Slides from the launch of the Foresight 'Future of Manufacturing' report - 30 October 2013.
See the reports:
Summary - http://www.slideshare.net/bis_foresight/13-810futuremanufacturingsummaryreport
Full report - http://www.slideshare.net/bis_foresight/future-of-manufacturing-a-new-era-of-opportunity-and-challenge-for-the-uk-project-report
For more information, see: http://bit.ly/FoMn
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Future of Manufacturing launch - presentation
1. The Future of Manufacturing:
A new era of opportunity
and challenge for the UK
10.00
10.05
10.15
10.25
10.50
11.30
Welcome (Sir John Parker)
Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)
Response from Government (Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)
Findings & framework for action (Lead Expert Group)
Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)
Close
Join in the conversation on Twitter:
@uksciencechief @foresightgovuk #FoMn #manufacturing
2. #FoMn #manufacturing
Key message 1:
Manufacturing matters, now and for the future
• Absolute value: 10% contribution to GDP (£139 bn in 2012)
• Exports: 53% of UK exports in 2012 (£256 billion)
• R&D: 72-79% of total UK business R&D spend 2000-2011
• Productivity: growth 2.3% p.a. (1980-2009), UK 0.7% p.a.
• Jobs: high skilled and well paid
• Resilience: provides resilience in face of recession
Manufacturing is and must continue to be an essential part of
the UK economy
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
3. #FoMn #manufacturing
The changing
position of
manufacturing
in leading
economies
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
4. #FoMn #manufacturing
Key message 2:
Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for manufacturing
More than making a product and selling it
• Packaging of services with products e.g. Rolls Royce
• Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM
• Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar
Manufacturers will increasingly make use of a wider ‘value
chain to create revenue.
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
5. #FoMn #manufacturing
Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for manufacturing
Faster, more responsive and closer to customers
• Mass personalisation of low-cost products, on demand
• Distributed production: big high-tech, modular, home, mobile
• Greater design freedom
• More digital connections along value chains
5
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
6. #FoMn #manufacturing
Looking ahead to
2050 - a new era for
manufacturing
Exposed to new market
opportunities
• Changes to personal wealth / ageing populations
• BRICs and the ‘Next 11’
• Continued global ‘fragmentation’ of the value chain
• Some ‘onshoring’ back to the UK
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
7. #FoMn #manufacturing
Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for manufacturing
More sustainable
• Growing / more urban populations raise resource demand
• Climate change and global supply chain vulnerability
• Resulting volatility in price of commodities
• Reuse, remanufacturing, recycling - a ‘circular economy’
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
8. #FoMn #manufacturing
Looking ahead to
2050 - a new era
for manufacturing
Increasingly dependent on
highly skilled workers
• Strong demand for manufacturing workers
• A need to accommodate more older workers
• Importance of STEM qualifications
• Blending of technical & commercial ‘hybrid’ skills
• Potential for human enhancement
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
9. #FoMn #manufacturing
Key message 3:
As manufacturing evolves, policy makers will need new
approaches to ensure that the UK is a place where it thrives
• Better intelligence - beyond measuring output from production
• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system
• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy
• Scaling up a number of existing initiatives
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
10. #FoMn #manufacturing
• Welcome (Sir John Parker)
• Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)
• Response from Government (the Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)
• Findings and framework for action
• Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)
10
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
11. #FoMn #manufacturing
• Welcome (Sir John Parker)
• Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)
• Response from Government (the Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)
• Findings and framework for action
• Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)
11
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
12. #FoMn #manufacturing
Faster, more responsive and closer to customers
Dr Hamid Mughal, Rolls Royce plc
• Central role of technology in manufacturing competitiveness
• Primary / underpinning technologies (ICT, sensors,
advanced materials, biotechnology…) likely to become more
pervasive in products and processes
• Secondary technologies (mobile internet, big data,
robotics, additive manufacturing…) likely to make use of these
• Implications - distributed production, personalisation of low
cost products, digitised value chains, higher performance
• Factories of the future will become increasingly diverse
12
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
13.
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• Product Technology gaps
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Problem
Lead - Industry
Partners: Supply chain, TSB / BIS,
Catapult
Collaborative Model of
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Universities
15. #FoMn #manufacturing
More Sustainable
Professor Steve Evans, University of Cambridge
• Potential volatility of supply / price of resources
• Climate change affecting vulnerable supply chains
• Greater use of regulation ‘pricing the environment’
• Consumer pull for eco-products
• Robust products for ‘collaborative consumption’
• Emergence of a circular economy in which products are
reused, remanufactured and recycled
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
18. #FoMn #manufacturing
New approaches to policy for the future
Professor Alan Hughes, University of Cambridge
• Better intelligence - beyond measuring production output
• Manufacturers already using a wider value-chain to generate
revenue from pre/post production
• New metrics would inform how new value is being created and
where the UK can capture more
• Potential for new models of data collection or sampling of firms,
piloted alongside existing systems
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
19. #FoMn #manufacturing
New approaches to policy for the future
Professor Alan Hughes, University of Cambridge
• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system
• Opportunity for industrial policy to evolve to the next level,
tailored to requirements of specific areas of the value chain
• Identifying barriers to emergence of new technologies and their
business implementation in different sectors
• A systems based approach is needed for the future, integrating
science, technology, innovation and industrial policies
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
20. #FoMn #manufacturing
New approaches to policy for the future
Professor Alan Hughes, University of Cambridge
• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy
• Changes in manufacturing will require future capacity in:
1. Evaluating changes across the sector, drawing in intelligence;
2. Assessing the impact of policies relevant across manufacturing;
and
3. Identifying and responding to international best practice in
policy design and implementation.
• One option would be to establish a US-style Office for
Manufacturing to strengthen Government capability
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Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
21. #FoMn #manufacturing
• Welcome (Sir John Parker)
• Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)
• Response from Government (the Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)
• Findings and framework for action
• Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)
21
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013
Notes de l'éditeur
Dr Mugal has offered an exciting vision for what technology will be doing differently in the future – whether in our products or those technologies used in our factories.
But that technology push will be happening alongside many other changes with strong implications for how manufacturing will respond.
During our global tests for the greatest drivers of change it was clear that the rest of the manufacturing world – europe, asia, north america – saw sustainability as the key driver for some time to come.
Sustainability is a broad topic with specific impacts on manufacturing, as listed here:
Volatility / supply chain vulnerability / regulation / consumer choice / changes to consumption itself (sharing vs owning) / and increases in re-use, re-manufacture and re-cycling as we move to a circular economy.
We have considered how manufacturing might respond to these drivers and identified three major phases of response – an early phase – which some pioneering manufacturers are already in – which emphasises significant improvements in efficient use of energy, water and materials. This phase offers hope for UK products and those UK technologies which can help the world’s manufacturers make their products more cleanly.
The second phase we characterise as a period of experimentation. This coincides with significant technology changes such as the integration of sensors which means that manufacturers will have ever increasing knowledge of what happens to their products when customers use them. That data will allow manufacturers to find new ways to deliver value to their customers – such as improving energy performance through offering service contracts where the manufacturer pays the energy bill, and therefore uses the best possible technology and know-how to deliver what the customer actually values.
Manufacturers who will succeed during this period are already, or will soon be, experimenting with new forms of value. The winners will be those manufacturers who can use their knowledge to deliver maximum value to the customer using minimum material, energy and labour.
In the final 3rd phase manufacturers will be able to use the latest technology to change the scale logic of manufacturing, and will be blurring what it is to be a manufacturer – with ever more making happening on the farm, in the retailer, and in the home, orchestrated by lead manufacturers who ensure quality & safety & efficiency.
Manufacturers will organise their supply chains so that the value they have put into molecules and compounds will be returned to them physically. Rather than going to landfill or being down-cycled to some low-value use, manufacturers will be able to use their technical knowledge to extract the maximum benefit from those materials.
This has been called the circular economy by some and forms part of a larger system change. Along with the technology changes that will see us growing more of our products – through biotechnology or additive manufacturing for example – we will be able to better use local materials and economically manufacture at small scale.
By 2050 factories will be able to organise their people, money, machines and materials in revolutionary ways that means the water and air leaving the factory is cleaner than the water and air coming in, that it can make a variety of products closer to the customer needs and using local materials. Such factories will be so attractive that people will petition to have them sited at the end of their street!