The document discusses trends in the European Union over the next five years. It notes that the European Parliament will have 650 members if and when the UK leaves the EU. It also discusses how national interests may influence MEPs and whether the EU will pursue more or less integration. Finally, it predicts that climate change, digital issues, challenges to diversity and fragmentation, and national influence over Brussels will all significantly impact EU policy in the coming years.

1. Andras Baneth | 17 Oct 2019 | Dubrovnik

2. The EU in 2019

3. It’s not that bad
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/15/european-public-opinion-three-decades-after-the-fall-of-communism/

4. The EP
elections
of 2019

5. Pro vs.
Anti-EU

6. The current European Parliament

7. How many MEPs
will there be
if/when the UK
leaves the EU?
A. 751
B. 650
C. 705
D. 612

8. The post-Brexit European Parliament

9. How cohesive will
the groups be?

10. Influence of national
MEPs in 2014-19

11. Which one will prevail?

13. More integration...
or less?

14. EU changeover + Brexit

15. PEOPLE
turnover → reacquaint
committees with
industry & issues
The 4 P's
OF EU POLITICS
PROCESS
tight majorities → block +
importance of individuals
POLITICS
green wave, blocking of
Commissioners, East-West
& North-South divide... it's
about power
POLICY
need to show Europe works →
climate/circularity/consumer© James Stevens/Rud Pedersen

16. Transparency and ethics
of lobbying become major
political issues
#1
5TRENDSFORTHE
NEXT5YEARS

17. Europe is
increasingly
trying to find
its own voice,
values &
identity
5trendsforthenext
5years
#2

18. Climate change
& digital issues
will permeate all
policy areas
#3
5 trends for the next 5 years

19. The challenge to address the
diversity and fragmentation of
the EU institutions will intensify
#4
5trendsforthenext
5years

20. The road to Brussels often goes
through national capitals
(🙏 National Member Associations)
#5
5trendsforthenext
5years

21. Thank you :)
ANDRAS BANETH
Public Affairs Council European office
ANDRAS@BANETH.EU
(+32) 496 201416
@ANDRASBANETH
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