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Future of Cities: Thinking for the long-term
1. Future of Cities:
Thinking for the long-term
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
credit: kaorihf/CC0 1.0
2. British Science Festival
1950
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
2
30%
Urban.
global pop.
40%
Urban.
global pop.
1980
52%
Urban.
global pop.
2010
61%
Urban.
global pop.
2030 2050
72%
Urban.
global pop.
A Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
3. British Science Festival
1950
3
2010 2030 2050
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
And looking closer at Europe...
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
4. 4 Foresight Future of Cities
Cities matter as places
Cities are dense concentrations of
people, jobs, culture, productivity
British cities substantially differ in
size, scale, speciality and complexity
Cities are the places where
policy objectives succeed or fail
Housing
Health
Growth
Employment
E.g.
5. 5 Foresight Future of Cities
Catalysts
Improved cities enable other
policy outcomes
Co-creators
Whitehall and cities as direct
partners in policy development
Amplifiers
Cities bring reputation, leverage,
brand to wider national policies
Cities are important
contributors to policy-making
Graduate employment [e.g. Sheffield]
Healthy lives [e.g. Bristol]
Innovation & investment [e.g. Cambridge]
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6. 6 Foresight Future of Cities
Cities comprise a way of thinking
- ‘cities lens’ for policy challenges
National policy is best when
informed by local circumstances
Cities and city-regions are good
places to integrate policy
National housing challenges has
different local supply-demand
realities: surplus in Liverpool,
undersupply in Bristol
Quality housing at local level
integrates connectivity
investment, employment
provision, facilities, etc.
e.g.
housing
7. 7 Foresight Future of Cities
Why now?
A time of devolution
The UK has been devolving
powers to cities for 15 years…
…the pace is now
accelerating
Greater London
Authority created
English Mayoral
Referendums
Manchester
Devolution Deal
Cities and Local
Government
Devolution Bill
2000 2012 2014 20152013
City deals
(Waves 1 & 2)
2007
Further powers
transferred to GLA
8. 8 Foresight Future of Cities
Many recent reports on cities
What are the prominent themes and
signals about the future of our cities?
9. 9 Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking about the future has a long history
– some things come to pass…
Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
Letchworth Garden City, 2013
Uxcester Garden City, 2015
credit: www.letchworth.com
credit: Urban Design Group
11. What we are currently thinking:
Future cities should be liveable cities
11 Foresight Future of Cities
credit: London Legacy Development Corporation
12. 12 Foresight Future of Cities
To realise attractive future cities,
action and investment will be needed
But the nature of city systems reveals
some fundamental challenges for
approaches for future investment
13. 13 Foresight Future of Cities
Challenge 1:
City systems have long cycles of impact
New towns
Green belts
City deals
GLA
Service economy
Railway
investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented
development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfield
development
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Importanceofcitiesasautonomousunits
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing
obesity levels
City networks
14. 14 Foresight Future of Cities
Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction
& retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
Employment
Well-being
Minimising isolation
& loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events
& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic
productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration
opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenge 2:
City systems are highly interdependent
ICT infrastructure
15. Thinking with a
system-wide view
15 Foresight Future of Cities
What do we have to do?
Respond with appropriate ways of thinking
NOW FUTURE
Thinking with a
long-term view
16. 16
How can we better support this?
Foresight Future of Cities
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
Active Cities development
17. 17 Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in evidence types required
Local consultation
and visioning
Academic reviews
Workshop feedback
Future trends analysis
Comparative data
Disruptive ideas
Aspirational visions
18. 18 Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in methods required
Speculative design
Future projections
Data analytics & modelling
Major city
empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline
2037
UK national system
“What-if” scenarios
19. 19 Foresight Future of Cities
Include local people
credit: GO-Science/OGLv3.0
20. 20 Foresight: Future of Cities
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which
the progress of modern science and industry may
exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon
the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily
susceptible to transformation and adornment than
the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
credit: Arpingstone/PD
21. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We
apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that
should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through contact@go-science.gsi.gov.uk .
@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science