Valuation Deck For The Indian Stock Markets

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Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com

Great educational resources for those curious to see how the market is valuing Indian Stocks fundamentally Valuation of Nifty50 Stocks http://bit.ly/valuenifty50 Valuation of Indian Consumer Stocks http://bit.ly/valueconsumer Valuation of Indian Banking & Financial Stocks http://bit.ly/valuebanknbfc Valuation of Indian Pharmaceutical Stocks http://bit.ly/valuepharma

Économie & finance

Valuation Deck For The Indian Stock Market
Awesome FREE educational resource

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The concept of economic moats was first made popular by Warren Buffett. In actuality, a moat is a water body around a wonderful castle that helps prevent being raided by enemies. The attractiveness of the castle would have lured enemies to attack. In a similar way, the superior returns of a business venture would invariably attract competition. To protect your business you would have to build significant competitive advantages that would help secure it. Branding Superior product offering Great distribution Size of operation Scalability Management quality Technology adoption IPR / patents / copyrights are some of the factors which help to build a moat. And several of these together help to broaden and deepen the moat. Businesses without moats are waiting to get raided. And we must watch the economic moats with a hawks eye to ensure that they are not being eroded. Especially in today’s times, when disruptive forces erode competitive advantages, we must ensure that it is enduring. However, it is not easy to understand whether the moat is eroding or not. Cause the effect of no moat or an eroding moat will show up much later in the deteriorating financial performance of the business. Hence the time to engage in a “moat checkup and review” is when the business is at its peak.

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Quick & easy system for finding stocks with multibagger potential If you were asked to find a multibagger from the listed universe of stocks you would obviously get bogged down. The sheer effort of having to go through each of the 5000 stocks and deciding on its multibagger potential would be, to put it mildly, overwhelming! And I guarantee that you would reach nowhere! Yet there has to be a better way of doing this. So why not invert the whole process and de-select stocks that that do meet the requirements of being investment grade. What you are left with is purely stocks that you would invest in. Next, we apply the proprietary tools to understand whether a stock can be a multibagger. At India Investors Club we refer to this process as the Criteria of Elimination in Stock Picking

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Please find attached, the Initiating Coverage Report on OCL India Ltd. OCL India Ltd (OCL) is well poised to benefit from the focused emphasis of the newly elected government on infrastructural development in East India. In line with this emphasis, OCLs timing of hiking cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA in March 2014 could not have been better. With the expanded capacity, we expect OCL to report healthy revenue 2 year CAGR of 26% to Rs.3067 crore and PAT growth of 65% to Rs.292 crore by FY16E. We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs.536 representing a potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of Rs.280, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement sold in FY16 of $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of capacity). The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per tonne.

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At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E. With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore. Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers). On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.

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Most commodities futures have been in a narrow trading range for quite a while now. However with volatility returning many have started to show signs of movement In this blog post we look at the commodities which hold promise. Corn, copper and soyabean are clear shorts while silver is on the verge of a break down. Gold though in a sideways consolidation could be a short term sell. Meanwhile crude oil and natural gas are hitting strong overhead resistances and could over the next few days put in some pullback. Platinum is still undecisive, sugar is a stock to watch for a buying opportunity and palladium is one lone metal which seems headed higher.

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The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem. Given the strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected. With a view to having a mid journey outlook on expected price performance of pharmaceutical stocks, we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow. The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.” Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid if backed by hard core fundamental study. In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis. As with all the content on this blog, the report will be provided FREE. However in order to make a point of the exclusivity of the content, we request blog readers to send us an email so that we could deliver it directly in your email inbox. This we request so that we could obtain your feedback on the same report so that we can improve on the content. We would also like to solicit your opinion on the type of content that readers find interesting so that future blog posts could be based more on reader interest rather than just what we think you should read.

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We initiate coverage on Petronet LNG Limited(Petronet) as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 151 (target PE of 11x FY2013) over a period of 15-18 months. At CMP of Rs 132.1, the stock is trading at 13.6x and 9.6x its estimated earnings for FY2012E & FY2013E representing a potential upside of ~13.6%. Petronet LNG is majorly engaged in the business of LNG procurement, transportation and regasification. Burgeoning natural gas demand supply mismatch in the country makes it inevitable that the additional demand would be met by imported LNG. Petronet LNG, with its Kochi terminal set to commission in Q4FY12 and expansion at its Dahej terminal, is all set to benefit from the current scenario. In addition, diversification plans into the power segment add further value to the company. We expect revenue & earnings growth of 26.1% & 36.5% CAGR respectively over the next three years. Favourable natural gas demand and supply to augur well for PLNG On the back of growing consumption, demand for natural gas is expected to grow at a faster rate of 16.3% (5 year CAGR) to 381 mmscmd compared to supply which is expected to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 6.8% to 202.9 mmscmd. This burgeoning demand supply gap is expected to be met through LNG imports and Petronet LNG with its expanded capacity is well placed to garner a major portion of this incremental demand. We expect the revenues of Petronet LNG to grow at a CAGR of 26.1% to Rs 21343.7 crore over the forecast period. Kochi terminal & Dahej expansion to drive volume growth The USD 850 mn Kochi LNG terminal of 2.5 MMTPA capacity is expected to commission in Q4FY12 which would be later expanded to 5.0 MMTPA by the end of FY13. Kochi terminal can help serve the Southern market where the landed cost of domestic gas is higher. The Dahej expansion to 12.5 MMTPA is expected to commence by FY13 with an additional jetty at Dahej at a cost of ~USD 980 million. Both these projects are to funded in a 70:30 Debt to Equity ratio. We expect the LNG volumes to grow from the 7.6 MMTPA in FY10 to 10.4 MMTPA in FY13. LNG pricing not a major concern Although the LNG pricing is linked to JCC, over the forecast period we do not expect significant cost increases as there is a fixed formula for pricing the sourced LNG. Also, with the company having back to back off-take agreements, we do not foresee any risk in passing on any of the increased costs. While the recent nuclear

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We initiate coverage on Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `975. At CMP of `727, the stock is trading at 16.2x and 14.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 respectively, representing a potential upside of ~34% over a period of 15 months. UV sales (XUV500 and Xylo) and LCVs (Maximmo, Genio and Gio) are expected to be the key drivers of growth, while the tractor business is expected to weather the cyclical downturn and experience moderate traction. In addition the tangible benefits of the Ssangyong acquisition would be felt over the medium term as the joint R&D efforts and new product launches materialize. We forecast revenues and earnings to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% and 10.7% to `40,062.3 and `3,169.7 crore, respectively over FY12-14.  XUV 500 and refurbished Xylo to sustain volume growth in the UV segment After having witnessed a CAGR of 23% over FY09-12, M&M UV sales are expected to moderate going ahead on account of new launches by competitors, rising fuel prices and higher interest rates. We expect M&M UV sales to post a CAGR of 13.2% over FY12-14 to ~2,60,000 units led by capacity ramp up of XUV 500 and strong demand for its existing products.  Weathering the cyclical downturn in tractor sales The tractor industry being cyclical in nature has been witnessing a downturn since November 2011, after posting robust growth in the preceding two years. We expect this moderation in growth to continue in the near term led by a host of new capacity additions which will affect pricing power, expectation of an unfavorable monsoon and rising interest rates, which would affect serviceability of tractor loans. However, favorable factors like increasing budgetary allocation towards the rural sector, rising non-farm usage, higher MSP among others are likely to partially offset the downturn. While CMIE expects the volumes to grow by 8% for the entire industry, we are less optimistic and expect much lower growth of ~6%. However, southern India which is under penetrated is expected to grow much faster than the industry growth. On the back drop of its new facility of 1,00,000 units p.a. being commissioned at Zaheerabad in Karnataka, we expect M&M the market leader to grow faster than the industry. We expect M&M (market leader with a share of ~40%) to post a CAGR of 7.5% over FY12-14 to reach ~2,72,000 units by FY14 and consequently revenues from this segment are expected to reach ~`11,500 crore by FY14 (CAGR of 8.6%). However, we expect significant pressure on margins led by higher raw material costs and lack of pricing power given the large capacity expansions across the industry.  LCV growth momentum to continue Despite being a late entrant in the commercial vehicles (CV) market, M&M has carved for itself an enviable market share of ~30% in a relatively short span of time. Although the growth in the LCV markets is expected to tone down to a CAGR of 14% (from a 3 year CAGR of 32.9% over FY09-11), we expect M&M to outperform th

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We initiate coverage on Wockhardt Limited (Wockhardt) as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 978 (target 10.0x FY14 P/E). At CMP of ` 565 the stock is trading at 3.4x and 5.8x its estimated earnings for FY2013E & FY2014E representing a potential upside of ~73% over a period of 18 months. With the contingent liability concerns addressed and bulk of FCCBs already repaid, the sale of nutrition business will lead to a substantial increase in cash which could be used to draw down debt or pursue organic / inorganic grow opportunities. Further its portfolio of high margin niche products and impressive FTF launches should provide for strong growth in revenues (12.3% FY11-14 CAGR) to ` 5311.2 crore and earnings (123.6% FY11-14 CAGR) of ` 97.8 /share by FY14. During the period 2003 through 2008, Wockhardt has traded mostly in line with the 1 Year forward PE multiple of its peers viz: Sun Pharma, Cipla, Lupin and Glenmark. However, post its derivative losses, Wockhardt’s EPS turned negative. Now that the balance sheet is all cleaned up and all contingent liabilities addressed, we expect that going forward, Wockhardt will catch up with its peers leading to a substantial re-rating of the stock.

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