SaareMaaPäevad 2011 / Saaremaa Ettevõtluskonverents - Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast Mõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud

1. Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast
Mõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud
September 2011

2. How can Saaremaa entrepreneurs position
themselves for the future?
World
Estonia
Saaremaa
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3. World trends - Population
World Population, billions
12
FORECAST
Emerging countries
10
Developed countries
8
6
4
2
0
Source: United Nations
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4. World trends – Economic activity
Economies' share of world GDP
90%
FORECAST
80%
Developing countries
70%
60%
% of the total
50%
40%
30%
Emerging countries
20%
10%
0%
Source: IMF, Trigon
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5. World trends - Environmental change
Food supply challenge
Fresh water supply challenge
Potential Impact of Climate Change by 2050
• Min -14%
• Mid -30%
• Max -46%
Source: United Nations Environmental Programme - The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.
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6. World trends – Conclusions
Where does Estonia fit in on the global scale?
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7. Estonia trends - Population
Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2000
Source: Statistics Estonia
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8. Estonia trends - Population
Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2011
Source: Statistics Estonia
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9. Estonia trends – Population
Population density
Source: Statistics Estonia
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10. Estonia trends – Economic activity
Share of national GDP, %
From 1996 to 2008 53.1 59.6% 10.6 8.1%
1.9 1.8%
8.7 10.4%
Source: Statistics Estonia
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11. Estonia trends – Conclusions
Where does Saaremaa fit in given Estonia’s positioning
on the global scale and its local (dis)advantages?
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12. Saaremaa – Competitive analysis
Advantages:
The sunniest part of Estonia
The lowest rainfall
Low air pollution
Cultural heritage
Island brand
Disadvantages:
Logistics
Labour
Source: Statistics Estonia
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13. Saaremaa – Business opportunities
Tourism
Avoid mass
Niche / exclusive
Agribusiness
Organic agriculture
Related processing
Brand - Saaremaa
Other niche
E.g. Saare Paat
Source: Statistics Estonia
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14. Saaremaa after 20 years: My forecast
Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2008 Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2030
Agriculture
5%
More services
Less industry / More of the
Industry
Services industry will be food
32%
63% processing related
More specialized agriculture
(esp. organic)
Source: Statistics Estonia
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15. Saaremaa: My recommendations
Support niche high-value tourism opportunities
Support niche high-value agriculture / food processing opportunities
Be open to local /outside entrepreneurs with interesting new ideas
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