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The Wisdom Of Crowds



        CROWDSOURCING FOR PRODUCERS
   Blaine Graboyes – April 30, 2012 – The New School
The crowdsourcing phenomenon has had many success
stories in the entertainment industry in recent years, from
Yair Landau’s crowd-sourced animation project in 2008, to
  the phenomenal rise of Kickstarter for crowd funding.
   Now, crowdsourcing is being used by major brands to
make marketing decisions; motivate feature film and
 t.v. audiences, and create dedicated distribution channels.
This session will examine different angles of crowdsourcing.
How do you make
decisions from crowds?

       Metrics!
Let’s examine one of the
most powerful metrics...

       K-Factor
K-Factor = Crowds
K-Factor defines the
viral rate of social growth
How did CityVille                 How did Pinterest
reach 70MM players?              acquire 20MM new users?




   K-Factor
                                      How did Draw Something
                                        grab 35MM players?




                How did Instagram
                inspire 1B photos?
K-Factor   ...is also known as the viral coefficient and
            is borrowed from epidemiology where it
               describes the spread of actual viruses




                                      Image From: Spreading Patterns of Mobile Phone Viruses
K-Factor is the product of distribution and infection


        "Distribution" measures how many
        people, on average, a host will make
          contact with while still infectious


    K-Factor = Distribution x Infection


                            "Infection" measures how likely a
                          person is, on average, to also become
                         infected after contact with a viral host



                                                                Excerpt From: Wikipedia
K-Factor is a product of the rates of distribution and infection for an app (or virus)

                           K-Factor Rules Of Thumb
                  "Distribution" measures how many
                  people, on average, a host will make
                    contact with while still infectious
                                    If K-Factor is....


        < 1	 than	 	 your in decline and needx Infection
           K-Factor = Distribution to make improvements
        = 1
 than
 
 your in a ‘steady state’ with no growth
        > 1	 than	 	 you are experiencing some degree of viral growtha
                                     "Infection" measures how likely
        ≥ 1.5 than

 you are minting your own gold coins to) also become
                                   person is, on average, :
                                   infected after contact with a viral host
Example Of
Dramatic Growth
  via K-Factor

CityVille Growth
In One Month!




                   Data From: Silicon Alley Insider
Example Of
Distribution Activity

40-60% Of Pinners
 Are Active Hosts!




                        Data From: RJ Metrics
Example Of
Dramatic Growth
  via K-Factor

Draw Something
 In One Month!




                  Data From: AppData.com
Example Of
 Dramatic Growth
   via K-Factor

      Instagram
vs. Facebook & Flickr




                        Data From: mattryall.net
If you are not currently
 tracking these metrics
  STOP EVERYTHING
 and implement a basic
metrics program today!


                           Sketch From: VisionHelp
Fundraising        Donation      Donors           Donors
$59,000,000 ÷        $10     =   5,900,000        5,900,000
                                                     ÷
Participants       Actions       Contacts         Contacts
  450,000      x      10     =   4,500,000        4,500,000
                                                     =

            K-Factor = Distribution x Infection     1.3
Fundraising        Donation          Donors                               Donors
$59,000,000 ÷        $10     =      5,900,000                             5,900,000
                                                                             ÷
Participants       Actions          Contacts                              Contacts
  450,000      x      10     =      4,500,000                             4,500,000
                                                                              =
                           Each Distribution Resulted In 1.3 Infections
            K-Factor = Distribution x Infection                             1.3
            K-Factor = 1 x 1.3
            K-Factor = 1.3




                                                                           Example From: Movember.com
“If you don’t have any facts,
      we’ll just use my opinion.”
– Jim Barksdale (former president and CEO of Netscape)




                                       Excerpt From: Data Driven Decisions For Startups
blaineglobal
For Tips On Improving K-Factor Download:
       blaineglobal.com/metrics.pdf

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The Wisdom Of Crowds

  • 1. The Wisdom Of Crowds CROWDSOURCING FOR PRODUCERS Blaine Graboyes – April 30, 2012 – The New School
  • 2. The crowdsourcing phenomenon has had many success stories in the entertainment industry in recent years, from Yair Landau’s crowd-sourced animation project in 2008, to the phenomenal rise of Kickstarter for crowd funding. Now, crowdsourcing is being used by major brands to make marketing decisions; motivate feature film and t.v. audiences, and create dedicated distribution channels. This session will examine different angles of crowdsourcing.
  • 3. How do you make decisions from crowds? Metrics!
  • 4. Let’s examine one of the most powerful metrics... K-Factor
  • 6. K-Factor defines the viral rate of social growth
  • 7. How did CityVille How did Pinterest reach 70MM players? acquire 20MM new users? K-Factor How did Draw Something grab 35MM players? How did Instagram inspire 1B photos?
  • 8. K-Factor ...is also known as the viral coefficient and is borrowed from epidemiology where it describes the spread of actual viruses Image From: Spreading Patterns of Mobile Phone Viruses
  • 9. K-Factor is the product of distribution and infection "Distribution" measures how many people, on average, a host will make contact with while still infectious K-Factor = Distribution x Infection "Infection" measures how likely a person is, on average, to also become infected after contact with a viral host Excerpt From: Wikipedia
  • 10. K-Factor is a product of the rates of distribution and infection for an app (or virus) K-Factor Rules Of Thumb "Distribution" measures how many people, on average, a host will make contact with while still infectious If K-Factor is.... < 1 than your in decline and needx Infection K-Factor = Distribution to make improvements = 1 than your in a ‘steady state’ with no growth > 1 than you are experiencing some degree of viral growtha "Infection" measures how likely ≥ 1.5 than you are minting your own gold coins to) also become person is, on average, : infected after contact with a viral host
  • 11. Example Of Dramatic Growth via K-Factor CityVille Growth In One Month! Data From: Silicon Alley Insider
  • 12. Example Of Distribution Activity 40-60% Of Pinners Are Active Hosts! Data From: RJ Metrics
  • 13. Example Of Dramatic Growth via K-Factor Draw Something In One Month! Data From: AppData.com
  • 14. Example Of Dramatic Growth via K-Factor Instagram vs. Facebook & Flickr Data From: mattryall.net
  • 15. If you are not currently tracking these metrics STOP EVERYTHING and implement a basic metrics program today! Sketch From: VisionHelp
  • 16. Fundraising Donation Donors Donors $59,000,000 ÷ $10 = 5,900,000 5,900,000 ÷ Participants Actions Contacts Contacts 450,000 x 10 = 4,500,000 4,500,000 = K-Factor = Distribution x Infection 1.3
  • 17. Fundraising Donation Donors Donors $59,000,000 ÷ $10 = 5,900,000 5,900,000 ÷ Participants Actions Contacts Contacts 450,000 x 10 = 4,500,000 4,500,000 = Each Distribution Resulted In 1.3 Infections K-Factor = Distribution x Infection 1.3 K-Factor = 1 x 1.3 K-Factor = 1.3 Example From: Movember.com
  • 18. “If you don’t have any facts, we’ll just use my opinion.” – Jim Barksdale (former president and CEO of Netscape) Excerpt From: Data Driven Decisions For Startups
  • 19. blaineglobal For Tips On Improving K-Factor Download: blaineglobal.com/metrics.pdf