou
Slideshares: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
November 4, 2012 26
acfou@mktsci.com
27. John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator
John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance
Analytics expert with significant experience helping
Fortune 500 and start-up clients: map paths to growth,
harness innovation and digital transformation, bring
new products / services / ventures to market and
commercialize new technologies.
He is also an independent global consulting partner
with OgilvyRed: the strategy & innovation center for
excellence of Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide and was
most recently executive director, CRM Platforms &
Innovation of OgilvyOne (the digital arm of Ogilvy.)
He began career in advertising followed by almost a
decade with the Interactive Multimedia and Digital
Marketing practices of McKinsey & Company and is a
graduate of Columbia University.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal
November 4, 2012 27