The document discusses the ongoing financial crisis related to Greece's debt and the stability of the Euro. It provides an overview of recent market performance and drops from highs. Charts show recovery rates from past market crashes. The fundamentals section reviews the current state of major world economies, including GDP growth in the US, Europe, and Asia. In concluding, it emphasizes performing a thorough analysis of the relative economic impact, time horizon, risk capacity, and tolerance based on fundamentals and lessons from past crises.

1. Greece, Euro
and
You
David Mok, CFA
May 2010
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2. What Do We Do Now?
• Latest Crisis
• Greece, PIIGS
• Euro dollar
• Credit freeze
• Austerity measures throughout affected
economies
• Fear of contagion
• Sovereign Debt Risks
• Greece-Euro
• Another Meltdown?
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3. Market Perspective
2008 2009 YTD Return
MSCI WORLD -42% 27% -8%
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -34% 19% -2%
S&P 500 INDEX -38% 23% -3%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -41% 44% -3%
DAX INDEX -40% 24% -2%
FTSE 100 INDEX -31% 22% -5%
CAC 40 INDEX -43% 22% -11%
NIKKEI 225 -42% 19% -4%
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -65% 80% -22%
HANG SENG INDEX -48% 52% -9%
KOSPI INDEX -41% 50% -5%
STRAITS TIMES INDEX -49% 65% -4%
ALL ORDINARIES INDX -43% 33% -9%
BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -52% 81% -5%
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4. % Drop From Recent High
% Drop From
Recent High
MSCI WORLD -14.34%
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -11.57%
S&P 500 INDEX -13.19%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -16.00%
DAX INDEX -14.18%
FTSE 100 INDEX -13.12%
CAC 40 INDEX -16.55%
NIKKEI 225 -13.71%
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -26.37%
HANG SENG INDEX -14.81%
TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX -13.69%
KOSPI INDEX -11.38%
STRAITS TIMES OLD INDEX -11.13%
BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -12.13%
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5. Past Market Crashes
0%
-10%
-12%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-40% -40%
-29%
-36%
-31%
-38%
?
-50% -45%
-49%
-60% -54%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-89%
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-100%

6. PAST CRASHES - RATE OF RECOVERY
590%
490%
390%
290%
190%
90%
-10%
73
1
13
25
37
49
61
85
97
121
325
109
133
145
157
169
181
193
205
217
229
241
253
265
277
289
301
313
337
349
361
373
385
397
409
421
433
445
457
469
481
493
505
517
1929 Crash 1968 Crash 1972 Crash 1978 Crash
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1987 Crash 1990 Crash 2000 Crash 2007 Crash

7. PAST 8 CRASHES SINCE 1928 - RATE OF RECOVERY
130%
110%
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
121
385
109
133
145
157
169
181
193
205
217
229
241
253
265
277
289
301
313
325
337
349
361
373
397
409
421
433
445
457
469
481
493
505
517
1929 Crash 1968 Crash 1972 Crash 1978 Crash
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1987 Crash 1990 Crash 2000 Crash 2007 Crash

8. Fundamentals
• What is the state of world economies
currently?
– U.S.
• 1Q GDP rose 3.2% year-on-year,
• Housing starts rose to 626,000 vs. 605,000, an 18.8%
jump in multi-family starts,
• ISM manufacturing data came in at 59.6 in March vs.
56.3 expected indicating a rise in manufacturing activity,
• Retail sales beat forecasts rising 1.6% vs.1.0%
• In April, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000
– Euro
• UK Jobless Claims: - 27.1k vs. – 20.0K expected,
• EU GDP (QoQ): 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected
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9. Fundamentals
• What is the state of world economies
currently?
– Asia
• China reported a 1Q10 GDP expansion of 11.9 percent.
• Singapore recorded 15.5% yoy growth in Q1.
• Japan’s economy grew a relatively robust 1.2 per cent in
the first quarter.
• Taiwan reported first quarter yoy GDP growth of 13.27
per cent
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10. Fundamentals (GDP US$ Trillion)
16.0
14.6
14.0
12.0
10.0
Asian economies
8.0
6.0
4.9
4.3
4.0 Euro troubled economies
2.3
2.0 1.6
1.2 0.9
0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4
0.0
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11. Final Analysis
Current Market Perspective
Relative Economic Impact
Time Risk
Past Crashes
Horizon Capacity
Risk
Tolerance
Economic Fundamentals
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12. That’s it!
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