The closer we get to the elections, the more debates come to fruition. The political scenario is one of uncertainty and a fertile field for the most varied analysis!
Our March newsletter goes on with the series "Presidential Candidates" with the polemic Jair Bolsonaro, besides many international, local, economic and political analysis.
In this edition, we also bring a bit of the day to day of the professional of government relations, with information for a better understanding of the practice.
Always with the aim of stimulating the best debate, we wish everyone an excellent reading!
2. Burson-Marsteller l Public Affairs
An intersecting agency that, through the understanding of the political environment,
assists clients of different sectors in the protection and/or promotion of their businesses,
managing their influence in a sustainable way.
The Burson-Marsteller standard is responsible for the development of highly customized
projects, according to the needs of each client, developing strategies for various economic
sectors, especially those heavily regulated by the government.
Contributors to this edition
Index
Year 2 | Nº 03 | March
Luciana
Lemgruber
Fernanda
Xavier
Isabela
Girotto
Isabela
Macêdo
Anna
Paula Losi
Allana
Rodrigues
Bruno
Traversin
02 Gov. Affairs in Focus | Will lobby regulation combat corruption
03
04
06
07
09
10
12
Politics| Presidential candidates: Jair Bolsonaro and the
Spectrum of Integralism
Politics |Ministerial Reform: governability and electoral dispute
Economy | Ministerial Reform: governability and electoral
dispute
International Relations | 8th World Water Forum and the
Brazilian return to the map of the major world political events
International Relations | World Economic Forum for Latin
America: the debate focused on emerging countries
International Relations | The new South America and the new
president of Chile
Events Calendar
11 Economic Data
3. From time to time the regulation of the lobby comes back to the discussion at the Brazilian
Congress, usually bombarded by the diverse news of corruption cases and traffic of influence
that permeate our daily life and the headlines of the main Brazilian newspapers. And, in the pre-
election period, Carlos Zarattini (PT / SP) has voted on the bill (PL 1202/2007), which intends to
define and regulate the Brazil.
This discussion is not new in the Brazilian parliament. By the time of the Senator Marco Maciel,
this issue was discussed, as well as in the Executive Power, which also tried to regulate the
performance of lobbyists with government authorities. But so far, only the registration of
lobbying activities in the official cadaster of the Ministry of Labor, that establishes the
occupations recognized by the government, has been achieved.
For the truth, the lobby exists only in democratic societies, because in totalitarian regimes what
exists is traffic in influence, favoring. In this way, the strengthening and legitimation, as well as
the knowledge of the society about the lobby, are of great importance for the strengthening of
Brazilian democracy.
It is critical, for this process, to understand that there is no lobby for the good or lobby for the
evil. What exists in many cases is the distortion of the professional, through the commission of
crime, foreseen in the Brazilian legislation, as traffic of influence, money laundering and / or
corruption, crimes that can be committed by any professional, of any occupational field, any
which does not follow the ethical standards and values of a democratic society.
The risks of restrictive regulation are the creation of obstacles to groups with less access to
decision makers, such as small associations or minority advocacy. It is also important to be
vigilant so that regulation does not "invent" mechanisms that allow professionals of bad nature to
benefit from the difficulties that will be created for those who act strictly within due process of
law.
Excessive rules could increase the cost of the activity, as well as create high costs for state
control of information. There is a chance that information from the regulations is not well worked
out by public agencies, and too much bureaucracy does not encourage lobbying professionals to
share their information. This time, it could be repeated in Brazil the same thing that has
happened in the USA, many lobbyists would cease to be entitled as such.
The regulation of lobbying activity in Brazil should begin gradually so as to enable it to actually
be implemented, and the first step would be to create incentive mechanisms and punishment for
the accreditation of lobbyists, whether autonomous or contracted, informing which segments and
companies are being represented, and which interests are defended. Transparency is the first
step in combating and restraining illicit acts.
Finally, it should be emphasized that, in order to the regulation of lobby in Brazil being effective,
excessive and unnecessary bureaucracies cannot be created, as it would lead to a lack of
transparency and an increase in professional dissidence.
Government Affairs in Focus
Will lobby regulation combat
corruption?
02
4. A minimum level of regulation of the lobby in Brazil is fundamental for the activity to be carried
out with a greater degree of transparency, legitimacy and, therefore, to allow the construction of
public policies of better quality.
However, it is impossible to say that lobby regulation will be sufficient to curb the practice of
corruption, since corruption is not the result of lobby. It is believed, however, that the regulation
could collaborate, in agreement with other measures already adopted, such as the Empresa
Limpa Law, to restrain and impede illegal practices.
Anna Paula Losi
03
Presidential candidates: Jair Bolsonaro
and the Spectrum of Integralism
Government Relations in Focus
Politics
More than a reproduction of the recent nationalist movements, as North American politics headed
by President Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro's pre-electoral strategy resembles, although it seems
like mere propaganda, the integralist movements of the early twentieth century. Of traditionalist
and conservative inspiration, Bolsonaro's speech is against the modernist and ideological lines of
secularism.
Bolsonaro, a former army captain and politician, serves as Representative since 1991. His
performance in the polls, which points him as the second candidate with the highest number of
votes, is a reflection of his conservative positioning based on the state-family connection, whose
religious principles permeate political decisions.
The political scenario favors Bolsonaro due to the spraying of candidates, many postulants would
distribute the votes so that he would not have to concentrate many votes to arrive at an eventual
second round. However, it is his public safety agenda that has increased his reach and
identification with much of his voters. Bolsonaro's armes discourse gains momentum in a context
of widespread violence, given such episodes as the federal intervention in Rio de Janeiro and the
events that triggered it.
Other features of Bolsonaro give rise to what resembles the integralism of the 1930s. In addition
to his military education and therefore rigid, liked even by voters who do not openly admit to
choose him, the representative is considered a pariah for the traditional media. Fervent critic of
the most popular media, which he classifies as socialists, it is in social networks that Bolsonaro
reaches a large part of his voters.
His supporters point out his authenticity by openly contesting progressive banners such as the
defense of minority rights as homosexuals. Another ultra-nationalist slant debated and defended
by Bolsonaro is the restriction on immigration. Just as integralist ideology excels at preserving
local culture, the traditions.
5. Although considered a politician with limited articulation, and without great achievements
registered with regard to the approval of bills in the House of Representatives, the candidacy of
Jair Bolsonaro will have relevance and influence, even without winning, the presidential race. We
must consider that, just like Trump's surprising leadership for the presidency, the same can
happen here. Bolsonaro's hard-line positioning has resonated well with the electorate that yearns
for "real" candidates or, in other words, reflecting more conservative thinking.
Allana Rodrigues
Politics
04
April 7 marks six months before the 2018 elections and it is the deadline given by the electoral
courts for those who wish to compete if they to leave their current positions in order to be
eligible. This rule will force President Michel Temer to have a critical ministerial reform, as 12 of
his 29 ministers are expected to leave office. The president will not only have to make the reform
thinking of contemplating his base in Congress, but also thinking in the presidential race that he
intends to run.
Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles will join Temer’s party next week, seeking support to be the
name of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) for the presidential race. For this to happen,
Meirelles depends on the president himself, who has until June to decide whether he’ll run for
reelection. Until then, the minister will try to work on his candidacy with his new fellow party
members, but he does not rule out composing the role of vice-president of Temer in case the
party maintains his name as a candidate. Meirelles also seeks to maintain his influence over the
Ministry of Finance, defending the names of Eduardo Guardia, the current executive-secretary of
the pulp, or Mansueto Almeida, secretary of fiscal monitoring, to replace him in the command of
the ministry.
The vacancy also interested Senator Romero Jucá (MDB/RR), who would be trying to appoint
Dyogo Oliveira, current Minister of Planning and his political protege, to succeed Meirelles.
However, the appointment was not well received by the Meirelles team, who worries about the
influence of the senator on the ministry affairs’ and promised to leave the ministry in case
Oliveira took over the position. With the impasse, Temer is expected to choose one of the names
indicated by Meirelles.
In this scenario, Dyogo evaluates a candidacy as federal deputy in Tocantins, by the MDB, and
with the support of Congressman Carlos Gaguim (MDB/TO). In addition, Dyogo could also
replace Paulo Rabello de Castro at the National Bank for Development (BNDES), who will leave
office to run for the presidency. If he leaves the Ministry of Planning, Meirelles has defended that
Mansueto Almeida takes over. This would give direct influence to the Meirelles in the
government's economic team, while he attempts to consolidate his name as an option for the
presidential run.
Ministerial Reform: governability and
electoral dispute
6. The scenario also remains undefined in the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and
Communications (MCTIC) and in the Ministry of Education (MEC). In both cases, the ministers
have already signaled the departure from offices, but no concrete definition for which posts they
will run in the 2018 elections. In the case of Gilberto Kassab (PSD/SP), Minister of Science,
Technology, Innovation and Communications, the main option is to run as candidate for vice-
mayor of São Paulo with João Dória (PSDB/SP), but there is still the possibility of being a
candidate for the Senate. There is no substitute indicated for the time being, although it is
believed that the executive secretary of the ministry, Elton Santa Fé Zacarias, should take office.
Mendonça Filho (DEM/PE), Minister of Education, still hasn’t settled if he will run for the state
government or will try a reelection as a federal deputy or even if he will try a position in the
Senate. However, like Kassab, Mendonça is expected to appoint MEC's executive secretary, Maria
Helena Guimarães de Castro, to succeed him. Another name for the office is Senator Marta
Suplicy (MDB/SP), whose term ends this year. She would be willing to give up reelection to take
over the Ministry, a longtime wish.
In case Mendonça decides to run for the Pernambuco government, he will face another minister
of president Temer, Fernando Coelho Filho, who is currently in charge of the Ministry of Mines
and Energy, where the substitute is also not defined, and Executive Secretary Paulo Pedrosa is
unlikely to assume the Ministry. The following ministers will also be leaving their posts until April
7: Sarney Filho (Environment), Helder Barbalho (National Integration), Osmar Terra (Social
Development), Leonardo Picciani (Sport), Maurício Quintella Lessa (Transport) and Marx Beltrão
(Tourism).
In the Ministry of Health, the Progressive Party (PP) faces a stalemate to replace Ricardo Barros,
who will leave the ministry to seek reelection as a federal deputy. The president of the party,
Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP/PI) had brought to President Michel Temer the name of Gilberto
Occhi, current president of Caixa Econômica Federal, a lawyer and former minister of National
Integration. However, the president wanted to keep Occhi at Caixa, avoiding another open seat
in the government to define. That way, the PP will have to find a new name until next week, a
difficult task considering that until now they have found it difficult to find a name that both
pleases the party and does not want to run for the 2018 elections. Meanwhile, Minister Barros
awaits the definition which will allow his exoneration from the office and can return to the House,
with expectations of assuming the chair of the Congress’ Budget Commission (CMO). Although it
is the second-largest party at the base of President Michel Temer, with the possibility of being
the largest at the end of the partisan window, the PP has already declared support for the
candidacy of Deputy Rodrigo Maia (DEM/RJ) to the presidency.
While trying to balance his governability with his electoral desires, Temer will face challenges to
rebuild the Esplanade, as those who leave office are mostly trying to keep their influence on the
respective offices, which should give little scope for new ministers to print their brands, with new
public policies.
Isabela Macêdo
Politics
05
7. Economy
06
North American surcharge to steel and
aluminum: Trigger for Trade War?
The measure began to be valid on the 23 March and the rates represent a very significant
increase, while steel was 0.9% and aluminum 2%.
In his speech, Trump said that some countries, such as Mexico and Canada, would not be
overtaxed because of their participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The US president also stressed that the exemption from collection could overflow to other
countries, especially those who have a "good" relationship with the United States.
In this context, the high economic impact for various countries has led to several measures being
announced: the European Union, for example, has announced its intention to apply to the World
Trade Organization (WTO) if its 28 members are not excluded of the collection, given the
protectionism of the American action, and announced that there is also the possibility of taxing
some products exported by the United States, such as orange juice.
As for the Brazilian market, the economic consequences would also be gigantic. According to the
Steel Institute Brazil and the World Steel Association, more than 32% of Brazilian steel exports
last year, totaling U$ 2.5 billion, went to the United States, making it the main importer of
Brazilian metal. Historically, Brazil is the second largest exporter of steel to the US and sales to
the country represent a third of Brazilian exports of the product.
Faced with the losses to Brazil, the Foreign Affairs ministers, Aloysio Nunes; and Industry,
Foreign Trade and Services, Marcos Jorge, issued a joint statement on the same day of the
announcement of the surcharge, demonstrating "great concern" over the decision of the Trump
government. It is worth mentioning that Ibovespa fell, as well as the shares of Vale, Gerdau and
Usiminas.
In this scenario, the Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) and Brazilian steel
companies met, in recent months, with Brazilian and US authorities in an attempt to reverse the
rule, given the significant economic and social impact of foreign exchange losses and risks of
employability.
Since the inauguration of the current
President of the United States, Donald
Trump, US policy has become increasingly
unpredictable and controversial. In this
scenario, Trump announced, at the
beginning of the month (08), the imposition
of a surcharge of 25% and 10% for all steel
and aluminum, respectively, imported by the
United States . The justification, according
to the President, is based on the quest to
protect American industry because of the
low competitiveness.
8. The Brazil, as highlighted by President Michel Temer at the opening of the World Economic
Forum for Latin America, bet on the dialogue with the United States to try to remove Brazil from
the list of countries that would have to pay a surcharge.
Last Friday, Trump signed a new decree that exempts Argentina, Australia, Brazil, European
Union and South Korea from the new rule. Thus, rates would return to 0.9% and 2%, as
previously. The decision is temporary and the US government will define a definitive position by
May.
It is worth noting that, despite the historic "pacifying" diplomacy of Brazil, in a time of election
and an attempt of protagonism, the President of House of Representative, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-
RJ), considered the drafting of a legislative decree that, if approved, taxing the entire importation
of American ethanol into Brazil, as a way of retaliating against the Americans. However, with the
exemption announced, the action was suspended.
Isabela Girotto
In February, the 8th World Water Forum took place in Brasilia, a meeting held every three years
in a different country. Its first edition took place in 1997 in Morocco and the last in 2015 in South
Korea. This was the first time in South America, organized by the World Water Council, the
Ministry of Environment, represented by the National Agency of Water (ANA), and by the
government of the Federal District, represented by the Federal District Water, Energy and
Sanitation Agency of the Federal District (Adasa).
The opening of the World Forum brought together 12 heads of state, government and high
international authorities, as well as representatives of international organizations such as the
United Nations, European Union, World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Community of
Portuguese Speaking Countries and Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development.
As a major differential of the 8th edition was the participation of the Judiciary, representing the
decision-making body on disputes involving water resources. The Forum of Judges and
Prosecutors was attended by 83 judges, prosecutors and experts from 57 countries. In the end,
this conference produced a document called the "Brasilia Charter," which recognizes access to
water as a fundamental right and presents ten guidelines that will help magistrates around the
world to inform decisions to ensure the population's access to water.
Economy
07
8th World Water Forum and the Brazilian
return to the map of the major world
political events
International Relations
9. The Global Public Ministry Institute also released a final document that was signed by 9
countries: the "Declaration of the Public Prosecutor's Office on the Right to Water," which
determines the fundamental principles for the performance of Public Prosecutors in the subject
and places water as Human Right, necessary for the promotion of other individual, social and
cultural Human Rights, and a logical presupposition for the respect of the dignity of the people.
Regarding the results of the meeting, the Conference of Ministers approved the "Urgent call for
decisive action on water", a document prepared by 56 countries that establishes priorities in
facing the global challenges of access to water and sanitation.
There was also a "Parliamentary Declaration" produced by parliamentarians from 20 nations,
which reinforces the importance of sharing innovations, experiences, public policies, legal
frameworks and good practices developed in each participating country to ensure water use
efficiency, as well as highlighting the commitment to the allocation of resources to guarantee
water security; and the "Call for Action of Local and Regional Governments on Water and
Sanitation in Brasilia" launched by 150 regional authorities - mayors, state governors and state
deputies, with 21 recommendations to overcome the local challenges of access to water and
sanitation.
The 8th World Water Forum had a great impact in the Brazilian and international media. During
the event there were about 15 thousand mentions to the Forum in the written press and a wide
coverage of media vehicles from around the world. Senator Eunicio Oliveira, president of the
Federal Senate of Brazil, stressed that the "Forum is an opportunity for the preparation of
proposals and the generation of new ideas about the challenge that the future holds in the
management of water resources." Senator Jorge Viana, chair of the Temporary Subcommittee on
the World Water Forum, who represented parliaments, also stressed the importance of ensuring
that water is treated as a human right.
The event received great participation from society, through the "Fair" and the "Village Citizen"
which aimed to educate and raise awareness of local society, especially young audiences.
Simultaneously with the 8th World Forum, it was happening, also in Brasilia, the World
Alternative Water Forum which questioned the legitimacy of the World Water Forum as a political
space to promote discussion on global issues.
The result of these days of debates, in addition to the official documents signed, is the
resumption of the Brazilian projection in the international political space, even if in a timid
manner. The Brazilian edition has confirmed itself as one of the largest ever organized, drawing
attention to new technologies in sustainable water management, such as drones and smartphone
applications, as well as to water waste and the need of society, together with the State and the
private sector , begin to prioritize the conscious use of water sources. On the last day of the
Forum, Senegal was confirmed as host of the 9th edition, which will take place in 2021 and will
have the theme "Water Security". For Brazil, the main message was that from the Minister of
Water of Morocco: that the country "is badly accustomed to having plenty of water", considering
that even with 10% of the planet's fresh water, one in every six Brazilian cities runs water risk.
Nara Andrade e Bruno Traversin
International Relations
08
10. Considered a region of great developing countries, Latin America today faces a crisis that is
increasing, more and more, the social inequalities already present in the area. This year,
especially, the debates around Latin American countries become more frequent due to the
presidential elections that will be able to redesign the political and diplomatic conjuncture of the
region.
In this context, the city of São Paulo hosted, for the third time, the World Economic Forum for
Latin America (WEF), whose main theme was "Latin America at a turning point: forming a new
narrative". The event was attended by regional leaders, representing Latin American countries;
and the joint presidents of the Forum for Latin America, a group formed by the leaders of
companies with high relevance in the region.
During the opening ceremony, the Mayor of São Paulo, João Doria, affirmed that the city is the
largest consumption center in the region and, with the resumption of economic growth, Brazil
could invest in the regional economy. Geraldo Alckmin, Governor of the State, defended the
commercial opening and criticized protectionist measures.
Representatives of the industrial sector defended the social role that companies must assume,
although they have difficulties to keep their businesses competitive in the current Brazilian
economic scenario. Luiza Trajano, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Magazine Luiza, said
that raising employee compensation would bring about a positive change of behavior for the
economy.
Regarding technological innovation, participants agreed that Latin American countries need to
adapt to the new realities of automation and artificial intelligence. The head of the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for Latin America Unit, Ángel Melguizo, said
that the region is deficient in skilled labor, which further deferred the region's technological and
industrial development.
The closing of the discussion was marked by the commitment, by the leaders and formulators of
public policies, of solutions and practices to be worked with the objective of giving greater
support to the development of startups and new technologies. Also, it was pointed out the need
for political leaders to listen to citizens, to identify the main changes desired by the electorate. In
an environment of heated political negotiation in the face of the Latin American elections, only
after the elections will it be possible to define the new - or not - political map drawn in the
region.
Fernanda Xavier
International Relations
09
World Economic Forum for Latin America:
the debate focused on emerging countries
11. The Chilean scenario seems to repeat itself. For the second consecutive time, the conservative
Sebastián Piñera succeeds Socialist Michelle Bachelet in the presidency. The first time came in
2010, when the politician was elected to his first term.
In these elections the Chileans had to decide whether to take a right turn with Piñera or to
maintain the political profile with Guillier, who belongs to the center-left axis, the same political
group of Bachelet, that dominated almost the entire democratic phase of the country. But the
truth is that change would not be radical in any of the cases. Even Piñera, in the final stretch,
indirectly accepted the biggest controversies between his ideologies and those of the former
president, especially regarding the gratuity of university education and the repeal of the law that
allows abortion in three specific cases.
A PhD in economics from Harvard University, Sebastián Piñera is a very successful entrepreneur
with very conservative political thoughts. Elected with the support of the far right and center-left,
the new president has as one of his challenges, finding a center path, promoting conciliation
between both sides. Even for not having a majority in Congress.
The new Chilean parliament was formed shortly before the inauguration of Piñera, and has a
strongly fragmented environment. The granddaughter of Salvador Allende, Maya Fernandez
Allende, was elected president of the Chamber of Deputies. Another socialist, Carlos Montes, was
elected president of the Senate and, in this capacity (quality?), Was in charge of running the
inauguration ceremony.
Without an absolute majority in Congress, the president must have a complicated management,
more focused on the implementation of public policies than in legislative production. Besides the
great challenge of governing with a divided Congress, Piñera must also face the pressure of
social movements that want to deepen the reforms that Bachelet did not conclude.
Thus, with a management full of challenges, the new Chilean president takes a series of concepts
already known to the population in his first term. However, the great challenge is to please the
opposing sides of a fragmented congress and annul part of a conservative thinking. And its
difficult target is to please movements that seek social measures, without losing economic
growth.
Piñera took over the presidency of Chile on 11 October in a ceremony held in Valparaiso,
attended by great South American leaders, including President Michel Temer.
After taking part in Piñera's inauguration, Michel Temer highlighted that "Brazil and Chile have a
very strong commercial relationship and we share a similar worldview" in their Twitter account.
According to Itamaraty, Brazil is Chile's first trading partner in South America; and Chile, Brazil's
second largest trading partner in the region. The conservative's victory gave prominence to the
continental political trend on the right, with Mauricio Macri facing power in Argentina, Michel
Temer in Brazil, and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in Peru.
Luciana Lemgruber
International Relations
10
The new South America and the new
president of Chile
13. Events Calendar
12
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
ANATEL Board of
Directors Meeting
Local: ANATEL
Headquarters
Ordinary Meeting
of the Board of
ANVISA
Local: ANVISA
Headquarters
CONITEC MeetingCONITEC Meeting
ANATEL Board of
Directors Meeting
Local: ANATEL
Headquarters
International Air and Space Fair - FIDAE 2018
Local: Santiago, Chile
IX Latin American Congress of Palliative Care
Local: Santiago, Chile
International Air and
Space Fair - FIDAE
2018
Local: Santiago, Chile
VII LEAN SIX SIGMA CONGRESS - Health Innovation and Management Group (GIGS)
Local: Campinas, São Paulo
4th Blockchain
Annual Conference
Local: Nova York,
USA
Installation of the
permanent
committees of the
Chamber of
Deputies
Local: Brasília, DF
Seminar "Politics:
Social Networks,
Compliance and
Big Data“
Local: Brasília, DF
Event "Food safety,
sustainability and
consumer
protection“
Local: São Paulo, SP
Ordinary Meeting
of the Board of
ANVISA
Local: ANVISA
Headquarters
Ordinary Meeting
of the Board of
ANVISA
Local: ANVISA
Headquarters
Meeting of the
Tripartite
Interagency
Committee (CIT) of
the Ministry of
Health
Local: : PAHO / WHO
Auditorium
NABSHOW
Local: Las Vegas,
USA
NABSHOW
Local: Las Vegas, USA
304th Ordinary Meeting of CNS 2018
Local: Brasília, DF
Meeting of the
Green Bonds
Working Group –
MDIC
Local: Brasília, DF
Meeting of the
Working Group on
Cocoa – MDIC
Local: Brasília, DF
33rd GS1 Global Health Conference
Local: Bogota, Colombia
14. Events Calendar
13
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 1 2 3 4 5
Internal Ordinary
Meeting of the
Board of ANVISA
Local: ANVISA
Headquarters
Food and Hotel Asia 2018
Local: Singapore
X National Forum
on Technological
Innovation in
Health in Brazil
Local: Brasília, DF
International Seminar - The Future of Universal
Health Systems
Local: Brasília, DF
World Cocoa Conference – ICCO
Local: Berlin, Germany
66th Consultation on International Nonproprietary Names (INN) for Substances
Pharmaceuticals, promoted by the World Health Organization
Local: Geneva, Switzerland