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2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’

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2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’

  1. MOBILE IS EATINGTHE WORLD Presented at BEA, May 2013 Benedict Evans @benedictevans Enders Analysis
  2. 0 50 100 150 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets The state of PCs Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis2
  3. 0 200 400 600 800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones Smart phones are exploding 3 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  4. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones All mobile phones 4 More mobile growth coming Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  5. 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e Global annual unit sales (m) PCs Smartphones and tablets Source: Enders Analysis5 The future is mobile
  6. The world in 2017 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Population Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets 2017 forecast base (m) Source: GSMA,World Bank, Enders Analysis6 2012 Growth to 2017
  7. • Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate • Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge • Internet and Media are being dragged along • Tablets accelerate the change • This is changing everything Fundamental change 7
  8. Fundamental change in scale PC industry • 350m PCs sold in 2012 • 1.6bn units in use • Replaced every 4-5 years • Shared Mobile industry • 1.7bn phones sold in 2012 • 3.2bn mobile users • Replaced every 2 years • One per person 8
  9. Fundamental change in use PC internet • Shared, or used at work • Semi-portable at best • Web and web search Mobile internet • Personal • Taken everywhere • Web, web search, apps, social, location, service integration, prediction,APIs, image recognition, NFC... 9
  10. 0 25 50 75 100 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Microsoft share of connected device unit sales (%) Source: Enders Analysis10 The irrelevance of Microsoft
  11. 0 25 50 75 100 Units Revenue Operating Profit Global handset industry share, Q1 2013 (%) Apple Samsung All other Source:Apple, Samsung, Enders Analysis11 Dominance of Apple & Samsung
  12. Industry scale Mobile networks Advertising Mobile phones PCs Apple Books Online advertising Amazon Google Recorded music Facebook 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 2012 global revenue ($bn) Source: Zenith,Apple,Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola Mobility), Facebook, Enders Analysis12
  13. 0 15 30 45 60 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Global unit sales (m) Laptops Desktops Tablets Tablets overtaking PCs 13 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Global unit sales (m) iPad Branded Android Kindle Fire Nexus 120m tablets in 2012 - 66m iPads Source:Apple, Google,Asus, Enders Analysis14
  15. • Well over 200m tablets will be sold in 2013 • Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far below) • A flood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125m units in China alone this year, with prices under $150 • Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung & Google Tablets in 2013 15
  16. 0 25 50 75 100 Jan 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 US Google search volume (indexed) kindle kindle fire nook Weakening interest in ereaders Source: Google16
  17. iPad dominates use everywhere 0 20 40 60 80 100 US UK Germany France Japan China Share of tablet web traffic, February 2013 (%) iPad Android Kindle Fire Nook Source:Adobe17
  18. Amazon -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Annual results ($bn) Revenue Net income Source:Amazon18
  19. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Amazon North American revenue ($bn) Media revenue General merchandise & other revenue Source:Amazon19 21st Century Sears Roebuck
  20. 0% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ecommerce as % US retail revenue Much more ecommerce to come Source: BLS, Enders Analysis20
  21. ‘Four horsemen’ Apple Google Facebook Amazon 21
  22. 0 200 400 600 800 Mar-10 Sept-10 Mar-11 Sept-11 Mar-12 Sept-12 Mar-13 Active users (m) Apple iOS Google Android Facebook mobile users Amazon accounts 22 Source:Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon, Enders Analysis Ecosystem sizes
  23. • Apple and Google’s Android have won • Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (Windows Phone, Blackberry, other newer efforts) • But share of value and use between Apple and Android is fluid • Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle, Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear • Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value 23 Platform wars
  24. 24 For Apple, the ecosystem is what sells hardware For Amazon, Google and Facebook, the experience on the phone is what drives engagement with all their services Ecosystem is the key leverage point

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