2015.04.02 Deconstructing FUD in our Technological Future - UCSD

Deconstructing FUD in our Technological Future
Blair Baker
Chief Technology Evangelist
bbaker@1903Solutions.com
@TechsN2Execs
Nothing to Fear - Just Click Here!
Village West Building – 5th Fl
April 2, 2015
9 AM

A Little About Me
Blair Baker Chief Technology Evangelist BBaker@1903Solutions.com @TechsN2Execs 858.431.9980

Cognitive Biases
 People tend to exaggerate the spectacular risks and down
play common risks.
 The Unknown is perceived to be riskier than the familiar.
 Personalized risks are perceived to be riskier than
anonymous risks.
 People underestimate risks in situation where they have
some form of control and overestimate the risks outside
their control and they will rationalize their decisions.
 People are really, really bad with risk assessment when
there are very large numbers, very low probabilities, poor
understanding of risks involved.
 People have a confirmation bias.
Source: Bruce Schneier – Harvard Law

Hype, Momentum, and Trends

Timeline of The Familiar
Web 0.0 – Developing the internet
Web 1.0 – The shopping carts & static web
Web 4.0 – Open, Linked and Intelligent Web
Web 3.0 – The semantic executing web
Web 2.0 – The writing and participating web
Source: Midexigner

Tools to Track Hype - Gartner

Drivers of Change to Familiar
Source:
Reuven Gorsht

Once Unfamiliar (c. 1993)

Went online - $0
Took their training -$0
Created a secured
computing Instance
complete with servers,
network, access control,
object and block storage,
load balancing, and
relational database in less
than one hour - $0
Seeing how far it can scale
in a secured, controlled,
automated, and cost
efficient manner – priceless!
How can we compete with
$0.01/GB for backup/archive
storage?
Real World Becoming Familiar Example

IT Familiar (c. 1995)
Traditional IT (all performed Inhouse)
• CIO reporting directly to CEO
• Proprietary Systems
• Talent Scarcity makes IT strategic
• Homegrown Knowledge Workers
• Several Programming languages
• Physical Data Center
• Physical infrastructure
• Infrastructure Engineers
• Help Desk/Call Center
• PBX/Telephony
• Rigid Change Control
• Pretty Clear Career Paths to CIO
• Deep Technical Skill Sets
• Large CapEx budget
• Large OpEx budget
• Overall: Strategic Advantage

IT Familiar Today (2010-15)
Traditional IT (all performed Inhouse)
• CIO reporting directly to CEO
• Proprietary Systems
• Talent Scarcity makes IT strategic
• Homegrown Knowledge Workers
• Several Programming languages
• Physical Data Center
• Physical infrastructure
• Infrastructure Engineers
• Help Desk/Call Center
• PBX/Telephony
• Rigid Change Control
• Career Paths to CIO
• Deep Technical Skill Sets
• Large CapEx budget
• Large OpEx budget
• Overall: Strategic Advantage
IT (trending to performed outsource)
• CIO reporting to CxO
• More Open Systems
• Talent ubiquity make Commoditization
• Outsourced Knowledge Workers
• Offshored standardized programming
• Outsourced/colo Data Center
• Virtual or Cloud infrastructure
• Fewer or virtual Infrastructure Engineers
• Outsourced Help Desk/Call Center
• VoIP/virtual PBX/Telephony
• DevOps Change Control
• Limited Career Paths – Rise of Siloed
Specialist
• Fewer Deep Technical Skill Sets on site
• Significantly smaller CapEx budget
• Smaller OpEx budget
• Overall: Competitive Parity

Seismic Shifts in the Familiar
 Pace, Speed, Expectations
 Changing Workplaces
 New Management - Different demographic/generation
 Rapidly Shifting Technologies
 Rapidly Changing R=G Demographics
 Offshoring, Outsourcing, Cloud
 Mobile Applications and Mobile Technologies
 Cyber-Crime/Security & Forensics
 Networking Internal/External Connections
 CIOs may be Information Brokers – Vendor Management

Co-worker Demographic Shift
Source: HP Enterprise 20/20 Vol 1 http://h22154.www2.hp.com/

The Internet of Everything as is Today
Source: John Matherly, Shodan

Every Feel Like You are Falling Behind?
 Many differing definitions, but ultimately it is a radical shift from Business
As Usual, the “Status Quo,” or the Familiar.
Historical Backgound Perspective on Change
 Agriculture Revolution – 10,000BC
 Industrial Revolution – circa 1800s
 Digital Revolution – circa 1980s forward
 Informational Revolution/New Digital Era (now)
 World’s Knowledge Base Rate of Change is increasing exponentially
 It took it 1500 years to double from 1AD – 1500
 It doubled again in 250 years from 1500-1750
 It doubled again in 150 years from 1750-1900
 It is now doubling every two years & increasing.
 “A full 90 percent of all the data in the world has been generated over the
last two years” – Source(s): ScienceDaily; SINTEF; IBM 5/22/2013

Shifts in Pace
“60% of the best jobs in the next ten years have not
been invented yet”
- Thomas Frey
“65% of Kindergarteners will grow up to have jobs
that do not exist today”
- Irma Wallace, WagePoint
“Half of the technology that College Freshmen learn
will be outdated by their Junior Year ”
- Irma Wallace, WagePoint

Demographic Shifts in Co-Workers
Today Millennials are one third of the workforce
By 2020 Millennials will be one half of, and the
Gen Z Digital Natives will be entering, the
workforce or attending college
By 2030 Millennials will be almost three quarters
and considering retirement while Gen Z Digital
Natives will begin hitting age thirty and in full stride
in the workplace.

Why Do Millennials Matter?

Social Media Perception Explained
Twitter – I’m eating a #donut
Facebook – I like donuts
Foursquare – This is where I eat donuts
Instagram – Here’s a Vintage photo of my donut
YouTube – Here I am eating a donut
LinkedIn – My skills include donut eating
Pinterest – Here’s a donut recipe
LastFM – Now listening to “Donuts”
G+ - I’m a google employee who eats donuts

Source: Hitachi Data Systems http://web.idg.no/app/web/online/Event/cioforum/2013/bigdata/Kenneth_thomas.pdf
- IoE

Reality vs Feeling Check

HR Performance Review - Skills
Source:
Reuven Gorsht

Soon to be Familiar Careers
Daniel Burrus
 Mobile HW/SW Services
 Remote Visual Communications
 Social Business Enterprise Mgmt
 Cyber Security & Forensics
 Additive Manufacturing/3DPrinting
 Gamification of Education
 Cloud Services and Virtualization
 Big Data & Real-Time Analysis
 Intelligent E-Personal Assistants
 3D Web
 Connected Intelligence Objects
 Advanced Robotics & Automation
Sparks&Honey
 Drone Driver
 Personal Digital Curator
 Digital Detox Therapist
 Corporate Disorganizer
 Curiosity Tutor
 Alternate Currency
Speculator
 Privacy Consultant
 3D Printing Handyman
 Digital Death Manager
 Skype Stager

Next Steps
1. View Vendors as knowledge/Info source
2. Look beyond Status Quo to Innovate
3. Refresh Technical Awareness/skills
4. Network, Network, Network
5. Invest some time/effort in one Social Media Platform
6. Eat Lunch with/listen to the Business
7. Build Your Brand - Contribute exp/lessons learned
8. Communicate Successes (IT Marketing)
9. Hire/find/be a coach or mentor
10.Mentor Millennials/Listen to Digital Natives

Final Thoughts

There are far better things ahead than we leave behind
- CS Lewis

Following the Money –
Shifting Middle Class and Purchasing Power
2009
• United States 21%
• Japan 8%
• Germany 6%
• France 4%
• United Kingdom 4%
• Russia 4%
• China 4%
• Italy 3%
• Mexico 3%
• Brazil 3%

2009
• Japan 8%
• Germany 6%
• France 4%
• Russia 4%
• China 4%
• Italy 3%
• Mexico 3%
• Brazil 3%
2020
• China 13%
• India 11%
• Japan 6%
• Germany 4%
• Russia 3%
• France 3%
• Indonesia 3%
• Mexico 3%

2009
• Japan 8%
• Germany 6%
• France 4%
• Russia 4%
• China 4%
• Italy 3%
• Mexico 3%
• Brazil 3%
2020
• China 13%
• India 11%
• Japan 6%
• Germany 4%
• Russia 3%
• France 3%
• Indonesia 3%
• Mexico 3%
2030
• India 23%
• China 18%
• Indonesia 4%
• Japan 4%
• Russia 3%
• Germany 2%
• Mexico 2%
• Brazil 2%
• France 2%

Phase I
• Determine where your career IS vulnerable
• Find the Perception of your organization
• Mend or improve relationships w/Business
– Eat lunch with the business once a week
– Have bagels with the technical support staff
• $peak in the language of the busine$$
– Know how your business makes money
– Know your fixed, variable, & TCO costs for each app
& service
• Hire/find a coach or mentor
• Mentor Millennials/Listen to Digital Natives
Next Steps - Detail

Phase II
• Work to be innovative with the business
– Be prepared and positioned to jettison all IT that’s not
core
– Manage IT performance versus risk
– Focus on the “I” in “IT”
– Delegate more and utilize free agents
– Balance privacy/security with personalization and
access
• Repeat continuously
Next Steps - Detail

2015.04.02 Deconstructing FUD in our Technological Future - UCSD

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2015.04.02 Deconstructing FUD in our Technological Future - UCSD