Monthly Issues - The Climate Project India

1. THE CLIMATE MONITOR
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CLIMATE CHANGE & A study published in Science suggest that, due to
climate change, “Southern Africa could lose more
AGRICULTURE than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South
Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice,
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated
millet and maize could top 10%". The 2001 IPCC
globally. Global warming is projected to have
Assessment Report concluded that the poorest
significant impacts on agriculture, including
countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in
temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off and
crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions
precipitation. These conditions determine the
due to decreased water availability. In Africa and
capacity of the biosphere to produce food for human
Latin America many rain fed crops are near their
and animals and the overall effect of climate change
maximum temperature tolerance, such that yields
on agriculture will depend on the balance of these
are likely to fall sharply for even small climate
effects.
changes.
Rise, Fall and Potential of India's Traditional Water
Harvesting System provides a comprehensive
overview of India's millennia-old traditions of water
harvesting. This book triggered a nationwide interest
in community-based water management.
Climate change is
likely to affect
crops differently
from region to
:;*<!!""#$%%&&&'#=-"/=;,>?;*@,>"=;->'0/(%;()8->%1*@;)ABCD)=(*;8'7#89 region. According
to the UK Met
9 Office, average
Various methodologies have been developed to crop yield is !""#$%%&&&'()*+,-.#/'0/(%123456%+)('7#89
measure the impact on agriculture. There is a link expected to drop
starting with economic activity to greenhouse gas down to 50% in Pakistan whereas corn production in
emissions and concentrations, radiative forcing, Europe is expected to grow up to 25%. More
climate change, market and non-market impacts to favourable effects on yield tend to depend, to a large
economic damages. Land use change such as extent, on realization of the potentially beneficial
deforestation and desertification, together are the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and
major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide. increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in
potential yields is likely to be caused by shortening
Despite technological advances, such as improved
of the growing period, decrease in water availability
varieties, genetically modified organisms and
and poor vernalization. A yam are not just a food
irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in
crop, but embraces a whole culture in it, like rice
agriculture, soil properties and natural communities.
cultures in Indonesia, Thailand and other rice
The effect of climate on agriculture is related to
growing communities, there is a whole lot more than
variabilities in local climates rather than in global
meets the eye. This puts pressure on forest areas,
climate patterns. The earth's average surface
as large families tend to make more than one
temperature has increased by 1 degree F over the
garden. In forest communities, the general thinking
last century. Agronomist considers an assessment
is that there are enough areas for gardening and so
has to be individually considered for each local area.
the traditional shifting agriculture is still a major
Agriculture trade has grown enormously on a practice. So now the pressure is on yam growing
national level. The international aspect of trade and communities and will need to look at new ways of
security in terms of food implies the need to consider cultivating yams. This calls for massive
the effects of climate change on a global scale. dissemination of new thinking and practices that are
environmental friendly.
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2. In the long run, the climatic change could affect continuation of the current retreat will eventually
agriculture in several ways like productivity, in terms deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or
of quantity and quality of crops; agricultural eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the
practices, through changes of water use and ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer
agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs
and fertilizers; environmental effects, particularly in replenished. According to a UN climate report, the
relation to frequency and intensity of soil drainage Himalayan glaciers, principal dry-season water
(leading to nitrogen leaching); soil erosion, reduction sources of Asia's biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus,
of crop diversity; rural space, through the loss and Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could
gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land disappear by 2035. Approximately 2.4 billion people
renunciation, and hydraulic amenities. Crops may live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers.
become less competitive, as humans may develop India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods
or salt resistant varieties of rice. Rapid climate followed by severe droughts. In India alone, Ganges
change could harm agriculture in many countries, provides water to more than 500 million people. The
especially those that are already suffering from west coast of North America, which gets its water
rather poor soil and climate conditions, because from glaciers in mountain ranges like Rocky
there is less time for optimum natural selection and Mountains would be affected.
adaptation.
Sweet potato, the world's seventh most important
food crop, is extremely important to global food
security, according to Experts. Yet very little
genomic information is available in a form that sweet
potato breeders can use to develop new varieties for
enhanced nutrition or improved resistance to
stresses brought about by climate change and
adverse environmental conditions. In addition to
creating genetic maps of sweet potato, Experts will
use high-throughput DNA sequencer to develop
sweet potato micro array for studying where, when
and how certain genes are expressed, especially
during stress, related to environmental factors such
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as drought.
They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly
because there is lack of information that include the
uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the
effects of technological changes on productivity,
global food demands, and the numerous possibilities
of adaptation. Most agronomists believe that
agricultural production will be mostly affected by the
severity and pace of climate change, not so much by
gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there
may be enough time for adjustments.
In conclusion, climate change is expected to
"##$%&&'''(#")*+,-./0))1(234&24&#")*+,-./0))1&,4+/)5&67&5'))#8$3#+#389+--84+0:)#8-/(;$/! increase temperatures, affect changes in
precipitation, increase likelihood of floods, reduce
Areas like Bangladesh, India and Vietnam will fresh water availability, impact on Coastal agriculture
experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels are and promote outbreak of pests and diseases.
expected to rise by the end of the century.
We, especially in India, need to learn to live with less
The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number water from technologies currently available from
of different quantitative impacts. In areas that are such countries like Israel. We should introduce
heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that energy efficient pumps, drip irrigation and growing
melt during the warmer summer months, a seedlings such as for rice using hydroponics with
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3. technologies, which speed up and reduce water ecosystem, which provides the soil with everything it
required for such cultivation. needs for good fertility, through the actions of tree’s
roots and litter. (Trees, crops and soil fertility;
India has over 135,000 varieties of rice and many concept and research method, Par Goetz
varieties are becoming extinct. There are special Schroth,Fergus L. Sinclair)
varieties of rice such as deepwater floating rice and
we need to learn how to preserve and grow such Put simply, if we conserve forests, we enable the
varieties. water to penetrate the topsoil and to replenish
groundwater, which is crucial to agriculture, instead
We also need to encourage expertise and of allowing excessive evaporation from top soil.
production of crops such as Drumsticks, Annual
Moringa, Sweet potato, Yam and Dioscorea alata (a
life saving crop), according to Prof. Dr. M.S.
Swaminathan.
There are neglected crops for coping with climate
change such as ragi and millet and these need
attention.
We need to prepare ourselves for the worst and
hope for the best.
If the Himalayan glaciers dry up by 2035, we should
have an alternative plan in place for crops as well as
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This is a collective challenge we have to face. Forests keep the rainfall from “washing” the soil
away by their leaf cover and their roots and
Mr. Kamal Meattle, TCP-India - Presenter therefore prevent soil erosion. By “keeping” this
rainwater trapped in its soil, forests reduce flooding,
FORESTS: AN ALLY AGAINST particularly during monsoon season, which would
CLIMATE CHANGE lead to less groundwater and even more and intense
floods. Forest conservation is a means to ensure
India has a water supply and soil fertility to local farmers.
long tradition
of forest Soil erosion, while a natural phenomenon is
protection, presently being exacerbated dramatically by human
dating back activities, and can lead to brutal consequences like
142 years. landslides, earthquakes or volcanic activity (Vanoni,
India’s Forest 2006).
and Tree
The causes of erosion are multiple: wind, water,
Covers
change in temperature or lack of vegetation. The
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consequences are an impoverished land and a loss
23.84% of the total geographical area of the country.
of fertile soil.
Deforestation in India was mainly caused because of
excessive wood product industries. However for the The most noticeable effect of climate change directly
last few decades, Indian forests have grown, at the impacting forests is rise in temperature, since it
rate of 0.3 million hectares between 1997 and 2007, affects the lifecycle of plants and animals. This is
adding to a total of 3.13 million hectares (State of called phenology. For the past 100 years, the
the World’s Forests, 2009). Today, pressure is put average global temperature has risen by
on these forests exploited for pulp, plywood, logging approximately 0.6° C (Nature 421, 2003), which has
or timber. consequences on the cycles of plant blossom and
production, as well as animal reproduction. Some of
Forests are extremely vital for agriculture, climate
them might not even survive the increase in
and human welfare, mainly because they reduce the
temperature and disappear. India already hosts
loss of surface water. A forest is a balanced
2.9% of the world’s threatened species, many of
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4. which live in the exceptional ecosystems formed by Global warming, the prerequisite of climate change,
forests (Biodiversity Profile of India). accelerates the processes within the hydrologic
cycle. Precipitation, evaporation and evapo-
Because of climate change, droughts and floods will transpiration (evaporation of water from vegetative
appear in unusual areas, causing ecological matter) processes are sped up, which by implication
disasters in forests. India’s forest cover is going to effects water availability (Loaiciga et al., 1996).
be greatly affected by climate change; some will Water supply for agriculture comes from two main
disappear and some will mutate into tropical or moist sources within the hydrologic cycle, surface water
forests, which will cause great damage to the fauna and groundwater. Surface water is stored in rivers,
and flora that they host. wetlands and lakes and is replenished through
precipitation and snow-melt. Ground water, also
It is important to note that through photosynthesis, referred to as sub-surface water is stored
forests act as a gigantic carbon reservoir. According underground, either in porous rock and soil material
to a 2009 report by the ministry of Environment and just below the surface layer of the earth or in
Forests of India “In India the total amount of carbon aquifers below the water table. The replenishment of
stocked in forests rose up to 6,662 million tons in groundwater happens at much slower rates
2005. These CO2 sequesters compensate for compared with surface water. Infiltration is the
11.25% of India’s total GHG as emissions. This can primary method by which precipitated water filters
also be appreciated as100% emissions from all through permeable surfaces of the earth to reach
energy in residential and transport sectors; or 40% underground aquifers (Narasimham, 2009).
of India’s agricultural sector’s emissions” (India’s
forest and tree cover; Contribution as a carbon sink,
2009).
Sustainable agriculture depends on forests and
forests depend on sustainable agriculture. Forests
play a great role in mitigating the effects of climate
change, and it is clear that protecting them must be
a high priority for us!
Mathilde Bres, Volunteer, TCP-India
HYDRO CLIMATIC CHANGE AND
AGRICULTURE IN INDIA
India’s water supply is already in high demand due Global per capita ground water availability
to increased urbanisation, rapid industrialisation, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Freshwater availability: groundwater and river flow, UNEP/GRID-
population growth and economic development. Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-
availability-groundwater-and-river-flow (Accessed 8 September 2008).
Added demand from agricultural expansion grossly
heightens anthropocentric modification of the The implications of an accelerated hydrologic cycle
hydrologic cycle. Climate change serves to add are however temporal and geographically variable.
further pressure to India’s water sources, which Some areas, such as India’s Indo-Gangetic basin,
without careful management could become are expected to receive increased surface water
unsustainably challenged. Agriculture is particularly availability from increased snow-melt until the year
vulnerable to climatic change because it is directly 2030. Thereafter, surface water reserves will
dependent on weather conditions (Mall et al., 2006). gradually decline as sources of snow-melt are
Adequate water supply is essential for the irrigation exhausted. Though rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic
of most crops grown in India. It is also a mainstay of basin is likely to lessen, most other hydrologic
India’s livelihood, agriculture supplies food for over basins are likely to experience greater precipitation.
1.16 billion people and contributes to over 17% of The increase in precipitation however, coincides with
India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Kumar and greater rainfall intensity. Currently India’s total
Parikhi, 2001) Because of the importance and annual rainfall occurs within only 100 hours during
vulnerability of agriculture in India, sustainable water monsoon season. Hydro-climatic change could
management is crucial for resiliency towards climate result in half of the predicted rainfall occurring within
change and pressures from a growing population.
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5. just 30 hours. Higher rainfall intensity means that and wetlands, are particularly at risk because
surface water run off will be exaggerated (Shah, increased run-off will transport more pollutants at
2009). This raises flood risk because excessive run rates too fast to allow for natural filtration to reduce
off can exceed the carrying capacity of most rivers, the contamination. Groundwater sources have a
lakes and wetlands. Groundwater reserves are also better capacity to filter out pollutants, however once
negatively affected by excess run off as it limits they become contaminated they are extremely
replenishment through infiltration (Narasimham, difficult to decontaminate. Groundwater sources are
2009). particularly susceptible to seepage from organic
chemicals used as pesticides in agriculture, which
can be toxic even at very low quantities.
Furthermore due to global sea level rise associated
with climate change, groundwater supplies,
specifically in coastal areas, are at risk of becoming
contaminated by saltwater intrusion. Saltwater
contamination of groundwater would render it
unusable for both potable needs and agricultural
irrigation (Loaiciga et al., 1996).
Climate change coupled with pressures from
population growth put water availability and water
quality at risk. Integrated management of surface
water and groundwater reserves is necessary to
ensure agricultural pursuits are sustainable across
geographic regions and throughout seasonal
variations in India. Agricultural practices which limit
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the likelihood of water contamination are also
The implication of such varied seasonal impacts primarily important in mitigating adverse effects of
means that Indian agriculture will experience a climate change (Shah, 2009).
range of potentially damaging effects. Kharif, or
monsoon season crops, such as rice, will experience Jayme Thompson, Volunteer, TCP-India
heightened risk of flooding during the monsoon
season but are likely to experience drought ECONOMIC IMPACTS:
conditions throughout the rest of the year. Winter
and summer crops will be affected by greater evapo- AGRICULTURE AS A LIVELIHOOD
transpiration, which means they will require more
frequent irrigation (Kumar and Parikhi, 2001).
Surface water will receive higher rates of
replenishment through increased run off, but will
also be susceptible to loss through increased
evaporation. Groundwater sources may be less
directly affected by climate change but because
changes to surface water will be increasingly
variable, the use of ground water will become more
frequently exploited. This means that regions where
groundwater is already in short supply are likely to
face even greater scarcity (Mall et al 2006).
Aside from variable water supply concerns, climate "##$%&&1)'5,4/(<<2(23(=:&4)*,+&,4+/)5&>?@>ABBB&;$/&C>?@>A>@DC,1*,+C<3*.C+$(;$/!
change and population growth will also put at risk
water quality. Both surface water and ground water It is no secret that agriculture forms the basis of our
sources can be affected which will have disastrous livelihoods, and that climate change plays a major
effects regarding potable use. Unsustainable role in the future of agricultural productivity. Whether
agricultural practices can be held responsible for agriculture is a source of income, food or
increases in effluent, nutrient and chemical employment, it forms the basis of our existence.
contaminates entering vital water reserves. (Mall et However, as a result of climate change, the future of
al 2006). Surface water catchments, lakes, rivers agriculture in India appears to be at risk.
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6. In the last few decades, India has seen its share of These statistics clearly reveal that climate change
extreme events in various forms – cyclones, floods and consequently extreme natural calamities will
and droughts. Not only have these impacts directly have a drastic impact on agriculture. It is crucial that
affected the farmers, but have also caused deaths, programs are undertaken in order to ensure that the
massive destruction and displacement of numerous livelihood of the farmers is not severely affected.
people from their homes. Keeping India’s geographic diversity in mind,
different programs will be required to be
implemented in various regions.
For example, in drought prone areas, farmers
require support and education to make a smooth
transition to sustainable dryland farming on a large
scale. By understanding and expanding into agro-
forestry or livestock production, farmers can find a
more resilient source of living. Furthermore, regular
cycles of drought in these areas require farmers to
shift to dryland crops so as to adapt to the extreme
climatic conditions. In order to deal with the large
debt that the farmers hold as a result of this drought,
"##$%&&'''()2(/2(2+&EFGH8FIGE&BJKLLLMA8NK?A8>O?P8@Q?J8 they must look for alternate options. By encouraging
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the start of new businesses or providing insurance
According to the report, Climate Change Impacts in options, these farmers will be will be given
Drought and Flood Affected Areas: Case Studies in opportunities to find new avenues by which they are
India (June, 2008), it is clear that the damage able to sustain themselves.
caused by climate change will have disastrous
impact on crops. To bring this point home, take the Flood prone areas, on the other hand, require other
example of Maharashtra - rainfall is expected to types of programs, for example providing the
o
increase by 20-30% with a 2.4-3.8 C rise in farmers with knowledge of rainfall-tolerant and
temperature. On one hand, it is projected that this shorter duration crops that are more resilient to
shift in rainfall and temperature increase will flooding. Aquaculture can be a great boon to
increase the yield of dryland crops such as jowar, farmers, if consistent progress is made in the field.
which will consequently increase farmers’ incomes Moreover, better planning could ensure that flood
by 8-10%. On the other hand, yield of sugarcane is zoning is undertaken. In this way, the growing
predicted to decline by as much as 30%, severely population will be able to make efficient use of the
affecting farmers’ incomes in this area. In another land.
drought prone part of the country, Andhra Pradesh,
for example, farmers’ incomes are expected to These are just some of the various programs that
plunge by 20% due to a shift in weather patterns. In can be undertaken to alleviate the damage done to
this scenario, with small rain-fed farms in large parts the lives and livelihood of the farmers. Each extreme
of the country, agriculture will no longer be able to event, whether a drought, flood or cyclone, brings
sustain our large population. with it a great amount of damage – in the form of
disaster-victims, damage to property or loss of
The report also talks about flood prone Orissa, livelihood.
where we have been seeing a consistent and
dangerous rise in flood-waters. It is projected that While each of us might be doing our part to
rice yield is expected to drop by 12%, causing contribute to reducing the effects of climate change,
immeasurable losses to all those relying on this we must ensure that those who do not have the
either directly or indirectly. available resources are provided with substantial aid
to meet this challenge.
The Economist reports that Uttar Pradesh, home to
185 million people, will be hit hard with rice Divya Shah, Analyst, TCP-India
production expected to go down by 60%. With
India’s primary reservoirs one-third below their CIVIL SOCIETY TRAINING
seasonal average, wheat production will also be
greatly affected. Water supply to major cities like This month, TCP-India in collaboration with Alliance
Delhi will be dramatically impacted as well. Francaise, Mumbai held another Civil Society
6

7. Training at the Alliance on November 21, 2009. The
audience was dynamic and consisted of persons of REFERENCES
diverse backgrounds including, college students,
journalists, entrepreneurs, professionals, and State of the World’s Forests 2009 (FAO) _
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0350e/i0350e01b.pdf
NGO’s.
Centre for Ecological Science Bangalore _
The first half of the workshop kicked off with a http://ces.iisc.ernet.in/hpg/cesmg/indiabio.html#Threatened Species
friendly and intelligent repertoire about the science
India’s Forest and Tree Cover: Contribution as a carbon sink:
and Indian impacts of climate change delivered by
http://www.envfor.nic.in/divisions/ccd/Contri_carbon_sink.pdf
TCP-India’s Presenters - Anokhi Parikh and
Anuskha Pinto. During the second half of the day, Loaiciga, H, Valdes, J, Vogel, R, Garvey, J and Shwarz, H (1996)
the guest speakers shook the audience into an Global Warming and the Hydrologic Cycle. Journal of Hydrology (174)
awakening account of the state of India’s biodiversity pp 83-127
and waste management solutions. Dr. Anish
Kumar, L and Parikhi, J (2001) Indian Agriculture and Climate
Andheria from Sancutary Magazine, gave am awe Sensitivity. Global Environmental Change (11) pp 147-154
inspiring talk with much energy and enthusiasm as
he regaled the audience with his own experiences Mall, R, Gupta, A, Singh, R, Singh, R and Rathmore, L (2006) Water
and educated them about the plants and animals Resources and Climate Change: An Indian Perspective. Current
Science (90) (12) pp 1610-1626
that make up India’s precious but vulnerable
biodiversity. Mr Chetan Zaveri from IL&FS Ecosmart Narasimham, T (2009) Groundwater: from Mystery to Management.
Ltd had much of the same effect on the audience as Environmental Research Letters (4) 035002
he explained how he completed the unfathomable
task of transforming a landfill site into clean, green Shah, T (2009) Climate Change and groundwater: India’s opportunities
for mitigation and adaptation. Environmental Research Letters (4)
high profile real-estate. Bringing the day to a close, 03500
Anil Ranglani, from “Daily Dump” talked about a
simple but effective solution to waste management !
that is easy implemented in your home and result
ensure 100% separation of waste and recycling of
your dry waste.
NATURE WALK
At the end of the Civil
Society workshop,
our guest speaker Dr.
Anish Andheria
offered the audience
an opportunity to go
on a nature walk to
our very own Sanjay
Gandhi National Park,
which offer was
received with great
enthusiasm. The nature walk was held on December
6, 2009, and this fantastic experience allowed those
who joined us to truly understand the importance of
various elements of nature and the importance of
our forests and the ec systems that it supports.
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