Farming technologies – challenges and opportunities
1. Farming Technologies – Challenges and
Opportunities
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
2. 2 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
• Knowledge translated to economic
advantage
• Infrastructure resilience
• Underpinning policy with evidence
• Science for emergencies
• Advocacy and leadership for
science
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Credit: iStockphoto
3. 3 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
This is what I do
Pesticide risks
and resistance Demographic change Animal Health
Faced with challenges, my role is to:-
•Draw in experts
•Encourage cross-silo thinking
•Make connections between different areas of science
•Question existing ideas
Climate change
Credit: Thoursie, sxc.hu
Credit: Josh Landis, NSFCredit: iStockphoto
Credit: iStockphoto
4. Science in Emergencies - Ashes to
Ashes
4 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: @dyntr (CC-BY-ND-2.0) Credit: V. Queloz, ETH Zurich
5. Resilience – Flooding on the Somerset Levels
COBR
Meetings
5 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
6. 6 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Immediate Challenges to UK Farming
• Public confidence in food supply
• Spread of Bovine TB
• Withdrawal of pesticides
??Credit: iStockphoto Credit: iStockphoto Credit: iStockphoto
8. Spread of Bovine TB
8 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
9. Distinguishing Risk and Hazard - Pesticides
9 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: S_E, Shutterstock
Credit: iStockphoto
10. Future Challenges to UK Farming
• Land and Population
• Price Volatility
• Climate
• Balancing Biodiversity,
Ecosystems & Food
Production
• The UK and European
Competitive Environment
10 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
11. Land and Population - Future supply
and demand
11 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: vauvau (CC-BY-2.0)
12. •Crop productivity will be affected by higher temperatures and
changes to water availability
•Higher temperatures will also increase stress upon cattle
•Disease patterns will also change as the migration patterns of
carriers of plant, animal and human diseases will change, posing
risks to both human health but also agricultural productivity
•Warmer oceans and ocean acidification will also impact food
security
At lower levels of temperature rise there may be some positive
benefits for crop production at higher latitudes, but at higher
levels of temperature rise the net effect of climate change is
expected to be negative
Climate change
12 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: CraneStation, Flickr
13. Life Science Research – Raise profile of
agricultural research?
• Strategy for UK Life
Sciences
• Big Data Revolution
• Prime Minister’s dementia
challenge
• 100,000 Genome Project
• July 2013 first ever Agri-
Tech Strategy (£160M)
13 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: Shutterstock
Credit: David Hares
Credit: Grand Trend
14. GMOs
• What organism?
• What gene?
• What purpose?
• The specific application – not the
generic technology
New Technologies - Managing risk, not ducking it
14 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: IRRI (CC-BY-2.0)
Credit: Rosalee Yagihara (CC-BY-2.0)
15. The policy challenge:
Viewing difficult issues through lenses
1. Biannual Public Attitudes Tracker, Wave 7, November 2013 (Food Standards Agency)
2. British Beekeepers Association, Winter Survival Survey, June 2013
3. http://www.croplifeamerica.org/crop-protection/pesticide-facts
Respondents concerned about
use of pesticides to grow food1
Use of crop protection
products increase crop
productivity by 20 – 50%3
Bee colony
losses in 2012/13
reported by British
Beekeepers
Association2
34%
25%
15 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Credit: Thomas Shahan (CC-BY-NC-ND-2.0)
16. 16 National Farmer’s Union Conference 2014 – Science Session
Solutions Involve all Tools
Technology
transfer
International
collaboration/
investment
Public
dialogue
YouTube: Fair use
Credit: Bananastock
Credit: OJO Images
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Conclusions
• Get evidence base right
• Economic importance of agricultural industry
(7% GVA)
• ONE Health, ONE Team
• Partnerships with industry and research
Notes de l'éditeur
The five challenges from the foresight report were:
Balancing future demand and supply sustainably
Addressing the threat of future volatility in the food system
Ending Hunger
Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world
Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services
Existing slide:
While the world population is rising year on year, the arable land available worldwide remains practically the same. This means that the per capita area available for safeguarding the supply of food is constantly decreasing. As a consequence, significant increases in yields are needed to ensure that an adequate food supply can be maintained in the future.
Here’s a sobering factoid: the amount of arable land has not changed appreciably for more than half a century. This looks like a big increase, but it’s only 10%. Meanwhile, the population has doubled, which means we’ve gone from about an acre of arable land per person to half an acre. And despite pockets here and there, the overall amount of arable land is not likely to increase much in the future because we’re losing it to urbanization, salinization, and desertification as fast as we’re adding it.
Desertification: Shortage of farmland China now has more than 2.62 million square kilometres of land under desertification, twice the amount of the total available farmland in China.
Agriculture currently consumes 70% of total global water withdrawals from rivers and aquifers, many are overexploited
Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on earth, around 24% has undergone human induced soil degradation
Agriculture directly contributes 10-12% of GHG emissions
We need a transition to sustainable agriculture which is:
Productive and generates income
Resilient
Resource efficient (including land),
Protects the environment
Maintains ecosystem services
but at the same time
Adapts to climate change
Reduces GHG emissions